Study On Formation And Transmission Mechanism Of Hog Price In China

Hog industry is the basic industry related to food safety in China and pork production accounted for about half of the world.In renent years,due to expanding markets and developing industry chain,hog price presented unstable state with overall upward trend in frequent rising and falling.How to stabilize hog price, consolidate the basic status of hog industry is an important practical issue that must be attached to.This article combined theoretical with empirical method, analyzed the influence of hog price to breeding benefit and supplies,the change rule of hog price, focused on the formation and transmission mechanism of hog price from horizontal and vertical dimensions,so as to provide theoretical analysis framework and empirical analysis foundations for slowing down hog price fluctuation, promoting sustainable development of industry chain.Finally some targeted countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.The study results showed that:(1) Hog price was the main reasons of the fluctuation of breeding benefit and farmers couldn’t benefit from price fluctuation. Hog supply was influenced by Cobweb cycle, feed price, seasonal factors, epidemic disasters,industry policy and so on. Adjustment to optimal level of hog slaughter needed about one year; Farmers made production decision mainly according to static expectation; The short-term and long-term elasticity of hog slaughter amount on price was low on the whole.(2) Hog price presented the characteristics of high frequent fluctuations due to the combined effects of inflation, seasonal, and a variety of internal and external factors.Hog price expectation was influenced by its own lags and price volatility, which had significant cluster phenomenon and didn’t have a significant asymmetry.(3)Hog price formation was influenced by residents’ income, hog supply as well as industry and monetary policy.In the long run,hog supply was guiding variable,and resident’ income had positive influence to hog price;In the short term,supply change was the main reason of hog price fluctuation;In the view of external environment,industrial support policy played a positive role in hog price and supply stability,excess liquidity had an overall negative impact to hog industry.(4) Hog price stability was the key to balanced development of price system of industry chain.In the long run, hog price was guiding variable of price system of industry chain and hog price was in low state of integration with feed and pork price; In the short term, hog price fluctuation was the main reasons of itself, pork, piglet price volatility,feed and pork prices were rigid relatively. Therefore, stabilizing hog price, promoting sustained development of hog industry in china need to improve the work in the following aspects:(1) Develop industrialization leading enterprises of slaughter and process industry to raise the level of industrial organization.(2)Advance the scientific and technological innovation of hog industry and standardized scale breeding so as to improve industrial quality.(3)Improve circulating efficiency of hog industry chain and operation mode of hog to raise the level of market integration of industry chain.(4)Construct the financial market system of hog to perfect the risk diversification mechanism of hog market.(5)Enhance the informationization construction of hog industry to increase the rationality degree of hog price expectation.(6)Perfect regulation policies of hog market, stabilize macroeconomic to create a stable developing environment of hog industry.The innovations of this article are listed below:One is the innovation of research method. The dynamic effect of hog price determinants and industry chain price system to random shocks were portrayed by SVAR models to reflect the structural relationships of endogenous variables. Two is the innovation of research conclusions. The hog market price leverage was analyzed more really by extended Nerlove model;The effect of hog price fluctuation to hog price formation was checked by GARCH-M model;The leading variables of hog price formation and industry chain price system were tested by ECM to provide decision-making foundations for stabilizing hog price and industry chain price system.