Research On The Evolution Law And Control Mechanism Of Network Group Events

With the development and popularization of the internet and intelligent mobile communication,the frequency of the network group events is higher and the impact is huge.The network group event is a special kind of mass event,and the germination,development,eruption and regression of the event are all in the virtual society.Network group events are often accompanied with contradictions and conflicts of interest demands,causing the netizen's concerns,controversy and evaluation on the hot events.The netizen's conformity psychology and the opinion leaders' public opinion guide will make the attitude of the netizen impact on each other interactively,thus form a more concentrated support,neutral or disagree,causing agglomeration events in the network environment,have a certain degree of influence on the social stability.In the face of all kinds of complex network group events,how the government can grasp the law of evolution of the network group events,and actively explore effective prevention strategies,are problems that needs to be solved urgently in the research of network group events.In recent years,many scholars have studied the evolution law and the control mechanism of the network group events with qualitative and quantitative method,these results provide an important reference for our further study.In this paper,the essence of the network group events is studied firstly.The relationship between the network group events and other related concepts such as the internet public opinion,etc.is clarified.The evolution factors of network group events are found from the two aspects of macro and micro through case analysis.Polynomial fitting,gray theory,time series,BP neural network and Logistic regression method are used to get the prediction models for the life cycle of the network group events.The evolution law of the network group events is found from the macroscopic angle.Based on the principle of dynamics in the SIS infectious disease model,the mathematical model of the spread of the network group events is provided,MATLAB is used to solve this model and get the simulation.The internal and external factors that influence the outbreak of the network group events are analyzed.Two game models are provided for the network group events with the cases,the equilibrium points of the game models are drived,the influence of the various parameters on the equilibrium points is analyzed.Based on the cellular automaton theory,a simulation model and a platform of the network group events are given.From the micro perspective,the opinion leader,netizens category,firmness coefficient and time attenuation coefficient are used to simulate the trends of the network group events and provide guidance for the supervision of the network group events.At last,based on the research conclusions before,a set of feasible government control mechanism are provided in five aspects which include the early-warning mechanism,guide mechanism,publishing mechanism,coordinating mechanism and repair mechanism.The main innovation of this paper has four aspects.Firstly,through the historical data of specific cases,and according to the different types of network group events,polynomial fitting prediction model,grey prediction model,the time series forecasting prediction model and BP neural network prediction model are given for the macro evolution.The polynomial and Logistic regression methods are used to study the life cycle law of the evolution of the network group events can be calculated.Combined with the specific case,the duration time of the life cycle of each stage can be calculated.Secondly,based on the principle of system dynamics,a dynamic evolution model of SIS infectious disease model is sonstructed.The factors which lead to the outbreak of the network group events are divided into two types of internal and external factors.Under the effect of the promoting function and stop function,the network group event participants and non participants can exchange in each other.According to the simulation results,a threshold is found in the process of the network group event,the government and the relevant functional departments can take different intervention measures to effectively control the evolution of the network group events according to the threshold.Thirdly,two game models between the government and the netizen are given.The dynamic evolution equations and the equilibrium points are deduced.The dynamic evolution law of the network group events is got by analyzing the decisions of the government and the netizen when they have conflicts in interest.Fourthly,based on the principle of cellular automaton,a simulation evolution model and a platform of the network group events are provided.In the cellular automaton simulation model,by using the traversing of mobile cell,the evolution of group opinion in the network group event is analyzed.In the simulation platform,the reasonable firmness coefficient is selected according to the different quality of the netizen,different numbers and types for the network opinion leaders are set up,and the time attenuation coefficient is introduced,thus the evolution law of the network group events is simulated thoroughly.Then the character of the outbreak of the network group events is analyzed according to these data characteristics,and all these work can provide the policy-making reference for the government to deal with the prevention and control.