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Assessment And Governance Of Social Risk In Mega Construction Projects Based On Computational Experiments

Posted on:2017-11-05Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:C JiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1319330515958334Subject:Civil engineering construction and management
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As the speeding up urbanization,the rapid growth of urban population,and with the rapid development of China's economy,there will be numerous increase in the construction of infrastructure and other projects.There must be lots of mega construction projects(MCPs)in those projects such as expressways,waste plants,nuclear power plants,water,chemical and energy,etc.Mega construction projects could lead to major social events because of their characteristics,such as sociality,complexity,large scale and uncertainty.The potential social risks in those events could be serious threats to the construction of MCPs and the local social stability.At present,many studyings have focused on the identification,assessment and governance of social risks in MCPs.However,there is a shortage in the systemic research of the social risks in MCPs.Therefore,in this paper,a systemic research of the formation mechanism,assessment and governance of social risks in MCPs was conducted from the perspective of stakeholders.And the method of computational experiment was applied based on multi-agent based(MAB)and system dynamics(SD).(1)Literature Reviews and Research Framework.Through literature reviews on the study of social risks in MCPs,shortcomings and trends of the current researches were summarized.The research goals,contents and methods were proposed and the research framework was deveploped in this part.(2)Definitions and Theories.Through literatures study,the definitions and characteristics of MCPs and social risk in MCPs were described.Theories of stakeholder and social network analysis(SNA)were elaborated.Then,the research methodology of social risk stakeholders in MCPs based on SNA were proposed.(3)Stakeholder Analysis of Social Risk in MCPs.The social risk factors and stakeholders of mega construction projects were identified in this part.A "stakeholders-social risk factors" two-mode network was designed based on the collected data of forty-three MCPs with social risks.According to this two-mode network,the key stakeholders were found,and the relationships between stakeholders and factors of social risk were analyzed.Then the two-mode network was trasfered to "stakeholders" one-mode network.Relations among the stakeholder and their roles were studied according to the one-mode network density and four types of structural holes' values.(4)Formation Mechanism of Social Risks in MCPs.In this part,the evolution processes of social risks in MCPs were studied,and public behavior status and scale were used to represent the social risk state.A multi-agent model of the public individual behavior decision was built which includes public behavior decision pathes and behavior status.Then,the simulation and computational expriment platforms of social risks' formation mechanism were built through sofeware AnyLogic 7(evaluation version).The social risk evolution of MCPs were anaylized under the different conditions of communication efficiency and relationship strength.(5)Assessment of Social Risks in MCPs.The key assessment factors of social risks in MCPs are social risk scenario,social factors and stakeholders' behavior.Theoretical descriptions of social risk asssessment were conducted in this part.The calculation models of public behavioral intention were built based on the binary Logit discrete choice model,and the models' parameters were solved through the questionnaire method.Then,the SD models of public behavioral intention were built based on system dynamics and the input variables were detemined.The simulation platform of social risk assessment was developed combined with the model of public individual behavior decision.The social risks in MCPs were assessed and the results were analized under the particular situations.(6)Governance of Social Risks in MCPs.The governance framework of social risks in MCPs was designed which include social risk pre-assessment,social risk assessment,social risk evaluation,social risk management and social risk communication.Key governance factors of social risks in MCPs were analized from the persperctive of stakeholders and input variables were determined.The computational expriment platform of social risk governance was developed combined with the model of public individual behavior decision and the simulation platform of social risk assessment.
Keywords/Search Tags:mega construction project, social risk, formation mechanism, social risk assessment, social risk governance, computational experiment, multi-agent model
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