A Study On The Path Selection Of Balance Of Payment Rebalance In USA And Northeastern Asia

The2008global financial crisis makes the world economic imbalances a hot issue among scholars. At the same time, in order to reduce the impact of the crisis, recover from the crisis as soon as possible, the world's economic rebalancing and route choice has become the focus of many scholars and policy makers, has important theoretical and realistic significance.Due to the Balance of Payments (BoP) imbalance is an important part of the world economic imbalances, so the path selection of BoP become a research starting point of the world economy rebalancing of this dissertation. At the same time, as the United States and northeast Asian economies is a typical representative of BoP imbalance, so this dissertation take the United States, China, Japan and South Korea as the research object, analyzing the reason for these countries'balance of payments rebalance path selection, and provide a reference for China's path selection of BoP.With theoretical review and empirical research, this dissertation take the difference of internal structure and economy development as the important cause of the world economic imbalances.Therefore, to carry on the policy adjustment to the imbalance of balance of payments, as the representative of the world economic imbalances, must from two aspects, whiten is external economy and internal economy, and give priority to internal adjustment policy. From the perspective of United States, according to the simulation results of the internal economic policy of quantitative easing policy, exchange rate policy play a positive role on the improvement of the U.S. balance of payments, on the other hand, reduction of the enterprise income tax and import tariffs on manufacturing policy worsened the balance of payments, but this two policy is beneficial to the recovery of the internal economy of United States, especially in manufacturing industry.And the external economic adjustment policy is given priority to TPP and TOP, although join these two agreements is beneficial to reduce the trade deficit, but the effect is very limited, however, join TPP and TTEP has more obvious effects of internal economic boost to the United States.Therefore, the U.S. balance of payments rebalance path is not reduce the deficit directly as the main target, but increase the employment, promote its internal economic growth, and through policy combination way to rebalance the balance of payments deficitFrom Japan's point of view, in the case of a rare trade deficit of Japan recently, the priori goal of japan's international payments adjustment is keeping the balance of payments surplus, the specific policy path to maintain BoP surplus is unlimited quantitative easing policy and exchange rate depreciation policy, both policies effect to improve Japan's balance of payments surplus was significantAt the same time, in order to cope with the crisis and stimulating domestic economy, Japan has introduced method of lower corporate taxes and increase government spending as well, even though these policies will increase the balance of payments deficit, but in combination with monetary policy the deficit will be offset entirely.and the combination is beneficial to promote Japan's internal economic growth at the same time.From the point of the external policy, join the TPP and RCEP has a similar effect to japan,which is only a slightly increase of trade deficit with japan's trade partner, at the same time, join these two agreements has a huge role in promoting the growth of GDP and Japan's welfare level,so accoding to this result, Japan has a strong willing to join the two agreements.From South Korea's point of view, its international balance of payments equilibrium path is similar to the United States, which does not seek the balance of payments surplus increase, and the main policy goal is on internal economic incentives.For South Korea's external economic policy, the TPP and RCEP have a obvious internal economic stimulus effect to South Korea, but these two agreements will reduce net exports of South Korea.From China's point of view, the goal of rebalancing international payments of China is obvious, which is reduce the massive BoP surplus, and stimulate the internal economic growth as well. But according to the simulation results of China's fiscal and monetary policy combination, but this policy combination have a negative effect for the goal of rebalancing BoP. Thus, the path selection of China's BoP rebalance should be reduce the money supply, increase government spending, and guide the RMB exchange rate appreciation slowly. From China's external economic point of view, join China-Japan-Korea FTA with a reasonable protective tariff rate is one of the effective means to rebalance the BoP of china. And to the TPP, china's internal and external economies will face a economical loss if china don't join TPP. Only if South Korea joined TPP and implement full tariff cuts will be in accordance with China's international balance of payments adjustment target.This dissertation is divided into six chapters:the first chapter is introduction.The main background and significance of this dissertation, and the related research literature review, then pointed out the innovations and shortcomings of this dissertation.The second chapter introduces the world economic imbalances and the related theory of rebalancing adjustment.the main purpose of this chapter is introduce the explanation of internal to external economic imbalances and its effect on the adjustment of economic from the perspective of theory.And introduces the GTAP model research methods of policy evaluation. The third chapter is the main performance of the world economic imbalances and reason analysis.Through the description of the present situation of the world economic imbalances and empirical analysis, from the perspective of reality to explain the reasons of world economic imbalances and the internal economic effect to the world economic imbalances.The fourth chapter analysis the path choice of rebalancing international payments, by summing up both internal and external policies that the United States carry out during and after the crisis, simulate the impact of these policy to the balance of payments, and take different kinds of policy effect as the basis of U.S. balance of payments equilibrium path to choose. The fifth chapter analysis Japan and Korea BoP equilibrium path selection, the structure of this chapter is similar to the fifth chapter. Sixth chapter analysis the path selection of China's rebalancing of balance of payments. By summarizing China's economic policies since2008international financial crisis, this chapter evaluated the policy effect of rebalancing china's BoP, then on the basis of these effects this chapter analysed the path selection of china to rebalance the BoP, and finally put forward some policy Suggestions.