Analysis On Waterway Traffic Accident Cause

With the sustained and stable growth of China's foreign trade,the continuous improvement of quay berth and other infrastructures,and the continuous increasing of possessing capacity of ships,waterway traffic is playing a more and more important role in economic society development.Many potential security problems of waterway traffic are followed.Waterway traffic accidents especially serious and extremely serious accidents happen regular,which seriously threaten people's lives and property,influence and restrict the development benefits of economic society.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to develop targeted accidents prevention and control measures to in-depth study the cause of the waterway traffic accidents.Waterway traffic system is a complex dynamic system composed of human,ship,environment,management and other factors.Waterway traffic accident is the damage process to human and property caused by the disorderd coupling of these influence factors.The relationship between the influence factors and occurred of accidents reflects the potential characteristics and laws of accidents,so the study of the influence factors is helpful to excavate the deep causes of accidents.Waterway traffic accidents are divided into different grades according to the severity of the consequences.Among them,serious and extremely serious waterway traffic accidents cause greater economic losses and casualties than general accidents.However,most of the existing water traffic accident related research treat all the severity of accidents as the same.It is difficult to determine if the serious and extremely serious accidents is a simple expansion of the general accident,if them have the same influence factors,action mechanism and occurrence law.Therefore,on the basis of considering the different severity of the accidents,this paper conducts in-depth study on the cause of waterway traffic accidents using classification,decision tree,game theory methods from the perspective of the relationship between accidents and human,ship,environment,management and other factors.The study contains the following three areas:the factors affecting the severity of accidents,the combination modes of influence factors of the serious and extremely serious accident,the safety supervision of accidents.The details are as follows:Firstly,the waterway traffic accidents influencing factors set is constructed and quantified based on the accidents investigation reports of China.It constructs model of influencing factors that affect waterway traffic accidents severity by using the classification theory in data mining.Through the empirical analysis,it indentifies the core factors influencing the accident severity classification.Secondly,it constructed accidents severity influencing factors decision tree models on the basis of identified accidents severity influencing factors.It uses comparative analysis approach to optimize the key parameters.Combination modes of influencing factors of serious and especially serious waterway traffic accidents are extracted by analyzing the decision tree and the corresponding reasoning rule set.Finally,it analyses the intrest linkage among the government regulators,the shipping companies and the crew from the perspective of safety supervision of water traffic accidents.The non-cooperative game models between them are construced.By solving and analyzing Nash equilibrium of models,it is to explore the root causes of water traffic accidents induced by safety supervision and put forward corresponding countermeasures.