| In China,some rural financial problems have existed for a long time.Rural financial demand have not been met,rural financial resources mismatched,urban and rural income gap widened,illegal rural finance developed rapidly.In the context of the structural reform of supply-side,promoting the reform of rural financial reform of supply side,improving the supply capacity of quality and service efficiency in rural financial system,making the scale of rural financial supply abundant,making the varieties and services of rural financial supply fit the requirement of rural economic development and shaping an efficient and effect rural financial supply system with reasonable structure becomes a major problem that cannot be avoided.China's rural formal finance has played a key role in the development of rural economy.At the end of 2014,the rural loan balance of rural normal financial institutions is 19.4 trillion yuan,accounting for the proportion of the loan balance of 23.2%.The year-on-year growth is 12.4%,increasing by 98.27% compared with the end of 2010,the average growth rate is 14.67% within 5 years.It shows that rural normal financial supply system plays a crucial role in rural finance.However,in China,rural normal finance is still the vulnerability in the economic and financial system.Therefore,this article regards rural formal finance as the main object of research.Disequilibrium is the normal status of economic development,moderate disequilibrium of rural formal finance may promote economic growth,but excessive disequilibrium will hinder development of rural formal finance,expand urban-rural income gap and hinder development of rural economic.Domestic and foreign research on the supply disequilibrium of rural formal finance is incomprehensive,non-systematic,and is weak at stating the current development characteristics of China's rural economy and finance.Based on this judgment,taking the rural formal finance as the research object,this paper does some researches on the basis of summarizing the present situation and existing problems of the rural informal financial supply disequilibrium.This paper evaluates the problem of the scale shortage of rural formal financial supply disequilibrium from the perspective of rural formal financial supply,the gap of rural financial financing and the degree of rural credit rationing,and analyzes the influencing factors of rural credit rationing.This paper evaluates the supply structure monopoly and structural mismatch of rural formal financial supply disequilibrium from the perspective of organizational structure,market structure,product structure and investment structure of rural formal financial supply,and identifies the influencing factors of investment structure of rural formal financial supply.This paper studies the inefficiency of rural formal financial supply disequilibrium from the perspective of the capital allocating efficiency of rural formal finance and the institution efficiency of rural formal finance,and discerns the influencing factors of the conversion rate of rural formal finance's savings and investment.This paper calculates the degree of non-coordination about rural formal financial supply system from the view of the scale-structure-efficiency of the rural formal financial supply,and evaluates the disequilibrium characteristics of the rural formal financial supply as a whole,through which,it designs the program and supporting measures of balanced developing of rural formal finance and provides theoretical and empirical basis for the rural normal financial structural reform of supply side.This paper has five main conclusions:1.The scale of rural formal financial supply is not enough.The disequilibrium characteristics of rural formal financial supply are obvious.Although the supply scale of rural formal finance increased,the problem about disequilibrium of rural formal financial supply has not been fundamentally solved.(1)The supply of rural formal financial institutions is not enough,the blanks of rural formal financial institutions still need to be eliminated,and the balanced development of basic financial services remains to be solved.There is a shortage of employees in rural financial institutions and in rural area,the financial practitioners are only 16.52 people per 10 thousand persons,which is 60% of the national average.(2)Between 2010 and 2014,the gap of rural formal financial financing was 102770.57 billion yuan,87319.61 billion yuan,9142.282 billion yuan,8538.47 billion yuan and 7448.127 billion yuan,accounting for more than 1/3 of rural GDP.Although the size of the gap of rural formal finance is decreasing fast,but the disequilibrium characteristics of supply scale about rural formal finance are obvious.(3)Between 2010 and 2014,rural credit rationing degree was 58.88%,55.53%,55.33%,52.60% and 52.03% respectively.The rural financial credit rationing was serious while the overall trend was moderate.In the analysis of the influencing factors of rural credit rationing,it is found that the increase of the per capita disposable income in rural areas and the increase of the scale of postal savings bank' asset can reduce the degree of rural credit rationing.The increase of urbanization rate and the expansion of bank assets will increase rural credit rationing degree.2.The organization structure and market structure of rural formal financial supply is highly monopolized.The product structure of rural formal financial product is single and the term structure is unreasonable.The agricultural loan structure is deviated from the rural enterprise loan structure.The rural loan structure matches the rural industry institution in a low level.The disequilibrium of rural formal financial supply is significant.(1)The degree of monopoly of the rural formal financial supply organization is high.Assets of rural credit cooperative finance account for more than 67% of the assets of agriculture-related financial institutions.The branches of rural credit cooperative finance account for 70% of the branches of agriculture-related financial institutions.Rural credit cooperative finance has absolute dominance.HHI index decreases slowly,rural formal financial market are becoming diversification but the progress is relatively slow.(2)The rural formal financial supply market structure has transformed from the high oligopoly type?to the high oligopoly type II.In rural loans,large banks and rural credit cooperative financial system has formed a bipolar monopoly in the county and townships.At the same time,the monopoly of rural formal financial supply market structure decreases,which indicates that market competition is deepening and the market structure of rural formal financial supply is becoming diversification.(3)The rural formal financial product is single.Term structure of rural formal financial product mismatches.The "small,scattered,short-term" rural formal financial products supply is deviated from the "long-term,large,concentrated,large-scale" modern agricultural credit demand.(4)Between 2010 and 2014,the structural deviations of agricultural loans were 0.75,0.74,0.79,0.84 and 0.88 respectively.The structural deviations of rural enterprise loan were 2.59,2.10,2.04,1.81 and 1.84 respectively.The loan scales of agricultural and rural enterprise mismatch its economic contribution.The structure deviation of rural enterprise loan is shrinking and the structure deviation of agricultural loan is in the expansion.The similarity coefficients of rural loan structure and industrial structure were 0.9644,0.9729,0.9771,0.9811 and 0.9814 respectively.Rural loan structure and rural industrial structure are matching in the low level with insufficient supply of credit,in essence,it is still a disequilibrium situation.Proportion of agricultural industry?openness of rural financial market?total agricultural power?farmers' investment and other variables have a significant impact on the similarity of rural loan structure and industrial structure.3.The overall efficiency of rural formal financial supply is low and the efficiency of the institutions is quite different and generally lower than the national average.The low efficiency of rural formal financial supply shows that the disequilibrium of rural formal financial supply is serious.(1)Between 2010 and 2014,the allocating efficiency of rural formal financial credit was 0.354,0.603 in the eastern China and 0.357 in the western China,the overall efficiency of the rural formal financial supply was low.The estimated allocating efficiency of rural credit in central China was 0.065 and not significant.The allocating efficiency of rural credit differences between eastern,central and western China and the "collapse" is obvious in central China.(2)The financial efficiency of rural formal financial institutions is generally lower than the national average level,and the indicators of rural commercial banks are superior to rural credit cooperatives.(3)Between 2010 and 2014,the conversion rate of rural finance's savings and investment was 66.24%,65.27%,64.84%,65.01% and 65.53% respectively.The conversion rate was lower than the national average level and has a downward trend,Interregional disequilibrium characteristics are obvious.GDP rate has a positive effect on the conversion rate.However,the loan interest rate,urbanization rate and farmer's savings have a negative impact.4.The coordinated development coefficients of the scale-structure,the scale-efficiency,the structure-efficiency,the scale-structure-efficiency of rural formal financial supply are both low,basically in the middle or border on imbalance.The coordination of rural formal financial supply system are poor,China's rural formal financial supply system is in the disequilibrium development stage with an overall imbalance.(1)Between 2010 and 2014,the coordinated development coefficients of rural formal financial supply system were 0.45,0.39,0.39,0.45 and 0.46,which was in the stage of recession development.There was a significant regional difference in the coordination of rural formal financial supply system.(2)The number of branches of small rural formal financial institutions?loan interest rate and financial expenditures have a positive impact on the coordination of rural formal finance.The rural roads and branches of postal savings banks have a positive impact on the coordination of rural formal finance.Provinces in eastern China have a better coordination of rural formal finance compared with provinces in western China.5.Based on the principle of "increasing supply,optimizing structure and improving efficiency",it is necessary to build a commercial,policy-based,cooperative rural formal financial system.The new rural financial institutions have clear and complementary functions,clear property rights,strong supervision,reasonable competition,diversified and sustainable capacity.To ultimately break the urban and rural dual system and achieve the ultimate goal of financial integration,it is necessary to form the situation that commercial finance supports rural finance,rural finance supports the new urbanization,agricultural develops modernly.It is proposed to make up the weakness of rural formal financial supply in the middle stage of urbanization,to guide commercial finance to support rural financial development,to realize the infiltration of urban finance to rural finance,to break the boundary between urban and rural financial structure in the later stage of urbanization development and realize the two-stage evolution strategy of urban and rural finance integration.From the view of increasing the scale of supply,optimizing the supply structure and improving the efficiency of supply,some specific reform measures are put forward and relevant recommendations are given. |
PDF Full Text Request