| Energy consumption,especially the combustion of fossil fuel,is the main source of atmospheric pollutants(including chemical substances and anthropogenic heat)emissions.Over the past few decades,China's and global energy consumption have undergone significant changes in the aspect of amount,structure,using pattern,and spatial distribution,and will continue to vary in the near future.In the meantime,the emission pattern of atmospheric pollutants has changed correspondingly.Therefore,exploring the spatio-temporal distribution and evolutionary trends of atmospheric pollutants from energy consumption in China and the world in the past and predicting their variations in the future would help us to clearly identify the main air pollution sources and better understand the evolution of environment-related issues.Also,it has significantly theoretical and practical implications for making energy policies and developing air pollution control measures.This study focused on anthropogenic heat and atmospheric chemical pollutant emission issues during energy use process and conducted the following researches.(1)Based on“energy inventory”method,China's and global anthropogenic heat emission(AHE)inventories at two different periods(1953-2016 and 1965-2016)were respectively constructed.Evolutionary characteristics of AHEs at different scales and the impacts of regions,sectors,energy structure,and utilization pattern on the emissions were further discussed.(2)According to the global-scale energy consumption predictions from IPCC and other organizations,the evolution of global AHE at high spatial resolution between 2017 and 2100 was predicted.(3)Based on the current state of China's energy consumption and future plans and policies for socio-economic development and environmental protection,the high-resolution emission inventories of atmospheric chemical pollutants(including SO2,NOx,CO,PM1O,PM2.5,BC,OC,and NH3)in 2015,2020,and 2030 were constructed by using“emission factor”method.The regional differences,industrial sources and spatio-temporal evo lution of different atmospheric chemical pollutants were investigated,and the focus and direction of future emission control were explored.In addition,the uncertainty was characterized by using the Monte-Carlo simulation.The main results of this study are as follows:(1)In the past decades,China's and global energy consumption have undergone significant changes in terms of total amount,structure,and spatial distribution,and will continue to change in the future.From 1953 to 2016,China's primary energy consumption increased from 1.6 EJ/yr to 127.9 EJ/yr.Coal was always dominated,while its contribution gradually reduced from 94.3%in 1953 to 61.8%in 2016.Industry was found to be the largest energy consumer,which stably remained at around 70%of total energy consumption.Geographically,the growth of total energy consumption in southern China was much faster than that in other regions before 2010,however,after 2010,northwest China showed a strong growth.In the near future of 2030,China's total energy consumption will continue to grow.The growth in thermal power and transportation sectors will be more prominent than in other sectors.And,the residential sector will have a slight increase while the industrial sector presents a downward trend.From 1965 to 2016,global primary energy consumption increased from 156.2 EJ/yr to 555.9 EJ/yr,and fossil energy has been identified as the most important energy type.The share of oil and coal in total consumption continues to decline.A rapid growth of energy consumption in the Middle East,Asia Pacific,Africa,and South&Central America was occurred and in comparison,the growth in North America,Europe,and Eurasia was slower.By 2100,under the high,moderate,and low scenarios,the global primary energy consumption is expected to reach 1700,1430,and 1070 EJ/yr,respectively,and the growth in consumption will mainly occur in non-OECD countries.(2)Over the past few decades,AHE in China undergone a continued growth and this trend will maintain in the future.Moreover,obvious differences in the stages and diversities of spatio-temporal distribution could be observed.From 1953 to 2016,China's AHE from energy consumption increased from 1.6 to 127.9 EJ/yr,with the averaged heat flux increasing from 0.01 to 0.42 W/m2.In 2015,the total emission from the industrial;transportation,and building sectors was estimated to be 107.9 EJ/yr,of which the industrial sector is the primary contributor,followed by the building and transportation sectors.The highest emission regions were Shandong,Guangdong,and Jiangsu;however,the highest heat emission flux occurred in Shanghai(16.8 W/m2),Tianjin(5.7 W/m2),and Beijing(4.7 W/m2).The heat flux in the eastern regions was mostly between 0.5 and 20 W/m,which was significantly higher than that in the western(0 to 0.05 W/m2).The emissions from the transportation and building sectors showed obvious diurnal variations and seasonal variation could be observed from the thermal power sector.In 2020 and 2030,the total emission in China will reach 146.5 and 175.8 EJ/yr,and the averaged heat flux will reach 0.48 and 0.58 W/m2,respectively.Shandong,Guangdong,and Jiangsu were still characterized as the high-value areas.However,the anthropogenic heat flux in urban areas will be more concentrated.In the future,the growth in the thermal power and transportation sectors will be greater than that in the industrial and building sectors.(3)From 1965 to 2100,the global AHE continues to grow,with an increasing contribution of the Asia Pacific and slower growths in the Americas and Europe.From 1965 to 2016,global AHE from energy consumption increased from 147.4 to 485 EJ/yr,and the averaged heat flux over land increased from 0.03 to 0.10 W/m2.North America,Europe and Eurasia,and Asia-Pacific made up the majority of the global emissions.There were significant regional differences in the contribution of different energy types to AHEs.In Asia-Pacific,the largest contributor to emissions was coal consumption in China,while in the rest of the regions were mainly oil and natural gas.Regional differences were remarkable in both AHEs and fluxes.In 2016,high heat fluxes were concentrated in Asia(eastern China,Japan,South Korea,Thailand and India),Europe(western Russia and most other countries),the Middle East(Iran and Saudi Arabia),the eastern United States and parts of South America and Africa.In 2100,under the high,moderate,and low scenarios,the total global AHE will reach 1360,1160 and 920 EJ/yr,respectively.And the averaged terrestrial heat flux will reach 0.28 and 0.24 and 0.19 W/m2.Most of the growth in future will come from non-OECD countries.In addition,global AHEs will shift from the Americas and Europe to Asia,the Middle East and Africa.(4)Over the past three decades,China's atmospheric chemical pollutants emissions from energy consumption have experienced a tendency of rising first and then decreasing.In the future,the overall decline in total emissions will be more significant,but some pollutants will appear to have major fluctuations,and may even rise slightly.From 1985 to 2016,the emissions of SO2 and dust fluctuated but the general trend was declined,and a peak emission of NOx could be observed from 2010 to 2016.The emission of various pollutants per unit of GDP maintained a significant decrease.East China and North China have always been the major contributors to emissions,as evidenced by the 41-51%of SO2,dust,and NOx emissions.The total quantities of air pollutant emissions from energy consumption in 2015 were:22.8 Tg SO2,19.8TgNOx,140.7TgCO,8.6TgPM10,5.4 TgPM2.5,1.5TgBC,2.1 TgOC,and 0.3 Tg NH3.Industry was found to be the main contributed sectors and coal was the dominated energy type for pollutant emissions,followed by diesel.High-value areas were concentrated in areas such as North China,Northeast China,the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,the Sichuan Basin and the Yellow River.The projection results indicate that the emissions of SO2,CO,PM10,PM2.5,BC and OC will gradually decrease and that of NH3 will gradually increase.The emission of NOx will drop initially and then increase from 2016 to 2030,and the emission pattern will change from point to area.Contribution of the industrial sector to each type of pollutants will continue to decline,and the transportation sector will be the main contributor to air pollution in China in the future.In addition,the economic development potential of the central and western regions is even more pronounced,and the future pollutants emissions will shift from east to west.(5)Uncertainty analysis based on the Monte-Carlo simulation showed that the uncertainty of China's and global AHE inventories were varied between-9.0-9.8%and-16.0-15.7%,respectively.The uncertainties of SO2,NOx,CO,PM10,PM2.5,BC,OC,and NH3 emissions were-45-82%,-39-58%,-44-80%,-48-101%,-45-80%,-38-69%,-45-82%,and-25-33%,respectively.In summary,the total quantities of China's and global AHEs will continue to rise in the future for a long time.Although the averaged heat flux is small compared to the forcing of greenhouse gases,AHEs may have more significant effects on climate and environmental system with the strengthening of greenhouse gas emission reduction and its distinct effects of surface-based heating and remarkable spatio-temporal variations.In the process of scientific research such as climatic change and policy-making,it is of great significance to pay more attention to AHEs.In the future,China's energy consumption is still the most important source of atmospheric chemical pollutants.With the declined proportion of coal and the improvement in clean utilization of energy,the energy consumption from transportation,especially diesel,will contribute significantly to the emissions.NOx and OC will both increase in the future due to the impact of the transportation sector and the emission of OC will show a shift from point to surface pollution.The emission potential of pollutants in the central and western regions will become more prominent with the economic development in the future.Therefore,the emphasis of China's future energy-related air pollution control should be to strengthen the control of transportation sector and promote the reduction of pollutants such as NOx and OC.Moreover,the spread of pollution in the central and western regions and non-urban areas should also be paid attentions. |
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