Study On The Effects Of Industrial Structure On Economic Growth Quality In China

With gradual disappearance of demographic dividend and old bonus from reform, the bottleneck of resource & environment to economic growth is more and more obvious, and new bonus from reform is still in incubation stage, coupled with the external market downturn continue since the financial crisis of 2008, China's economy steps into ?the new normal?, and facing a very complex situation with overlapping of three periods of growth rate shift, painful structure adjustment and early stimulus digestion. How to adapt to the new normal, which requires us that must break traditional inertial thinking of ?priority quantity?, and pay more attention to the quality of economic growth, promote sustained and steady growth of economy by the way of improving quality.The quality of economic growth has narrow sense and generalized sense. Narrow economic growth quality generally refers to efficiency of economic growth; generalized economic growth quality has very rich connotation, together with diversification in different contexts, which is needed with a multi-dimension and multi- index system to reflect. Most of the related researches on quality of economic growth was focused on two aspects: clarifying the connotation of economic growth quality in generalized sense or conducting empirical evaluation. In the empirical studies, the generally used methods included the relative index method, AHP, entropy method, factor analysis method and principal component analysis method etc. Due to the reform and opening up passed just over three decades, macroeconomic data is with small sample characteristics, meanwhile, the indicators are too many and maybe exist multicollinearity. The traditional evaluation methods depend on big sample hypothesis, or can not do indicator reduction to eliminate multicollinearity, this leads to a certain degree of distortion of evaluation results. Therefore, it is necessary to further develop evaluation method with matching the problem characteristics of small sample and multiple index, to enrich tool box selection of evaluation methods of economic growth quality; secondly, it is necessary to further analysis the main cause that China's economic growth quality is not high, so as to find the breakthrough point to improve quality of economic growth.Based on background which China's economic growth quality is needed to be improved in a three-period overlapping, and the academic researches on economic growth quality are gradually deepening, from the perspective of industrial structure optimization and upgrading, this paper led into soft set method and support vector machine as main tools to measure quality of China's economic growth and effects of industrial structure on economic growth quality, and according to the influencing relationship of industrial structure on quality of economic growth, to put forward a concrete and feasible path to improve quality of economic growth by means of restructuring and adjustment of industrial structure.First, based on interpretation of the concept of narrow economic growth quality, this paper measured China's narrow economic growth quality by use of Malmquist index method on the basis of data envelopment analysis, note that narrow quality of economic growth is efficiency of economic growth. The research results showed that: the index of economic growth quality improved gradually, but the rate was still relatively slow. Divide the index into technical progress, scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency, we obtain that technical progress is the main contribution to the improvement of economic growth quality, while scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency are not obvious.Secondly, on the basis of summarizing the existing researches of international and domestic, combined with the new normal context, this paper defined the generalized economic growth quality as economic, social and environmental coupling development, subsequently summarized as six dimensions including efficiency of economic growth, tendency to optimization of economic structure, stability of economic system, innovation of economic-driven, shareness of economic welfare, inclusiveness of resources & environment, and established a corresponding system of evaluation index. By using of integrated evaluation method based on parameters reduction of soft sets, this paper evaluated generalized economic growth quality of C hina, and calculated deviation degree of quantity and quality of economic growth. The research results showed that: the generalized economic growth rate significantly lags behind growth rate of GDP, the departure of quality and quantity is often the case, it has improved and appeared signs of simultaneous development in recent years. This paper futher analyzes the main symptoms of problem that cause inconsistencies in quantity and quality.Again, according to mechanism of industrial structure change on economic growth quality, this paper took production value structure, employment structure, industrial development, rationalization and optimization to build meas uring index system of industrial structure, utilizing least square-support vector regression combined with soft sets, calculated the impact of industrial structure change on economic growth quality in China over the years. The research results showed that: the impact of various industrial structure indicators on economic growth quality embodied obvious stage characteristics. At the same time, rationalization and optimization of industrial structure have greater impaction on quality of economic growth, especially rationalization.Finally, this paper put forward a feasible path of promoting economic growth quality by the way of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Based on analysis of influential effect of industrial structure on economic growth quality, some concrete countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to enhance economic growth quality of China through adjustment of industrial structure.