Study On The Development Of Service Trade In China Based On TiSA Negotiations

With the upgrade of technology and globalization stepping forward,the status of trade in services is rising steadily.Service sector is turning into the pillar industry in many western developed countries.The competitiveness of trade in services has more and more important status in international completion and world economic development.Initiated by the United States and EU,TiSA(Trade in Services Agreement)negotiations is the most promising opportunity to improve and expand trade in services.In October 2013,China formally requested to join the negotiations of Trade in Services Agreement.Now China is the world‘s third largest exporter of service and the world‘s second largest importer.TiSA negotiations will bring a huge and far-reaching impact to China.As the pattern of world service trade has constantly evolved,correct judgment and grasp of the trends of TiSA negotiations,combined with policy adjustment depending on China‘s current situation,will be conductive to stably rapid economic growth,and have both theoretical and practical significance.Strengthening the research on the influencing channels of which service trade liberalization affects the competitiveness of trade in services,and measuring the economic impact of service trade liberalization on China are not only the important contents of further research in service economic theory,but also the inevitable demands of the times.This dissertation uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,overall analysis and structural analysis,partial equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis.The leading role of theory and empirical functional integration,through qualitative analysis and quantitative measurement of an objective analysis of the relevant issues,and strive to establish findings in a solid theoretical foundation and objective fact.This dissertation has several innovations:Firstly,the perspective of innovation.As a service negotiations to promote international trade liberalization,TiSA negotiations will profoundly affect the future development of international trade in services,but now the academic research literature on TiSA negotiations are not enough.The researches are mainly concentrated in the basic analysis,quantitative analysis is less.This dissertation combines modern service trade theory and modern econometric methods,researches services trade liberalization from the effects of different channels on China's service trade development,quantitative analysis of the impact caused TiSA negotiations.Secondly,TiSA negotiations is to promote international negotiations on trade in services liberalization,liberalization of trade in services from promoting competition,services liberalization,foreign direct investment three channels affect the competitiveness of trade in services,and domestic research in this area is relatively small.This dissertation chooses three industries(finance,transport,construction)uses cointegration and error correction model to analyze the dynamic and long-term impact of liberalization of trade in services.Thirdly,using a general equilibrium model-GTAP model to simulate the impact of China's participation TiSA negotiations is an innovation.For the first time,TiSA negotiations change as a separately shock.This dissertation analysis the impact TiSA negotiations on trade in services and the impact of China if China's accession TiSA negotiations.This dissertation is divided into seven chapters,and the content of each chapter is as follow:Chapter one is introduction.The first chapter confirms the research content,research approach and research method of this article.The conclusion of creativities and shortages of the research is also included in this chapter.In the second chapter the author firstly sorts out thr literatures about TiSA.Then,the author reviewed the theoretical and empirical literatures related to trade in services,to clarify the literature background of this research.Chapter three is the analysis of TiSA negotiations.This chapter firstly details the background,objectives and future prospects of Ti SA negotiations,then analyzes service trade developments of TiSA negotiators.Finally this chapter summarizes the bilateral service trade of China and TiSA negotiators.Chapter four is the study of service trade competitiveness from time dimension.This chapter does research for the evolution of China's trade service competitiveness,from the angles of service trade's overall trend and service trade's structure.By using the service trade competitiveness index,revealed comparative advantage index development and many other indicators of quantitative research services trade competitiveness evolution trend,service trade competitiveness through industry analysis,to explore the Chinese service trade competitiveness of their own development characteristics,as analysis research foundation TiSA negotiations affect China service Trade competitiveness.Chapter five chooses three industries(finance,transport,construction)uses cointegration and error correction model to analyze the dynamic and long-term impact of liberalization of trade in services.TiSA negotiations is to promote international negotiations on trade in services liberalization,liberalization of trade in services from promoting competition,services liberalization,foreign direct investment three channels affect the competitiveness of trade in services.Chapter six uses a general equilibrium model-GTAP model to simulate the impact of China's participation TiSA negotiations is an innovation.This chapter analyses the impact TiSA negotiations on trade in services and the impact of China if China's accession TiSA negotiations.Chapter seven summarizes the conclusion.Based on the above analysis,this dissertation gave some countermeasures and suggestions.China‘s policy and law systems of trade in services need to be completed and service sector structure needs to be upgraded.The openness of service market needs to be developed.Also the serviceThrough research,this paper gets the following conclusions:Firstly,the development of trade in services,recovery needs of developed countries after international financial crisis,and stagnation of the negotiations on trade in services under the framework of the World Trade Organization jointly created TiSA negotiations.TiSA negotiations aim at achieving a high standard of services trade liberalization,promote the establishment of new standards for international trade in services.TiSA parties collectively account for around 70 percent of global trade in services.China ?s main import partners and export destinations of trade in services are all TiSA members.Secondly,at this stage,the total amount of China's service trade continues to expand,with the ratio of trade in goods is relatively backward,the deficit continues to expand.Services exports still travel,transportation,and construction resources,labor-intensive service-based trade representative,import and trade in goods related to capital and technology-intensive and service-oriented.Through import level of service trade,exports,the difference between the international market share,service trade competitiveness index,revealed comparative advantage index calculation found that the competitiveness of the industry in line with China's service trade theory of comparative advantage,at the same time,transportation,etc.weakening of traditional service sectors of comparative advantage,computer and information services sectors show a comparative advantage,capital and technology-intensive service sector is still inferior.Thirdly,from the financial sector,the increasing trade openness and financial services to improve competition in the financial sector will be suppressed to enhance the competitiveness of financial service trade,while the level of foreign investment in the financial sector will promote enhancements directly improve the competitiveness of financial service trade.The degree of competition in the transport industry and transport services trade competitiveness was negatively correlated with the level of openness transportation services,transportation,foreign direct investment levels for transport services will have a role in promoting trade competitiveness.The degree of competition in the construction industry and the construction industry average foreign direct investment in the water on the building services trade competitiveness has a positive role in promoting.Different industries,the three channels of trade in services liberalization of trade in services competitive effects of different,but also led in overall terms,the level of competition services,service trade liberalization level of services FDI and Service Trade Competitiveness no long-term stable relationship.Liberalization of trade in services through three channels will affect the structure of trade in services.Fourthly,the GTAP model simulation results that,TiSA successful negotiation of its members will promote economic growth,improve social welfare,promote increased import and export volume;the greatest benefit which the United States,and the overall economic and social well-being of other countries in the world will fall.TiSA negotiation is successful,there are differences in different countries impact on the service sector: the United States is the only country of all services are enhanced competitiveness of the industry,the competitive advantages of the industry's major developed countries will be further enhanced.Competitiveness of developing members TiSA negotiations is a general decline in all sectors.Competitiveness of other countries in the world in various service industries are also generally weakened.Generally speaking,if China joins TiSA negotiations,the negotiations will have a successful trade creation effect,promoting China's economic development and social welfare increased;China's import and export in various service industries will grow rapidly,construction,public utilities and other China competitiveness of the industry has a comparative advantage continues to strengthen,finance,transportation and other industries with a comparative disadvantage competitiveness continue to weaken,China's service industry increased specialization.If China did not join the negotiations TiSA successful TiSA negotiations on China will mainly produce trade diversion effect,inhibiting the development of China's economy,leading to social welfare decline.Import and export of various service industries will decline,the trade balance continues to deteriorate,the industry continued to weaken competitiveness.TiSA after successful negotiations,if China joined TiSA negotiations,members of the service industry to negotiate import and export are promoting.China's increase in the trade balance will join France,Germany,Spain,public utilities and buildings to reduce the amount,while the trade balance improved for all members TiSA negotiations in other sectors are promoting.China's accession negotiations to TiSA members are generally favorable.