| In the second half of 20th century, a change trend in the characteristics of labor skill demand differentiation has emerged in labor markets of Europe and United States. The increase of relative demand and employment proportion of high skill labor represented by college graduates and relative wage of high skill labor and low skill labor make employment skill structure show the characteristic of "upgrading". Since the 90's, labor force employment has showed the trend of "polarization". Similar to employment upgrading, the employment and income proportion of high skill labor have still significantly increasing. The difference is employment and wage status of other labor has become divided. Compared with medium skill labor, the employment and income of low skill labor has slowed down and even increased. If occupations are sorted by skill level, the employment proportion and wage growth of different skill level occupations showed a non-monotonic "U" type. There have been a lot of theoretical and empirical researches on the evolution of employment skill structure from the perspectives of skill biased technological change and "routinization" model, intermediate goods trade and offshore outsourcing.Under the background of labor polarization in developed countries, the employment skill structure in developing countries is also changing. Under the new normal, the strengthening of technology innovation, the transformation of economic upgrading to innovation driven and positive integration of global industrial value chain in the frame of capital flow and industry transfer have made employment skill structure appear different from the past in China. However, current domestic researches mostly focus on manifestations, causes and countermeasures of rise in the employment and income proportion of high skill labor, researches on labor polarization are relatively few. The paper follows the logical thinking of "development situation--influence factor--economic effect--optimal path", systematically analyzes development trend, antecedents and consequences of labor polarization, puts forward to countermeasures and suggestions to perfect labor skill supply and demand matching, improve labor skill level and promote the coordinated development of employment and economic growth starting from the background of technological progress, trade openness, industrial structure upgrading, industrialization, urbanization development and labor mobility.First of all, the paper reviews evolution history and development path of labor employment and wage structure since 1978 in China, describes characteristics and rules of overall employment skill structure change and differences between industries and regions. Research results show that employment structure and wage structure in China also experienced the development trend from "upgrading" to "polarization". The labor polarization presents "N" type rather than "U" type which is different from Euro-American countries.Compared to the medium skill labor, the significant increase of high skill labor employment and moderate increase of low skill labor employment make the labor polarization show a characteristic of "polarized upgrading".Secondly, the paper theoretically and empirically analyzes influencing factors of labor polarization from the perspectives of skill biased technological change, trade openness, industrial structure upgrading and urbanization based on economic and social development reality in China. Theoretical research shows that skill biased technological change makes technology and skill complementary which leads to the increase of high skill labor' relative demand and relative wage. Under the background of capital embodied technological change, the import of intermediated goods, foreign direct investment and technology spillover effect increase relative demand of high skill labor. Through quality-skill complement mechanism and playing a comparative advantage, the exports of intermediate goods respectively improve relative demand increase of high skill labor and low skill labor. Industrial structure upgrading and urbanization play a role on labor employment of each skill lever from different directions and paths. Based on 2001-2012 provincial panel data, the paper empirically investigates influencing factors of labor force polarization by constructing dynamic panel model, introduces cross terms to analyze interaction between influencing factors, studies regional differences by dividing into east, middle and west. The results show that skill biased technical change, technology spillover of intermediate goods imports and urbanization increase relative demand of high skill labor, foreign trade and offshoring increase relative demand of low skill labor, FDI and industrial structure upgrading have nonlinear effects of "U" type for skill demand. Further analysis show that technological progress has inhibited the driving effect of FDI and industrial structure upgrading on low skill labor employment, enhanced their role in promoting high skill labor employment. Trade openness has weakened the role of technical progress on high skill labor employment, restrained the relative demand of industrial structure upgrading on high skill labor. The coupling development of urbanization and industrial structure upgrading increased more demand for high skill labor.Thirdly, the paper investigates economic effects of labor force polarization from two dimensions of economic growth and income inequality, empirical analyzes the relationship between labor force polarization, economic growth and income inequality by constructing fixed effect panel model. From the aspect of polarization's effect on economic growth, the increases of high skill labor's employment proportion and the complementation of skill-biased technological change and skill labor promote economic growth. Low skill labor including massive migrant workers support rapid development of low cost industrialization and urbanization which ultimately have a hindering effect on economic growth because of lacking lasting power. From the aspect of polarization's effect on income inequality, the relative wage increases of high skill labor lead to the expansion of income gap, however the increases in endogenous skill supply will inhibit the expansion. The relative wage increases of low skill labor will narrow income gap, but income gap will show a trend of expansion due to lack of sustained wage increases.Finally, as a general trend in the evolution of labor market employment skill structure, polarization is closely connected with labor employment status, skill income gap and macro economy development. Based on theoretical and empirical research, the paper puts forward to governance measures from the aspects of increasing high skill labor supply, improving overall level of labor skill, promoting technological innovation, narrowing income gap between different skill labor, actively participating in international economic division and promoting industrial structure upgrading to improve skill supply and demand matching, promote positive interaction between employment and economic growth and provide ideas for relevant system design and policy making. |
PDF Full Text Request