| Food security and water security are major issues which have been the relationship between the national economy and the people’s livelihood, the proposed virtual water concept provides a new approach to solve regional water security and food security. Continuing interregional virtual water trade has had a negative impact on the regional ecological environment and economic development, to solve these problems; it needs to deeply analyze the formation mechanism of the virtual water flow pattern and maintenance mechanism, which provides a scientific guidance for solving water crisis and food security crisis in China.In this paper, in accordance with the pattern, structure, process and mechanism of geography research ideas, learning from the disciplines of ecology, economics, hydrology, with the method of mathematical model analysis, the interpretation model analysis and GIS spatial analysis, as well as a combination of qualitative and quantitative, theoretical analysis and empirical research, virtual water flow patterns and their formation mechanism, system stability and maintenance mechanisms are deeply researched, which studied China’s major agricultural products (rice, wheat, corn), based on the theory of comparative advantage, natural resource reconstruction theory, resource flow theory and resource alternative theories, The matrix of the major crops virtual water flow is constructed and its causes are analyzed. The content of this section is the research foundation for the full text. First, China’s31provinces, cities and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) is divided into eight regions:Northeast (Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi), the Huang-Huai-Hai (Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui), Northwest (Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang), Southeast (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian), the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan), South China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan) and southwest (Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet). Virtual water flow pattern of China’s major agricultural matrix is constructed on this basis, and the virtual water import and export volume are estimated, the results showed that: the virtual water net transferred amount increases every year in China’s grain foreign trade, which is mainly influenced by the soybean. From1999to2010, the inter-district virtual water in China flows to the south from the north in the12years, the2007output reached the maximum313.3×108m3in2007and the minimum172.4×108m3in2003. In the eight regions, the net output area of virtual water is the Northeast and Huang-huaihai and the Yangtze River, the other five areas is the net input area, in which the South and Southeast are the main net input areas.By analysis of the virtual water flow pattern, it shows that virtual water trade theory in our country is not entirely applicable, for the protection of national food security, water security and political security, it should be based on national food self-sufficiency, and existing virtual water flow pattern is protected by taking effective measures.The temporal and spatial variations of virtual water changes in the total of China’s major crops products is analyzed by the improved spatial shift-share model. For exploring the virtual water flow pattern formation mechanism, the space shift-share model is established based on the national component, the regional structural component, the adjacent areas space structure component, the regional spatial effect component and the adjacent areas effect component, The virtual water changes in the total of crops (rice, wheat, and corn) is decomposed and analyzed from1999to2010in various areas of our country, the results show that:the increase or decrease of virtual water content of the main crops are not only related to the internal structure of the regional agricultural and agriculture competitive advantage, but also the internal structure of the adjacent areas of agriculture and agricultural competitiveness advantages. The type of change of virtual water content of the main crops products in all regions is further divided; the five impact types are identified by Minimum variance method in31administrative districts:dominant type of single factor, two factors, three factors, four factors and five factors. It can be seen that the size, structure and effect of the virtual water content affects the virtual water flow pattern, but not the only factor, the formation of the virtual water flow pattern is the result of the combined effects of multiple factors.The virtual water flow pattern formation mechanism is quantitatively studied by PLS model. By using the PLS model, the formation mechanism of the virtual water flow pattern of main crops products in China is analyzed by the seven aspects of population, crops resources, crops ecological environment, economy, technology and culture, traffic and virtual water increment, results show that:population affects the virtual water increment through crops resources, in turn, affects the virtual water flow; Economy mainly affects virtual water flow through transport and technology and cultural; Virtual water flow will react on crops ecological environment. Finally, the PLS models is adopted in this paper to analyze the relationship between the virtual water flows and it’s influencing factors. This paper objectively reveals the impact of the other factors except the factor of water resources on virtual water flow pattern. The research conclusion is available for guiding the rationality of the virtual water flow pattern, the trends and adjustment of future mobile, the implementation of the national subsidy policy, and the protection of the crops ecological environment. It can provide scientific basis and the policy implications for ensuring food security and water security, and so on, and it can provide references for the virtual water theory in the practical application in our country. Thus, it is further proved that the formation of the virtual water flow pattern is the result of joint action by multiple factors.The concept of ecological network security is introduced, and the stability of the network model of virtual water flow pattern is built and its sustainability analyzed. The formation of virtual water flow pattern is the result of joint action by national policy factors; therefore, in the next period of time, there will be no major changes to the virtual water flow pattern. For analyzing the stability of the network system of virtual water flow pattern, the concept of the ecological network security system is introduced, and the model of the network system stability is build, results show that:Between1999and2010, the number of the channel of the network system of virtual water flow pattern was in decline, and the channel capacity reduced in the year; the polymerization degree and the redundancy of the system fluctuating decreased; the usage rate reduced; the idleness increased; the network system indicators show that the stability of the network system of virtual water formed by the main crops in China’s inter-district flows down year by year. So, five response measures are put forward that include establishing the early warning system of food security, enhancing the food production, circulation and reserve capacity, implementing the internationalization strategy of food security, making virtue water strategy according to Chinese situation, strengthening agro-ecological protection and constructing agricultural ecological compensation mechanism. The inter-district agro-ecological compensation horizontal transfer payment model is built based on the virtual water flow pattern. It is initially solved that the agro-ecological compensation standard is vague and the compensation subject and object is unclear. The study of the agricultural ecological compensation aims at solving the agricultural development and ecological environment sustainability issues. Through the study achievements at home and abroad, the framework of the agricultural ecological compensation mechanism is put forward. To solve the problems about the uncertainty of the compensation standard as well as the compensation subject and object, the virtual water theory is introduced. The virtual water is taken as the carrier of agricultural ecological compensation; the agricultural ecological compensation ideas are formed based on the virtual water flow pattern. To take the whole nation as an example, the following conclusions can be obtained:the southeast area and the Southern China area are the only subject of compensation among the eight regions, while the other area is both the compensation subject and the compensation object; and the corresponding compensation amount is calculated.Study the relationship between virtual water and water resources bearing capacity. This paper introduces the virtual water as evaluation index of the water resources carrying capacity, and discusses the applicability of the virtual water strategy and the relationship between it and the water resources carrying capacity. Using the total water resources, total supply, such as13factors as the evaluation index of the water resources carrying capacity, the principal component analysis is used to comprehensive evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of north China. The results showed that the main driving factors of effecting water resources carrying capacity is economy, population, the resources of water and the virtual water flow net; the water resources carrying capacity is in the upward trend in North China; the Virtual water is an important factor of affecting the water resources carrying capacity, but the introduction of virtual water will not change the overall changes trend of water resources carrying capacity. |
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