| In recent years,operation environment of commercial banks experienced significant changes.Enhancing competition in the financial sector,diversified financial demands and accelerating pace of integrated financial services posed a challenge to commercial banks on sustainable growth of profit.While commercial banks felt most acutely the shock from interest rate liberalization,they continuously adjusted their revenue structure,vigorously developed their non-interest business with continuously increasing scale of and income from non-interest business and gradually transformed their profit-making mode.At present,development of non-interest business,as an important strategy of various commercial banks,causes widespread concerns from the industry and academia.In-depth studies have been carried out on non-interest business overseas.Consensus has been materialized on causes of development of non-interest business but no consensus has been reached on benefits and risks of banks brought about by non-interest business.Non-interest business of commercial banks started late in China and related researches lagged behind due to categorization of business,availability of data etc.Therefore,under the background of heightened efforts of domestic commercial banks to develop non-interest business,comprehensive and in-depth analysis on causes of non-interest business,impact of non-interest business on banks'performance and potential risks brought about by non-interest business will play an important role to better understanding the essence of non-interest business and promoting non-interest business to serve the banking sector and the whole real economy.Therefore,this dissertation intends to solve major problems including:First,to analyze influencing factors of non-interest business.To research on the basis and main influencing factors of development of non-interest business and to further analyze differences of influencing factors among banks of various types,among various parts of non-interest income and between non-interest business before and after the international financial crisis.Second,to test the effect of non-interest business on banks' benefits.On the basis of constructing the indicator of banks' comprehensive performance,to undertake empirical tests on the effect of development of non-interest business on banks' benefits and explain major mechanism.To further analyze differences of impact on banks'benefits of various parts of non-interest income and various parts of fees and commissions.To analyze scale effect of non-interest business on banks' benefits,the existence of scale threshold and differences of impact on banks'benefits of banks of different scale.Third,to test the effect of non-interest business on banks' risks.From the dynamic perspective,to undertake empirical tests on the effect of development of non-interest business on banks' risks,further analyze differences of impact on banks' risks of various parts of non-interest income and explain major mechanism of differences.Fourth,to calculate optimal proportion of non-interest income for the banking sector.To undertake empirical tests on the effect of development of non-interest business on banks' stability,demonstrate inverted U-shaped relationship between non-interest business and banks' stability and calculate optimal proportion of non-interest income for the banking sector in China.This dissertation finds out that:First,factors which promote non-interest business of domestic commercial banks.mainly include banks' scale,net interest spread,capital discipline and proportion of direct financing,which shows that scale effect,traditional deposit and loan business derivation,capital discipline and financial disintermediation have promoted development of non-interest business.Factors which inhibit non-interest business mainly include banks' capacity of governance and integrated financial services,which shows that commercial banks have started to evaluate non-interest business from its risks and integrated financial services have not yet given full play to the role in promoting increase of non-interest income.Further study on different parts of non-interest income finds out that the role of banks' scale,net interest spread,and scientific and technological progress in promoting non-interest business is mainly embodied in fees and commissions while the role of capital discipline and direct financing is embodied in investment business.Large banks mainly derive non-interest business from traditional deposit and loan business while small and medium banks focus on development of investment business.After the financial crisis,domestic banks begin to evaluate the essence and risks of non-interest business more prudentially while more stringent capital adequacy requirement promotes development of non-interest business with low capital consumption.Second,non-interest business has not increased comprehensive performance of commercial banks due to regulatory environmental constraint,shock from the international financial crisis,high cost of prophase investment,cross subsidization strategy etc.Fees and commissions play the role of stabilizing and increasing banks'performance while dramatic fluctuation of investment business results in faltering banks' comprehensive performance.Among various parts of fees and commissions,income from custody,wealth management and bankcard,which is relatively independent and has closer links with the capital market,will increase comprehensive performance when its proportion of business income increase.When a bank has an asset scale over 817.895 billion yuan,non-interest business will be conducive to increasing comprehensive performance.Third,development of non-interest business increases banks' risks with the effect coming mainly from high fluctuation of non-interest income.High fluctuation of investment business is a major cause of high fluctuation of non-interest income and investment business of small and medium banks has most obvious impact on banks'risks.Moreover,optimal proportion of non-interest income of domestic commercial banks is 40.22%.Before the proportion of non-interest income reaches the optimal proportion,expansion of non-interest business could give play to diversification effect,which helps commercial banks to reduce risks of overall business.When the proportion of non-interest income is close to the optimal proportion,risks hidden in non-interest business will gradually emerge and diversification effect will tend to fade.At this stage,regulatory authorities should encourage commercial banks to optimize structure of their non-interest business,enhance risk management and control and vigorously develop business with high added-value and relatively stable profit contribution.Potential innovation and contribution to existing literatures of this dissertation lies in the following areas:First,scope of research samples has been significantly expanded.This dissertation has expanded scope of research to urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks and obtained a conclusion with wider application,compared with the fact that former literatures confined their researches to large state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks.Second,some progress has been achieved in method of research compared to former literatures.Since accumulation,contagion and outbreak of banks' risks may take a period of time,non-interest business tends to have a continuous impact on banks,risks.Therefore,this dissertation has studied the impact of non-interest business on banks' risks from the dynamic perspective.Compared with former researches which mainly used static panel fixed effect model/random effect model,this dissertation uses system GMM method and dynamic panel data to evaluate risks of non-interest business,which may solve the endogeneity problem from the explained variable and its lagged terms in the risk evaluation model and make the conclusion more convincing.Third,variables in the research have become more detailed.Firstly,to conduct detailed studies on influencing factors of non-interest business.To research on influencing factors of non-interest business among various parts of non-interest income,among banks of different scale and before and after the financial crisis.To analyze the differences of influencing factors and provide reasonable explanations.Secondly,to study banks' benefits from the perspective of comprehensive performance.This dissertation has used factor analysis principal component method to construct the indicator of banks' comprehensive performance and based on this studied the benefit effect of non-interest business,which overcomes the limitation of single indicator of profitability in former literatures and increases credibility of the conclusion.Moreover,to introduce the interaction term of non-interest income and banks' scale to analyze scale effect.As contrasted with the fact that former literatures focused on comparison of key variables among banks of various types,this dissertation has used banks' scale as the breakthrough point and studied not only direct effect of non-interest business on comprehensive performance but also indirect effect of non-interest business on comprehensive performance through banks' scale.Then this dissertation has calculated the scale threshold in comprehensive performance model.Fourth,to conduct research on optimal proportion of non-interest income for domestic commercial banks.Drawing on practices of development of non-interest business of overseas commercial banks,though various banks have different proportion of non-interest income due to different strategies,it is common that the growth of proportion of non-interest income has shifted from rapid to slow from the perspective of the global banking sector.This dissertation has attempted to study on the existence of optimal proportion of non-interest income by means of data of the banking sector in China and the relationship between non-interest business and banks'stability and calculated that the optimal proportion is 40.22%,which may provide important references to planning and management of development of non-interest business.Based on international comparison and domestic empirical researches,this dissertation makes relevant policy recommendations.First,to foster a good environment for development of non-interest business,including enhance banks'capacity of governance,increase the channels for banks to supplement capital,strengthen financial scientific and technological strength and promote pilots of integrated financial services.Second,to optimize structure of non-interest business and promote development of non-interest business such as custody,wealth management,credit card,which has high correlation with the capital market,strong motive to drive other business and relatively stable profit contribution.Third,to enhance risk prevention of non-interest business,including enhance classified risk management,strengthen the basis of risk management and intensify risk management of investment business. |
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