The Volatilities And Transmission Characteristics In Container Liner Freight Market

With the global economic and trade exchanges increasing,international liner shipping plays an increasingly important role,and its development speed is far faster than other shipping modes.The fluctuation of liner shipping market has also attracted the attention of domestic and foreign scholars.Because of various uncertain factors,such as global economy,politics,public health events,financial crises,technology,etc,container freight rate market fluctuates severely,which brings great risks to the operation and investment of shipping enterprises,shippers and forwarders,as well as the healthy development of China's economy and trade.How to deeply explore the volatilities and transmission Characteristics in container freight rate market from different dimensions,to provide participants with more comprehensive and effective market information for their decision-making,is a key concern in the field of maritime economy.Therefore,based on the analysis of the complex volatility in different forms of container freight rate markets,this paper studies their fluctuation transmission characteristics by introducing complex network theory.They are autocorrelation fluctuation transmission of container spot market in the time dimension,correlation fluctuation transmission among sub-route markets in the spatial dimension,and co-movement transmission between futures market and spot market in the financial attribute dimension.It reveals the internal fluctuation transmission law of liner shipping markets.Some suggestions are proposed for shipping administration together with the shipping enterprises.The work mainly is as follows:(1)The volatility law of container freight rate market under different time-scales is studied.Based on the VMD method,this paper constructs models to analyze the fluctuation characteristics and forecast the trend in container freight rate market.Taking the shanghai export container market as the research objects,this paper analyzes the complex fluctuation characteristics of liner shipping markets in different forms,such as the spot market,the sub-line market and the futures market.This study discusses the time-scale characteristics of the markets,and expresses its economic connotation reasonably.It is a foundation for the study of fluctuation transmission The results show that different forms of container freight rates series are non-linear,non-stationary and multi-time scales,and their long-term trends,periodicity,seasonality and irregular fluctuations in different time scales are slightly different,which means they are complex systems.(2)This paper constructs an autocorrelation fluctuation transmission network model of container freight rates index,by introducing the symbolic dynamics method and the complex network theory.Taking SCFI as the empirical research object,the transmission dynamics of its autocorrelation volatility network are discussed through the analysis of its topological structure,such as core modes,transmission patterns,clustering,betweenness centrality and transmission distance,which reveals the overall volatility law of the spot market from a micro perspective.It is found that SCFI autocorrelation fluctuations have persistence,periodicity and clustering.The transmission mode has a regular pattern.They are dominated by positive correlation fluctuations.Some modes always indicate the change of fluctuation state,which help to predict the direction of fluctuations and provide risk warning information.(3)This study constructs the Granger causality network model of freight rate fluctuations among container sub-route markets by introducing Granger Causality test and complex network theory.Taking SCFI sub-route markets as the empirical research objects,this paper studies their dynamic characteristics of fluctuation transmission,such as transmission range,transmission distance,transmission betweenness,clustering and transmission path,from a systematic prospective,which make us understand the container freight rate market better from the spatial structure dimension.Studies show that the influence range and the affected range are different for different SCFI routes' fluctuation.The transmission speed of fluctuations among the sub-route markets is very fast.Betweenness centrality and clustering of different routes are different.13 sub-routes markets can be divided into 4 communities.These provide key monitoring sub-routes market for market participants to grasp its transmission path and make operational decisions.(4)Through the definition,symbolization and coarse graining of the co-movement relationship between container futures and spot markets,this paper constructs a fluctuation network model of it.Taking SCFI's Europe and West America routes markets as the empirical research objects,this paper studies the dynamic transmission process of the co-movement relationship through analyzing the network's topological structure.So we understand the liner shipping market better from the perspective of financial attributes.The paper studies the key modes,clustering,transmission cycle,betweenness centrality and groups in the process.Market participants can reasonably pricing,adjust investment strategy and avoid risks accordingly.