| Economic fluctuation is an important part of macroeconomics research.Preventing the drastic fluctuation of economy and maintaining steady and fast economic growth is an important goal of economic management.However,due to the complexity of economic operation and the diversification of economic elements,and there are many factors that affect economic fluctuations,the academic circles have deeply analyzed the factors that cause economic fluctuations,such as the changes of industrial structure,investment changes,government expenditure adjustments,expected adjustments,and changes in financial elements have become widely accepted important factors that trigger economic fluctuations.Among them,as an important force affecting economic development,finance has an important impact on the production of economic fluctuations,becoming an key of studying economic fluctuations.From the literature that can be traced back,the academic circles study the mechanism and realization path of the relationship between financial and economic fluctuation mostly depend on the view of finance as the supply element,then study the relationship between financial factors changes and economic fluctuation.This angle of view mainly reflects the influence of finance on economy,but weakens the study the reaction of economy to finance.There are also some scholars study the relationship between the change of financial elements and economic fluctuations from the perspective of financial structure and financial asset structure,that is,the adjustment of financial structure related to the changes of economic variables,and then related the performance of economic fluctuations.But this kind of literature is relatively rare.However,from the the interrelationship between finance and economy and its cohesive mechanism,the structure of financial assets is a good index to study the relationship between finance and economic fluctuation.The adjustment of financial assets is an indicator of the relationship between financial and economic fluctuation.Because the financial assets are the basic components of finance and the changes of their structure reflect the changes of financial resources and the change of the direction of circulation,which leads to the change of economic factors,and then the economic fluctuation,which is an important variable in observing and analyzing economic fluctuation.However,the existing research on the impact of finance on economic fluctuation from the perspective of financial structure and even the structure of financial assets is based on the existing division of financial assets.The characteristics of this division are based on the existing forms of financial assets,that is,the statistical analysis of financial assets from the perspective of the owners of existing financial assets.The financial structure or the structure of financial assets is also structured by financial assets based on this division.This division of financial assets,althoughit is convenient to study changes in various types of financial assets,and to observe the direction of the development of finance and economy,but neglected who issue the financial sector.Because financial assets are the equilibrium between the funds supply and the capital demand.While the economy as a whole can be divided into the real economy and the fictitious economy.Whatever kind of financial asset,according to its issuer,it is either from the real economy or from the fictitious economy.The amount of financing instruments issued by the real economy and the fictitious economy reflects how much money the two major economies receive from society,and also indicates the development trend of the two economies.As far as the two major economies,the more financing instruments issued by the two major economies are converted into financial assets,the more market capital will be held,the more priority will be given to development,and the greater attention of market capital will be drawn.For example,if the real economy issued more financing instrument means more social capital will be available.This help real economy to possess better social resources to meet their development needs,to increase the efficiency of production and the ability to create wealth,and to create a scene of prosperity for the real economy.Same as real economy,if the fictitious economy which obtain more social funds will also create a scene of prosperity for the fictitious economy,and lead more fund into fictitious economy.The amount of financial assets issued by the two major economies will affect the economy stability.For example,if the fictitious economy is too prosperous,it will absorb more funds from the market.It is bound to have a "crowding out effect" on real economic investment.When the "crowding out effect" is greater than the "crowding in effect",it will affect the development of the real economy and cause economic fluctuations,even leading to a financial crisis.Can economic fluctuations be explained by financial assets issuing structure which issued by the economy? This paper is based on this consideration.However,the existing research on the impact of finance on economic fluctuation is mostly from the financial structure and even the structure of financial assets based on the existing division of financial assets.This characteristic division is drove by the current form of financial assets,that is to divide the financial assets from the view of the owners who own the financial assets,and adding the similar financial assets into statistics.The financial structure or financial asset structure discussed is also formed by the financial assets based on this division.From the view of the owners of financial assets,there are many kinds of financial assets.It is questionable whether the structural relationship between different financial assets can completely cover all the characteristics of economic fluctuations.But from the issuer's view,it is much simpler.Because the economy is made up of the real economy and the fictitious economy,no matter what kind of financial asset,according to its issuer,it is either from the real economy or from the fictitiouseconomy,so the structure of the two types of financial assets,Contains the amount of all the original financial assets.At the same time,the real economy and the fictitious economy also include all the economic elements,reflecting the attributes of the economic subject.The amount of financing tools issued by the real economy and fictitious economy translated into financial assets reflect the amount of funds obtained from the society in the two major economies,and also indicates the development trend of the two economies.For the two major economies,the more financing instruments they issued and translated into financial assets,the more capital they will gain,the more priority they will have,and the more attention from the capital they will have.For example,for the real economy,obtaining more social funds will help them to possess more high-quality social resources to meet their development needs,so as to improve the efficiency of production and the ability to create wealth,and form a scene of real economic prosperity.For the fictitious economy,the gain of more social funds will boost the income of the fictitious economy and financial assets,guide more profit-driven funds drive into,and form the scene of the fictitious economic prosperity.The amount of financing instruments issued by the two major economies translated into financial assets not only affects the development of the economy itself,but also affects the stability of the economy.If the fictitious economy is excessively prosperous and too much capital is absorbed from the market,it will inevitably produce a "crowding out effect" on real economic investment.When the "crowding out effect" is greater than the "crowding in effect",it will affect the development of the real economy and cause economic fluctuations.It even led to a financial crisis.So can we explain the economic fluctuation through the amount of the financial instruments issued by the economy and the structural relationship between the two,and take the structure of the financial assets formed by the two as a window to observe the economic fluctuations? This paper is based on this consideration.On the basis of absorbing the existing research results,according to the difference between the financial assets issued from the real economy and the fictitious economy,this paper defines the financial assets issued by the real economy as the real economy financial assets and the financial assets issued by fictitious economy as fictitious economy financial assets.Defined the relationship between the two kinds of financial assets as the financial assets issuing structure.In this way,the relationship between the real economy and the fictitious economy is corresponding to the existing financial assets which can be separated from the statistics,and the degree of coordination between the real economy and the fictitious economy is reflected from the financial assets,and then the fluctuation of the economy is reflected.To analyze the economic fluctuation from this perspective,on the one hand,it fully demonstrates the function of the elements of finance and the function of serving the social economy;on the other hand,through the link of financial assets,the economicfluctuation is linked with the real economy and the fictitious economy.It will also link finance with the economy,realizing the internal biochemistry of the factors that affect economic fluctuations.Third,it will study and analyze economic fluctuations from the perspective of the structure of financial asset issuance,and discuss the relationship between the structure of financial assets and economic fluctuations.It expands the perspective of financial asset structure and economic fluctuation.This paper firstly summarized and studied the classical theory.On the basis of summarizing Marx's theory of labor value and wealth,Marx's theory of fictitious capital,theory of financial structure and unified law of structure and function,the paper further analyzed the relationship between entity economy and fictitious economy.Then discusses the basis of the division of financial assets,the specific categories,and the contents of the research on financial assets and the structure of financial assets in the present research,and puts forward that the structure of financial assets is a influencing factor of economic fluctuation and by which to study the relationship between finance and economy.On this basis,based on the criteria of entity economy and fictitious economy,we define the real economic financial assets,fictitious economic financial assets and financial assets issuing structure,theoretically analyze the connotation of the real economic financial assets and fictitious economic financial assets,and put forward that the financial assets issuing structure can accurately reflect the economic and financial engagement and economic fluctuation,and can be used as an effective window for observing and studying economic fluctuation.Secondly,the paper separated the real economic financial assets and the fictitious economic financial assets from the existing statistical framework.Based on the theory of dividing the real economy and the fictitious economy,according to the difference between the inflow of funds into the real economy and the fictitious economy,separated the real economic financial assets and the fictitious economic financial assets from the existing statistical framework.Classifying loans,primary market stocks,primary market bonds into real economic financial assets.Secondary market stocks,bonds,and equity funds and financial derivatives,real estate transactions for arbitrage are classified as fictitious economic financial assets.Based on the statistical data of1993-2016 in China,we calculated the amount of real economic financial assets and fictitious financial assets of each year and measured the structure of financial assets in China,and analyzed the characteristics of real economic financial assets,fictitious economic financial assets,and the financial asset issuance structure.Thirdly,theoretical analysis the relationship between the two types of financial assets and economic fluctuations,the structure of financial assets issuing and economic fluctuations.First,analyzing the value multiplication process of the real economic financial assets and the fictitious economic financial assets,clarified the relationship between the real economic financial assets and the fictitious economic financial assets,and the relationship between the real economic financial assets,fictitious economic financial assets,the issuing structure of financial assets and economic fluctuation.fictitious economic financial assets,financial asset issuance structure and economic fluctuations.It is pointed out that the real economic financial assets are negatively correlated with the economic fluctuations,the fictitious economic financial assets are positively correlated with the economic fluctuations,and the issuing structure of financial assets is negatively correlated with the economic fluctuations.Second,the paper deduces the steady-state relationship between the real economic financial assets rate,the fictitious economic financial assets rate and the economic growth rate,and proposes that when the three are equal the finance and economy stay in steady-state.Under the framework of this analysis,the negative correlation between the issuing structure of financial assets and economic fluctuation is studied and concluded again.Fourthly,using the data from 1993 to 2016 in China to statistically analyze and empirical test the relationship between financial asset issuance structure and economic fluctuation.The statistical analysis shows that the financial asset issuance structure has a negative correlation with economic fluctuation.The relationship between real economy financial assets and fictitious economy financial assets and economic fluctuation is also explored.The VAR model of financial asset issuance structure and economic fluctuation shows that under the critical value of 1% the financial asset issuance structure is the economic fluctuation's Granger cause;from the pulse response,when give a positive impact on the financial asset issuance structure the economy fluctuation come down,that is,the rise of financial asset issuance structure leads to the decrease of economic fluctuation,and the variance decomposition further analyzes the influence of the change of financial asset issuance structure on economic fluctuation.The change of issuing structure of financial assets finally explains 46% of the economic fluctuation and it is an important indicator to explain the economic fluctuation.The empirical test verifies the conclusion of theoretical deduction.But at the same time,the real economic financial assets and the fictitious economic financial assets can not explain the economic fluctuation independently,they do not constitute the Granger reason of the economic fluctuation,and their explanations to the economic fluctuation are limited.The main contributions of this paper are as follows.First,it has opened up the space for the financial assets division,combining financial assets with the real economy and the fictitious economy,and according to the different issuers divided the financial assets into real economic financial assets and fictitious economic financial assets,which opens up the research space offinancial assets.Second,relating the structure of financial assets and economic fluctuations and explain economic fluctuations from the financial asset issuance structure which structure a new index and a new view to observe the economic fluctuation.Thirdly,analyzing the relationship between the structure of financial asset issuance and economic fluctuation theoretically,and reinforcing the theory of the relationship between the structure of issuance of financial assets and economic fluctuation.The fourth is to take the structure of financial assets issuance as the intermediate channel of expected adjustment to the economic fluctuations,and to improve the interpretation path of expected shocks to economic fluctuations. |
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