Research Of The Optimal Output And Timing Of Development For Logistics Property Developers Under The Uncertainty

With the rapid development of China’s economy, especially the rapid growth of retail and manufacturing, needs of the logistics real estate rapid expansion, which caused the high degree of concern of the national logistics real estate industry. Aware of the business opportunities in the logistics real estate, many developers and logistics enterprises show a great interest in it too. Logistics real estate industry in China is still an emerging industry, the study of its investment decision-making is still quite scarce. The main object of the research is the scale and timing of logistics real estate investment. Combined with the specific properties of the logistics real estate investment projects and with Uncertainty nalysis point of view, this paper discusse the investment strategies of the logistics real estate enterprise using the real options approach on the basis of the summarize and absorbing domestic and foreign research results. The full text is consists of six parts.(1)Introduction. This part introduces the real options theory and method and the application of real options in real estate on the base of the existing international research results and achievements. This part put forward methods and analysis framework of this paper.(2) VAR-based market risk analysis of logistics real estate investment. This chapter first introduces the concept of risk and the basic principles and methods of computation of the risk measurement tools VaR. Finally, taking the Chengdu logistics real estate investment market as a example, this part selected market risk factors to build a market risk measurement model and have empirical analysis which take the completed amount of logistics real estate investment as the market risk examine object.(3) Logistics real estate land investment scale and timing of conversion. This chapter first define the properties and characteristics of logistics real estate land, then discuss the size and timing of logistics real estate land conversion issues in the case of land prices obey arithmetic Brownian motion. Finally, this chapter have expand reseach considering the tax factor.(4) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in perfectly competitive market. This part mainly use the idea of real options analysis to construct a discrete analysis of a two-stage real options model and have comparative static analysis to discuss the scale and timing of logistics real estate development in the case of a perfectly competitive market (real estate prices exogenous).(5) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in duopoly market. This chapter first introduces related research of duopoly real estate market, then analyzes the development scale and timing of single developer in a duopoly market and the development scale and timing in different development scale. Finally, this part analyze the development scale and timing of the leading developer and the interaction of two oligopolistic developers.(6) Research of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in Complete monopoly market. This chapter first have analysis of the logistics real estate investment scale and timing in Monopoly logistics real estate market in the case of stochastic demand and nonlinear cost function. Then considering the present value of the project construction costs, this chapter analyze the logistics real estate investment scale and timing when both the investment cost and the demand for logistics real estate are stochasticIn short, this paper have a analysis of logistics real estate investment scale and timing which based on uncertainty, continuous time and real option methods. This study makes up for the lack of domestic research in this field and enriches the research work and conclusions. This study can not only help the logistics real estate developers to make rational investment decision but also provide theoretical support for government when it have logistics real estate projects planning.