Research On Coal Price Fluctuation In China From Financial Perspective

Different with the world countries which take the oil and gas as the main energy, coal is the most important foundation energy of our country, it accounted for about 70% in the energy consumption of China. In contrast, domestic scholars from the perspective of financial have done a lot of research on oil price fluctuations, but there are few articles researched the relationship between financial factors and coal price volatility. Just based on the current research situation of domestic scholars, the paper from the point of view of financial variables studied the coal prices fluctuations in China.Paper selected China coal prices index(CCPI) national comprehensive index released by China coal industry association as the research object of coal prices. On the basis of the specific research object, this paper from the demand shock, supply shocks and substitution effect, the three aspects analyzed factors that influence the coal price fluctuation in our country.The analysis methods include qualitative and quantitative analysis. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the price of coal, the paper from the macro, meso and micro level choose 9 financial variables.Macro financial variables can reflect the whole development status of China's economy, including the money supply, credit scale and the Shanghai A shares. Meso financial variables refer to the industry sector stock quotes, and this paper according to the key coal consumption industry selected the chemical, steel, cement manufacturing and thermal power sector stock market as the representative of meso financial variables. Micro financial variables include interest rate and exchange rate, interest rate affect the cost of coal enterprises, the exchange rate is by influencing the international coal prices and impact on China's domestic coal prices.Based on the analysis of the conduction mechanism of financial variables affect the price of coal, the paper used the coordination equation and vetor error correction model from the point of view of static state and studied the effect of financial variables on the fluctuation of the coal price. The results are as follows, in the long run, money supply and credit scale of macro financial variables have a significantly positive influence on the price of coal and the Shanghai A-share has no impact on the price of coal; The steel plate stocks market of meso financial variables have a negative influence on the price of coal, Cement manufacturing and thermal power sector stocks have a positive impact on the price of coal, chemical industry sector stocks has no influence on the price of coal; The long-term interest rate and exchange rate of micro financial variables both have a significant negative impact on the price of coal. In the short term, the current fluctuations of coal price are influenced by the credit scale, thermal power plate stock market, interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations and the direction is negative effect.Based on the analysis of the conduction mechanism of financial variables affect the price of coal, the paper used the state space model from the point of view of dynamic state to study the change relation of financial variables and coal price on the different time point. The model processing result are as follows. At the macro level, the time varying coefficient of money supply M0 to the coal price has both negative and positive values, but from the point of the mean value, the money supply and price of coal is in the same direction change relation; The influence coefficient of credit scale on coal price is positive, and the time-varying coefficient is not very different; The influence coefficient of Shanghai A shares on the coal price is in a positive and negative alternate changes form, the average degree of impact is negative. At the meso level, the impact on the price of coal chemical plate and thermal power plate has both positive and negative value, steel plate and the cement manufacturing sector's influence on coal prices in the range of samples presented obvious positive influence. At the micro level, the influence coefficient of medium and long term interest rates on the price of coal isalways positive value, the impact of the U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate on coal prices is always negative.Based on the analysis of the conduction mechanism of financial variables affect the price of coal, the paper used DCC-GARCH model from the point of view of dynamic state to study the relation between financial variables-- order difference sequence and coal price-- order difference sequence. The results of the study are as follows. At the macro level, there is a strong correlation between money supply, Shanghai A shares and the price of coal, while the correlation between credit scale and coal prices is weak. At the meso level, there is a strong correlation between steel, cement manufacturing, thermal power sector and the price of coal, and the correlation between chemical industry sector and coal prices is relatively strong. At the micro level, between the interest rate and the price of coal, there was a strong correlation between them, as well as there was a relatively strong correlation between exchange rate and the coal price.On the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper from the macro, meso and micro three aspects and combined with the financial perspective, put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the coal consumption and stable the coal prices.