Study On Reliability Calculation Of Shan-Jing Natural Gas Pipeline Network System

With the increasing requirement of energy conservation & emission reduction and expansion of clean energy market,as the most primary clean energy,the demand of natural gas is enhancing drastically.According to the market characteristic and pipeline industrial development trend,this paper illustrates the reliability connotation of natural gas pipeline network based on traditional reliability theory,and analyzes the structure and gas supply reliability of Shan-Jing pipeline network.After that,All impact factors are quantified under sensitivity and economic analysis.Then,the reliability and economic analysis model is established based on the random topological structure.By briefly demonstrating the fundamental theory of reliability,the reliability essence and connotation of natural gas pipeline network by comparing the difference between telecommunication,electricity and transportation network.The objective of reliability analysis is divided into two parts,the structure reliability and gas supply reliability for the subsequent indexes analysis of the overall network reliability.The ultimate reliability performance is calculated by the multi-variant normal distribution theory.Due to the massive components and huge scale of pipeline network,the topological network structure is established and simplified by topology theory based on functional and structure characteristics.While deeming the stations as node and pipeline segments as linkages,the Monte-Carlo simulation is in effect for the random topological network structure generating.Consequently,the gas supply capacity is able to quantify with the determined random network structure.With the problem of great gas demand inhomogeneity,two typical conditions of peak value months and valley value months are introduced into the evaluating process.According to the different transmission amount,equipment configuration,operating parameters and topological structure,the gas supply reliability is obtained by simulation.Meanwhile,the gas inventory in pipes is analyzed by controlling and amount aspects for the gas supply assurance.The underground storage is also taken into consideration during the peak and valley value months.Otherwise,this paper quantifies the gas supply capacity influence and sensitivities from internal and external factors.This analysis may provide theoretical guidance to the specific measures for the gas supply reliability.Baed on different transmission tast,distribution strategy,technical condition and equipment configuration,the ecomonic indexes are quantified involving fixed investment and variable costs.The relationship of gas supply reliability and economic performance is demonstrated clearly.