| In total emissions Chinese sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and other major pollutants and greenhouse gases has ranked first in the world in the background, natural gas as the representative of the clean low-carbon energy plays an increasingly important role in the overall energy landscape. Especially with the continuous further development of urbanization, the importance of natural gas in China's energy security pattern will undoubtedly become more prominent. However, the strategic position of natural gas in China rising at the same time, natural gas has become increasingly prominent security issues. Since 2008,China was the rising dependence on foreign natural gas,2009 China's dependence on foreign natural gas reached 5%, in 2010 reached 11.8%,in 2011 reached 24.3%,in 2012 to reach 28.9%,in 2013 to reach 31.6%,Continued to climb to 32.2% in 2014.Along with the accelerating process of urbanization, in the case of natural gas supplied by the resource constrained peak, the existing regulatory pricing mechanism caused the demand for natural gas resources excessive growth, deterioration of the security situation of China's natural gas. China's natural gas safety issues is an unavoidable reality, develop appropriate countermeasures based on a comprehensive assessment of the security risk has become imperative.The purpose of this paper is, based on the theory of natural gas safety, for China's actual conditions, in depth analysis of the supply, demand and price factors affecting the safety of China's natural gas, construction of China's comprehensive evaluation index system of natural gas safety, application of BP neural network to the analysis and simulation of the comprehensive evaluation of natural gas safety status in China, provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for the protection of national security and operational safety of the national economy and gas. Through systematic research, this paper's conclusions and results are as follows:1.From the gas demand and other aspects of the use of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors affecting the demand for natural gas in China's security. On the basis of the theory of energy demand, cointegration and error correction model, the distinction between reform and trends of business as usual scenario two different situations, predicted China's gas demand for long-run equilibrium. The results show that, under two different scenarios, by 2030 the differences Chinese natural gas consumption reached 330 billion cubic meters or more. This suggests that, from the demand point of view, the rapid growth in demand for natural gas is not only closely related to the process of industrialization and urbanization, the demand for natural gas is also regulated under the current pricing mechanism due to "excessive" growth are closely related.2.From the supply and transportation of natural gas resources and other aspects of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of China's natural gas supply safety factor. On the basis of the theory of peak oil and gas, using Logistic model was the peak of Chinese natural gas supply forecast. The results show that China's natural gas production will continue to grow in 2028 will appear a peak supply of natural gas production. This suggests that, from the perspective of resource supply, resource supply of natural gas by exposure to peak oil and gas resources constraints limited growth. Analysis of long-run equilibrium binding foregoing gas demand forecast of China's natural gas imports. The results showed that, after the peak supply and demand gap will further increase, and the trend of supply and demand gap still under scenarios more apparent.3.In reviewing the historical evolution of domestic and international natural gas pricing mechanism based on the analysis of the current situation and problems of China's natural gas pricing mechanism. For a long time, the cost-plus pricing mechanism caused the failure of price signals, over-amplification of the natural gas demand, exacerbated by supply and demand, not only for the safety of natural gas had a negative impact, but also a price mechanism reform process in the price of the power source. Use VAR model to analyze the natural gas price movements conducted on the general price level. The results showed that natural gas prices led to the general price level rose to a lesser extent, and there is a certain lag, the negative impact of the price mechanism reform led to rising gas prices will be less than the resulting positive effect to curb excessive demand for energy generated.4.The proposed building China Security of natural gas, systematic, scientific importance, dynamic and simplicity five principles from the natural gas supply needs for security, safety, security and import price safety four dimensions build China Natural Gas security index system, the use of improved entropy method to determine the index weight. BP neural network method to build China comprehensive evaluation model gas safety were exploratory research, and to assess the future of natural gas in China's security posture through dynamic monitoring simulation. The results showed that natural gas safety risks under open conditions in China is facing increasing.5.From the efforts to develop coalbed methane as the representative of unconventional natural gas, natural gas price reform the existing mechanism, the tax system, regulatory models and developing natural gas reserves, and other natural gas proposed to enhance the safety level of Chinese countermeasures. Coal Gas solve right right two overlapping disputes problems and create a good institutional environment and dynamic mechanism for the development of coal-bed methane as the representative of unconventional gas. China set the direction of reform of natural gas pricing mechanism that links and separating natural monopoly natural monopoly sectors, sectors regulated natural monopoly, natural monopoly sectors to competition from monopoly pricing net cost plus method return values to the competitive market method for pricing changes, let the price to reflect changes in market supply and demand situation and the scarcity of resources, and oil and other competing alternative energy form a reasonable price relations. Gas tax system reform direction of China, the combined resources tax and mineral resources compensation, the proportional compensation to build a resource depletion and the differential tax rates, increase dynamic prospecting and mining rights fee standards, natural gas levy special benefits payments. Directions China gas regulatory reform model is to relax economic supervision, strengthen social supervision, take the longitudinal split to break the monopoly of the way to achieve a competitive market structure and regulatory approach. To develop natural gas reserves, to build on the ground and underground gas storage LNG gas combined gas reservoir system.The innovation of this paper is:First, the current lack of comprehensive research in the field of natural gas safety systems, by building a comprehensive framework of China's comprehensive evaluation of the safety of natural gas, to be innovative in the topic. Second, the empirical analysis in the past using a linear method different areas of energy security. In this paper, a method to introduce complex nonlinear systems in the field of energy and other empirical research, is a new attempt on the comprehensive evaluation of the safety of China's natural gas, also provides a new research ideas and methods for comprehensive evaluation of energy security, to be innovative research methods. |
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