Research On A Few Issues Of Comprehensive Evaluation Methods And Its Application In Medical Science

Objective:(1)To Solve the four problems of the comprehensive evaluation field in the world at present:①Because of lack of the accuracy measure of the sensitivity and stability of all kinds of comprehensive evaluation methods, the sampling errors cannot be estimated in the sampling research usually.②Inconsistency among the evaluation conclusions drawn by different evaluation methods exists in the multi-attribute evaluation.③The Problem of Inverted Sequence in Synthetic Appraisal.④The problem of lack of comprehensive evalution softwarepackage.(2) To further improve and perfect the static TOPSIS approach which is applied widely in the medicine and hygiene fields. What’s more, a novel dynamic TOPSIS method is presented.Methods:By reviewing the domestic and foreign research and considering the suggestions of experts, we make use of the Monte Carlo simulation technology to develop a stochastic simulation model of the sampling errors of comprehensive evaluation methods.Based on the results of this model,a novel thinking which can work out the problem of inconsistency among the evaluation conclusions drawn by different evaluation methods is proposed. That is combination of probability results.We find out the reasons of reverse order phenomenon of a variety of methods and put forward the solving solution by studying Ideal Point method,TOPSIS method, Osculating Value method, SAW method, Precedence Order method,RSR method and information entropy method.By means of analyzing and dicussing the defaults of the traditional static TOPSIS method, a novel modified TOPSIS approach is raised. Literature retrieval reveals that there are plentiful Multi-Dimensional Time Series Data which contains the time factor.But most researches adot the static synthetical evaluation methods which cannot reflect the dynamic changes of things. Based on the needs of comprehensive evaluation in medical scientific research, we come up with a fresh dynamic TOPSIS method, we studied the structure of many domestic and international excellent statistical softwares,and consulted ideas and suggestions from nominal group. Then we use Microsoft Visual Basic6.0、Microsoft Visio2002and VBA (Visual Basic for Application) to develop a comprehensive evaluation software (CES) based on Microsoft Excel2002. Moreover,we use CES1.0and SAS6.12to analyze the same data file on the same PC, One of the SAS programs has been published[143],the others have been adopted by book[144]. Main indexes with15-bit decimal fraction of different comprehensive evaluation methods was given by CES1.1and SAS6.12,which enabled us to compare the accuracy of CES1.1and SAS6.12.Results:1.This paper develops a stochastic simulation model of the sampling errors of comprehensive evaluation methods and gives the matlab programs of the model.2. This paper advances the conceptions of "The Overall Scheduling Priority"and "The Overall Average Scheduling Priority", and proposes a new sorting method of the results of comprehensive evaluation methods that is sorting the results in a ascending order according to " The Overall (Average)Scheduling Priority".3.This paper changes the conventional "Absolute conclusion" of comprehensive evaluation methods to "probability results " for the sample data.We can staple any results of comprehensive evaluation methods in accordance with "The Overall (Average)Scheduling Priority".4. This paper simulating the sampling errors of TOPSIS method, SAW method and RSR method finds that:①Even if the variables are independent and obey the normal distribution, the comprehensive evaluation values of some objects of TOPSIS method and SAW method may follow the normal distribution,while other objects may not comply with the normal distribution.Especially, all objects of RSR method disobey the normal distribution.②The comprehensive evaluation values of TOPSIS method, SAW method, RSR method have upper and lower limits:0≤Ci≤1,0≤Ai≤m,0<RSRi≤1o When the comprehensive evaluation values are close to the upper limit or lower limit, the comprehensive evaluation values may appear skew distribution.5.This paper proposes a novel thinking which can work out the problem of inconsistency among the evaluation conclusions drawn by different evaluation methods. That is, selecting proper methods from the existing combinatorial methods to combine " The Overall (Average)Scheduling Priority", in other words combination of probability results.6. The Ideal Point method, TOPSIS method, Osculating Value method, SAW method, Precedence Order method,RSR method and Information Entropy method all have reversal phenomena.7. The reasons of the Ideal Point method generating reverse are as follows:The ideal point calculation and the evaluation objects are closely linked.When the evaluation objects containing the optimum point or the pessimum point are added or deleted, the selection range of ideal solution is enlarged or reduced.Once the ideal points change,the distance between the evaluation objects and the ideal points change correspondingly.Then the order among the evaluation objects will easily alter, which leads to produce the reversal order.The reasons of the TOPSIS method generating reverse are as follows:①The computation of uniformization matrix;②The computation of the optimal decision schema and the inferior decision schema。The reasons of the Osculating Value method generating reverse are as follows:①The computation of standardization matrix;②The computation of the optimal point and the inferior point;③The computation of Ci=di/d-li/lThe reasons of the SAW method generating reverse are as follows:The selection of the maximum and minimum in standardized method of index.The reasons of the Precedence Order method generating reverse are as follows:The given method of preferential ordinal number and the evaluation objects are closely linked.When the evaluation objects that don’t contain maximum are added or deleted, the preferential ordinal numbers change inevitably,and the sorting results alter correspondingly.The reasons of the RSR method generating reverse are as follows:Index rank establishment method and the evaluation objects are closely linked.When the evaluation objects that don’t contain maximum are added or deleted, the rank and Rank Sum Ratio (RSR) change inevitably, and the sorting results alter correspondingly.The reasons of the Information Entropy method generating reverse are as follows:①The computation of uniformization matrix;②The computation of information entropy.8. The Absolute Ideal Point method, improved TOPSIS method,improved Osculating Value method and improved SAW method which presented by this paper can solve the reversal problem.9.This paper puts forward a novel modified TOPSIS approach.10. This paper proposes a new dynamic TOPSIS method basing on the index value and index increment.11. The Chinese comprehensive evaluation software (version1.1) has been successfully developed. It consists of modules of AHP, TOPSIS, RSR, grey correlation analysis, efficacy coefficient method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The size of CES1.1is about2.78MB. CES1.1can run on Microsoft Exce197or later and becomes a menu of Excel. The results of CES1.1are close to the results of SAS. The differences of the two softwares are lower than10-2, except that the differences between the results of RSR module of CES1.1and the results of SAS program of RSR are lower than10-7.Conclusions:1. The stochastic simulation model of the sampling errors of comprehensive evaluation methods developed by this paper is universal, flexible and convenient.This model is suitable for any sampling data and any comprehensive evaluation methods. It is an effective method to sort resulits according to "The Overall Average Scheduling Priority" noted by this paper.2. Even if the variables are independent and obey the normal distribution, the comprehensive evaluation values of TOPSIS method and SAW method may follow the normal distribution in sampling study,while other objects may not comply with the normal distribution.Especially, all objects of RSR method disobey the normal distribution. When the comprehensive evaluation values are close to the upper limit or lower limit, the comprehensive evaluation values may appear skew distribution.3. The new expression method and way of conclusions of comprehensive evaluation methods——"probability results " is more open and more practicable comparing with the conventional "Absolute conclusion".4. The combination method based on"probability results " is more scientific, reasonable and credible.5.The Ideal Point method, TOPSIS method, Osculating Value method, SAW method, Precedence Order method,RSR method and Information Entropy method all have reversal phenomena.6.The Absolute Ideal Point method, improved TOPSIS method,improved Osculating Value method and improved SAW method which presented by this paper all have strong rank preservation.7. For the methods which cannot eliminate the reverse problem such as Precedence Order method,RSR method etc, we should look round their valid range and conditions of actual data, and select a Evaluation objects set which has no change absolutely. There is no need for eliminating the reversed order problem of Information Entropy method whose reversed order problem is reasonable.We can adopt combination weighting approach combining with subjective weight which can reduce the reversal phenomena.8. The novel modified TOPSIS approach raised by this paper have strong rank preservation and can sovle the defects of Ci in traditional TOPSIS method.9. The new dynamic TOPSIS method raised by this paper not only inherits all the merits of the traditional static TOPSIS method,but also is an effective method.This method is suitable for three-dimensional data containing "evaluation objects"," evaluation index" and "evaluation time". It pay attention to "the past","the present" and " the future development trends".10. The results of CES1.1are reliable, which fills the blank that different demestic and international statistical softwares cannot process comprehensive evaluation data, lightens the researcher’s burden and promote the popularization of comprehensive evaluation methods.CES1.1is of better useful,friendly interface,easy operation in that it succeeded the style of a office software-Excel.It can meet the needs of person majored in statistics or not.