A Study On The Mechanism Of Return Of Investment Of Toll Road Public Private Partnership Projects

In recent years,China widely promotes the Public Private Partnership(PPP)mode in the fields of infrastructure construction,and the toll road PPP projects take precedence in the development of the PPP mode in the traffic and transportation infrastructure.The toll road PPP projects have a large amount of investment and long franchise period.Building the reasonable mechanism of return of investment that can ensure the benefits of both government and private sector is not only the important issue in practice,but also the key that can make the toll road PPP projects operate successfully.Therefore,this dissertation researches the mechanism of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects.First,this dissertation researches both the connotation and the formulation process of the mechanism of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects.Based on the practice experience of PPP mode and the characteristics of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects,this dissertation analyzes the key factors that the mechanism of return of investment needs to be improved.The connotation of the mechanism of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects,which consists of such parts as the identification,allocation and evaluation of the risks,the distribution method of return of investment,and the method of loss and profit sharing,is thus suggested.Moreover,the functions of each part and their interaction in the mechanism are analyzed.The formulation process of the mechanism of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects is then built.Second,this dissertation analyzes the identification,allocation and evaluation of the risks of the toll road PPP projects.This dissertation generalizes the main risks of PPP projects by reviewing literatures.Combined with the characteristics of the Chinese toll road PPP projects,this dissertation also puts forward the main risks of Chinese toll road PPP projects.What's more,the risk allocation scheme of Chinese toll road PPP projects is suggested according to the risk allocation methods of PPP projects that summarized by literature review method,the risk allocation principles of the PPP projects and the characteristics of Chinese toll road PPP projects.With respect to the risk evaluation of the toll road PPP projects,the intelligent risk evaluation model that combined with the fuzzy synthetic evaluation and neural network is come up with,and the validity of the model is testified.Third,the distribution method of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects is proposed.The distribution method of return of investment includes the distribution models of return of investment and the punishment mechanism that deals with the moral hazard of private sector.From the perspective of whether or not the government can make sure the preference of performance of private sector in PPP projects,the distribution models of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects are suggested based on game theory.Furthermore,the decision making analysis for the government to set the punishment mechanism that copes with the moral hazard of private sector is put forward,which can give the reference to the government to set up the punishment mechanism.Next,the loss and profit sharing method based on the risk and earning sharing principle is researched.The model of loss and profit sharing,which can deal with the risks in the toll road PPP projects,is proposed based on the loss and profit sharing principle.Then,the value of this model and its effects on the investment decision making of government and private sector are analyzed according to real option theory.Further,the two loss and profit sharing methods that deal with the risks of construction material price change and the CPI variation are respectively studied in terms of the model of loss and profit sharing of the toll road PPP projects.Finally,the numerical simulation analysis used to verify the application of the mechanism of return of investment of the toll road PPP projects is done.This simulation testifies the reasonability of the connotation of the mechanism and the application feasibility of its formulation process.