The Correlation And Influence Factors Of Chinese House Price And Stock Market

In recent years,China's real estate prices continue to rise and the stock market fluctuates violently,which not only attracts close attention from scholars and investors,but also attracts high attention from the Chinese government.Chinese government has launched a series of policies to regulate the situation,such as,putting restrictions on residential house buying,decreasing the housing demand while housing price was too high.For the sharp fluctuations in the stock market,the government has issued a series of laws and regulations to restrict short-term speculation and encourage long line investment to defuse the risks caused by excessive speculation in the stock market and protect the interests of investors.However,the effectiveness of various measures is not significant,especially those real estate price regulation which are far from the expected effect;the real estate price is still at a high level.As the two asset markets with huge volume,real estate market and the stock market have become a subject worth studying in the economic.At present,there are many researches about the relationship between the real estate price and the stock market in China,but the conclusions are quite different.Some scholars believed that there is a positive correlation between the real estate price and the stock market.Some scholars pointed out that there is a negative correlation between the real estate price and the stock market,and some scholars revealled that there is no correlation between the real estate price and the stock market.The inconsistent conclusionindicates that the inherent principle of the real relationship between the real estate price and the stock market is not revealed at this stage.Therefore,based on the previous researches,this paper discusses the relationship between the real estate price and the stock market,and further discusses the influencing factors and the impact path.First,this paper analyzes the situation of the real estate market and the stock market in China.Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between the real estate price and the stock market,the average sales price and the Shanghai composite index are taken as the proxy for changes of the real estate price and the stock market respectively,and the monthly data of 2000-2016 years are selected.Co-integration test,VAR model,Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are used to carry out an empirical study on the relationship between real estate price and stock market in China.The results show that there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between real estate prices and stock market in China.There exists negative correlation and stock market,and the latter is the Granger reason of the former one.The dynamic observation of its correlation can find that during the 1-4 lag period,the stock market has a positive impact on the real estate price,and the 5-8 period will have a negative impact on the real estate price.Secondly,based on the qualitative analysis of the relationship between the real estate price and the stock market,the GARCH model,the spectrum analysis and the state space model are used to analyze the monetary policy,the money supply,the interest rate and the rate of remittance to China's real estate price and the stock market.The impact of the relationship and the ways of its influence show that monetary policy,money supply,interest rate and exchange rate can all lead China's real estate price and the stock market having negative correlation through the internal transmission mechanism.Finally,based on the administrative policy regulation,the financial economic cycle and the change of the exchange rate,this paper analyzes the future development trend of the relationship between real estate prices and the stock market,and puts forward the coordination mechanism of establishing monetary policy and exchange rate policy,the establishment of a long-term mechanism of real estate market,and the establishment of real estate,building market trust and investment funds,strengthening the construction of the stock market,perfecting the laws and regulations,widening the investment channels,speeding up the construction of innovative assets and assets market,building the buffer zone of the impact of currency liquidity,and strengthening the monitoring and management of the real estate market and the stock market bubble.