Analyzing And Modelling Evacuation Behavior For Intensive Passenger Flow Based On The Differentiation Of Individual Features

In recent years,the risk of panic and crowded stampede in public places has increased consistently,especially because of the fire,earthquakes and terrorist attacks.It is a hot problem that how to decrease or avoid casualties and property losses in emergency.The process of evacuation is the phenomenon of the interaction between individuals and groups.The lack of research on interaction mechanism and the individual behavior simulation is the main bottlenecks of crowd organization and evacuation analysis.Although many phenomenon and processes in the recognition and analysis of evacuation have made significant achievements,we found that the pedestrian’s behaviors often were ignored.The pedestrians were simulated as particles,so it was lack of study on relationship between individuals’ behavior and crowd evolution.It was less rarely involved of physical characteristics,cognitive characteristics and psychological characteristics in simulation.But these factors have important effect on pedestrian evacuation decision-making behavior based on Social psychology theory.Pedestrian organization and evacuation simulation are necessary way for safety assessment in crowded places,so,it is significative to study on the behavior of individuals and groups deeply,and to explore group evacuation model based on individuals’ differential behavior.Based on the survey of cognition and decision-making behavior,combined with psychology,behavioral science theory,we analyzed the socioeconomic factors of cognitive and psychological reaction,and revealed the crowd movement behavior under the influence of individuals’ social behavior,and the individuals’ behavior under the rule of crowd movement.We parsed the pedestrian evacuation decision-making mechanism in time and space dimensions.We also analyzed the response of decision-making and escape movement phase,from the pedestrian insight into danger and judging,to make an exit decision,began to escape,until the whole process of successful evacuation.Throughout the whole evacuation process,the pedestrian’s decision behavior takes place constantly.The differentiation of individuals’characteristics and environmental characteristics and the decision-making ability result in the personalized response decision-making behavior.Based on behavioral decision mechanism,we established a model framework of individual escape behavior in crowded places.The model framework was made of evacuation time decision-making model based on differentiation of rational behavior,individual cognitive exits preference model,and dynamic route choice model based on differentiation of rational behavior.In the first stage the model was based on differential rational behavior.It analyzed the evolution of emergency and the escpe choose threshold of individuals,and established the quantitative equations connecting the evacuation time and social impact factors.In the second stage,based on the survive of physical characteristics,cognitive characteristics and decision-making behavior,the quantitative equations between exits choice and individual characteristics was established,and finally the pedestrian’s exits choice was predicted.The individual choice differences of exits were described by the model based on individual spatial recognition in emergency.In the third stage,we build a utility function of individual route choice,which consided expected escape time,barrier resistance,regional service level,individualized cognitive level.Based on heterogeneity,different behavior resulted from the basis differences of individual cognitive and logical rules,and final escape routes were formed.Based on the established models,the ground floor of a Beijing south station was chosen to analyze the pedestrian behavior.We collected the flow,population density,individual speed,and path.The escape time and initial OD matrix were predicted.To apply the route choice model,we modelled the emergency in Beijing South station.Compared calculation with practice test,this paper puts forward the individual escape behavior modal which near the practice condition,right calculate formula and method and creditable test result.The models provide technical support for facility layout,design of entrances and exits and emergency evacuation.