| Since Jamaica Agreement,the process of demonetization of gold was weakening the precious metal's international status.However,after entering the 21st century,With the rasing change of global political and economic structure,in all kinds of the function of the gold derivative market are continuously being developed and used.In the meantime,gold market and financial markets continue to deepen the relationship in countries,and driven by the continuous innovation of the financial tools,global gold markets present full of vigor and vitality time after time.Under the influence of the global financialization,China gold market began to reform from 2002 and has made considerable progress.Till to April 2016,China had built a diversified and multi-gold financial markets,and became one of the most important member of the global gold markets,the relevant phenomena are explored and analyzed by many academics.This paper reviews the basic properties of gold and defines the concept of the financialization of gold,selecting economic indicators which can reflect the financial attributes of gold,building the index of financialization of gold,and has carried on the thorough research and the use of the index.In this paper,we found the relationship between financialization of gold and some of other economic indicators in China We forecasted the basic trend of financialization of gold in China,and put forward the policy recommendations to promote the development of China financial deepening in gold market.Therefore,the research content of this paper has important theoretical and practical significance to the development of gold market in China.First of all,the thesis analyzed the historical review of the financialization of gold,and sums up the international experience and the present situation of China about the financialization of gold.To build the index of financialization of gold in China,we must understand the basic attributes of gold,the characteristics of the historical development,the development experience of international gold market and the current status of the development of China's gold market.Through combined the gold in the development of four different historical periods,exploring the characteristics of the financialization of gold in different periods;Analyzed and summarized the experience of the development of the five largest international gold market in the world;Discussed the development of the four stages of China's gold market.Secondly,this paper constructed the index of financialization of gold in China.On the definition of the concept of the financialization of gold and the basis of scientific selection and pretreatment of data,through the use of a reflection of the"reserves and payment of property of gold" and "investment property of gold",totally 2496 data-related indicators,we did the construction the reserve and pay for the property index of gold,investment property index of gold and the index of financialization of gold.Then we completed the weight calculation and the results analysis of the three index.The index of financialization of gold is obtained from the calculation of the weight of a summary of the previous two index,reserves and payment of property of gold and investment property of gold were calculated by the weight of a summary of their own three sectors.We carried out the empirical and theoretical analysis of the characteristics of these three index.In third,this article has carried on the analysis of the time evolution of the index of financialization of gold in China.On the basis of the preliminary statistical analysis of the index,we did a systematic analysis of the basic characteristics of the index,respectively carried out its stability analysis,trend analysis and phase analysis.In a stationarity test,it is found that the index series are not stationary time series,so the ARIMA model is introduced.In the analysis of trends,we used Hodrick-Prescott filter(H-P filter method)to analyze the characteristics of the trend of the index itself.In the phase analysis,this paper uses the orderly cluster analysis to systematically analyze and explain the stage characteristics of China's gold financial index.Fourthly,correlation analysis on the index of financialization of gold in China.This paper holds that commodity price index,the actual dollar index,the index of price of new homes in 70 large and medium cities,the Shanghai Composite Index are related to the index of financialization of gold in China.On the basis of the stationarity test of the four economic indexes,separately we did rolling correlation and static correlation analysis,grey relational grade model analysis,dynamic correlation analysis based on DCC-EGARCH model,so as to know the relevance between the above four economic indicators and the index of financialization of gold in China from January 2008 to middle of December 2015,The fifth step,this paper forecast the trend of the index of financialization of gold in China.In this paper,we used three kinds of forecasting methods.Using grey forecast method to forecast the trend of the index from January to June in 2016;Then we used BP neural network method to forecast the trend of the index from January to March in 2016;Finally,through the ARIMA model forecasting method to forecast the trend of the index in 4 quarter in 2016 t,so that we can explores the real development trend of the financialization of gold in China.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on the financialization of gold in China.By teasing out the main problems of the financialization of gold in China,this paper found that,the overall level of China's gold reserves is not sufficient.the investment and financing channels of gold is imperfect,the gold market supervision system is not perfect,the gold market is lack of innovation ability the level of internationalization of the gold market is too low and so on.This paper suggests Chinese government to increase its gold reserves,to expand the investment and financing channels of gold,to promote the internationalization of the financial markets of gold,to increased tax support,to improve the regulatory system and guard against financial risks,so as to effectively guarantee the financialization of gold in China healthy and persistently. |
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