| The fluctuation of the real estate market has become an important factor affecting the macroeconomic stability.Looking at the history of 44 regional and global financial crises in more than 380 years,22 outbreaks of these crises have been associated with drastic fluctuations in the real estate market.In particular,the fluctuation in the US real estate market in 2008 led to huge defaults on subprime mortgages,which was an index of fires to make a global financial crisis.By 2018,most countries are still deeply trapped in the post-crisis recession,therefore we can see the extent and depth of the impact of this crisis.It also highlights the importance of studying the cause,mechanism and impact of the real estate market fluctuations.China's real estate industry occupies a decisive position in the development of the national economy.The real estate industry has entered a period of rapid development since 2000,and has gradually become a pillar industry in our economy.The real estate market is rapidly expanding,and the scale of investment,construction,and transactions as well as its price have continued to climb.Under the situation that China's real estate market is developing well,however,the crisis is hidden,which is manifested as the fluctuation frequency of the real estate market rises,the fluctuation range expands,the fluctuation time extends,and the number of adverse even malignant fluctuations increases.The adverse fluctuations have become major issues that hinder the further development of the real estate market.The real estate market is a specialized trading market.Real estate not only has the attributes of production and living,but also consumption and investment.It not only needs financial resources to provide sufficient funds,but also requires legal protection of all types of related rights.This leads to the complexity of the process of real estate transactions and a lot of specialized details invloved,which makes the real estate market to be a specialized market.However,the relevant specialized institutions in China's real estate market have developed very slowly with a low level of regulation.There are a large number of trading groups lacking expertise and market awareness.This group has many people with a low degree of rationality,and is vulnerable to various types of information in the market.In particular,when a lot of distorted and false information swarm into the market,there are a large number of concentrated transactions in the short term,causing severe market fluctuations.This group is not only the promoters of adverse fluctuations in the real estate market,but also the victims of losses caused by volatility,the vulnerable trading group in the China's real estate market.We believe that the market noise is an important reason for leading ordinary traders to conduct collective irrational transactions.The information in the real estate market is often broken,fragmented,distorted or even false.Obtaining real information requires further screening and interpretation.The time cost,search cost,and knowledge cost generated by these processes form a barrier.In the real estate market,only a few institutions and special traders can afford the cost and obtain more real trading information.Whereas most of the ordinary market traders are isolated from the threshold and can only trade with noise information.The belief in choosing a combination of noise information comes from the degree to which a common trader accepts certain noise information when faced with a variety of noise information.When there is a powerful noise emitter in the real estate market to control the information market,the ordinary market traders will easily become the appendages of noise.It has a higher possibility to form a concentrated transaction,which specifically performs as transaction size and price suddenly enlarge or concentrate at a certain period.Noise affects the trading behavior of the micro-transaction subjects in the course of information acquisition,output,feedback and spillover,and causes their transaction behaviors to be biased.The deviation of behaviors further leads to fluctuations in the real estate market through price,supply scale,timing of supply,consumer preferences,transaction expectation,and the size and structure of credit allocation.The intensity of noise in China's real estate market has continued to increase.Along with the increase in noise intensity,the real estate market has seen rising speculation,increased liquidity,weakening relations with economic fundamentals,and increased market instability.The causes of noise gain are obvious.On the one hand,the ability to disseminate information has been significantly enhanced,including the rapid development of new media,the increased efficiency of information terminals,and the changing habits of micro-subject to obtain information.On the other hand,the degree of market instability has increased,including the trend of virtual capitalization deepening,instable anticipation,and frequent short-term policies.The noise gain influences the real estate market from asset pricing,credit allocation,trading experience and conformity of policies,and causes an increase in market volatility.Market noise causes fluctuations in real estate investment and consumption,thus affects the level of total capital formation and total consumption,and ultimately has an impact on economic growth.Real estate market fluctuation affects the total consumption through the substitution effect,wealth effect,precautionary savings,and liquidity constraints.At the same time,it influnces total investment by cost effect,wealth effect,and crowding-out effect.The empirical result shows that real estate investment and consumption have a significant effect on economic growth by affecting total investment and total consumption.The real estate investment has a short-term influence in promoting economic growth,while real estate consumption has the continual impact.The investment and consumption in real estate market will substitute those in other industries,thus affecting the structure of economic growth.In order to stabilize China's real estate market and figure out the negative impact of noise on the market,we think our government and society should take the following three actions.First,establish a system for hedging the noise in the real estate market.Government agencies at all levels should establish and improve the information disclosure system and evaluation mechanism of the real estate market.Secondly,build a mechanism to actively resist the noise of the real estate market,improve the trader's rationality,optimize the main body of transaction structure,and rectify and standardize the information order.Third,build a long-term mechanism to stabilize the real estate market expectations,which means regulation and control policies should be continuous and stable,avoiding short-term behavior.Establish a differentiated regulation and control policy system,and improve the supply system. |
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