Study On Housing Price Bubble Evaluation And Prevention Strategies In China

The real estate industry is an important economic growth point in China， andthat the stable development of the real estate industry is vitally related to economicgrowth and the improvement of resident living standards. While the residential is acore composition of real estate industrial， which price is affected by the interactionof market supply and demand and other related factors. So it make great significancefor macro-regulation and price control decisions to understand the real estate marketchanges and acquire house price trend. Housing price research focuses on fiverespects: first， the formation mechanism of housing price; second， the accurateexpression method of housing price; third， the impact factors and their strength ofhousing price; fouth， the relationship between housing price and macroeconomicfactors; fifth， the assessment and pre-alert for housing price bubble.Comprehensively grasp of the five point problem， it can put forward more scientificand rational， more operational countermeasures and measures to promote residentialprice stability， to maintain long-term stable and healthy development of real estate，to reduce the negative effect of housing price fluctuation on macroeconomic.This paper mainly focuses on house price bubble evaluation and early warning.First， according to commodity and investment performance at different stages ofdevelopment， this paper has given a house price bubble formation mechanism andevaluation models under the guidance of the new classical economics analyticalframework， which has significant theoretical value. Secondly， it is the research ofprice for China’s real estate actual situation based on a large number of data ofdomestic and international. In addition， the author has10years of experience in thereal estate price monitoring， which is helpful to provide a scientific basis for thegovernment decisions and control policies，so as to promote the healthy developmentof the real estate industry， with important practical significance.This article discussed the housing price bubble formation mechanism， drawingon research ideas of residential market price theory， asset bubble theory， andhousing price bubble Measure Theory. Then it make an empirical analysis on China’shousing price bubble situation in recent years， using price earnings ratio and pricerental than. Based on the above， this article put forward a new evaluation index ofhouse price bubble--house price offside rate， in the analysis framework of emerging classical economics， then verified the indicator using of the historical data in Japan，the United States， and Hong Kong， and established warning method for house pricebubble. Finally， the paper estimated the China’s house price earning rate， houseprice rental rate and house price offside rate， and put forward suggestions on thehouse price monitoring and early warning based on the results right. This articlecontains four parts， nine chapters， as follows:The first part is the research basis， including the first Chapter I introduction andChapter II theory summary.The second part is the theoretical basis， including Chapter III housing pricesOverview and Chapter IV the mechanism of housing price bubble formation.The third part is the quantitative analysis section， including the fifth chapter，Chapters VI and VII， respectively， measure the classic house price bubbleindicators: house price earnings ratio， house price rental ratio. This paper constructesan new classical economics perspective housing price bubble measure indicator:house price drift rate， and based on the quantitative results， set monitoring and thepre-alarm interval at present.The fourth part is the conclusion of the study， including Chapter Ⅷ eighthSystem Construction Strategy of monitoring and early warning based on house pricebubble measure and Chapter IX Research Conclusions and prospect.This paper draws the following conclusions:1. Construction cost is the basis for the formation of house prices， but the effectis gradually reduced. The level of urbanization， residential prices continued to rise isthe basic macro factors， but its growth rate since the beginning of this century belowdomestic price increases， and its impact declines. Household income of urbanresidents increased and widening income gap is the direct cause of rising house prices，the proportion of the increase in investment demand; House price trends and supply ofaffordable housing accounted for reverse correlation， policy is the protection ofresidential housing market "stabilizer"; Changes in interest and exchange rates ineffect on housing prices gradually increased; Exists two-way causal relationshipbetween house prices and CPI.2. The dual property of consumer and investment goods fundamentally causeshouse price bubble. Chinese current house market mainly shows investment demandcharacteristics，current prices，per capita disposable income，prices and investmentincome are expected demand for house has a positive feedback effect，and the impactstrength of the same. Currently， the price elasticity of demand for residential houseprice bubble is not suitable for determining the critical value. 3. House price earnings ratio and house price rental ratio are two classic houseprice bubble evaluation indicator， but both were flawed: different stages ofdevelopment index values are not comparable， and without limits is difficult todetermine suitability. The results show that: the majority of our large and mediumcities house prices are unreasonably high.4. According to new classical economics theory， the paper design house priceoffset rate indicator: with housing and non-housing and non-housing producersrelative price of housing relative to the number of producers to change， which meansthat the real estate industry and the overall economy， the degree of adaptation. Thisindicator avoids inflation， economic development and income growth and otherfactors affecting the results of the evaluation， more reasonable. The results show thatChina in2012was0.19off the price， lower than2009’s0.44， indicating thathousing prices are overheated range，the real estate industry and the overall economyare incompatible degree of specialization， but there is room for adjustment.Innovation of this paper mainly includes the following three points:1. Based on New Classical economic theory， this thesis firstly proposed aevaluation indicator， house price bubble offset rate， which is an new attempt tocombine theories of resource allocation and division of labor organization. The newindicator effectively avoids the other factors to evaluate the evaluation on house pricebubble， and marry out an more scientific quantitative tool.2. Because the level of economic development and real estate market maturitydifferences have an impact on the Pre-alarm standard setting， this article constructs alayered house prices pre-alarm interval which based on the Level of economicdevelopment， population， housing supply and demand and other factors. This workis a breakthrough， and further enhances the applicability of the house price bubblepre-alarm standards.3. This article was first constructed housee price monitoring and Pre-alarmsystems，including the house price earnings ratio，house price rental ratio and houseprice deviation rate. The quantitative analysis is more accurate， integrated，andcomprehensive than similar studies.