| Under the condition of open economy,the domestic and foreign market is more closely linked,as the mineral products on the international market trading volume and transaction amount of large commodity price risk,the domestic market and the increasing possibility.Mineral product is an important raw material of national economic construction,and is an important part of domestic CPI.Therefore,domestic CPI is facing increasing risk of imported inflation and imported deflation.It is very necessary to study the price of mineral products.The existing research is mainly based on the characteristics of the mineral product price fluctuations,the three aspects of the mineral product price fluctuation causes and mineral price volatility transmission effect,causes problems mainly focus on the mineral product price fluctuations,for the study of the international transmission of mineral products less,less of the above three aspects as an organic whole is studied.At the same time,with the domestic and foreign mineral products market linkage unceasing enhancement,non symmetry of mineral products price fluctuation in the international conduction gradually,the more necessary to study the non symmetry and its causes are.Therefore,based on the summary about the characteristics of international mineral product price fluctuation,based on the price of mineral products and the cause of fluctuation of mineral product price fluctuation in the international conduction effect study,using the measure of the effect of mineral products price volatility and mineral product price fluctuation in the international conduction effect of domestic and international trade in mineral products and the analysis of the relevant data,and each other influence of each part of the genetic relationship.In theory,based on the price theory,the price fluctuation of international trade theory,power effect theory,asymmetric conduction theory and the international market forces theory,research framework of mineral products price fluctuation causes and transmission effect.Through the theoretical analysis: firstly,factors of the global economic situation,global mineral products supply and demand situation,the dollar index and the speculative factors is indeed international mineral products price fluctuation causes,and further affect the domestic mineral product price fluctuation;secondly,the mineral product price fluctuations in raw material prices along the transmission path,the consumer price conduction path and the alternative path(import(export))and alternative path four paths of international transmission;third,the welfare effect and trade the same,the welfare effect of mineral products price fluctuation in the international transmission also has power model and small model two kinds of situations;finally,the theoretical model combined with the residual demand of mineral products price fluctuation in the international power transmission model based on the derived international market forces model of mineral products price fluctuation in the international transmission power,market power and price wave display model The effect of dynamic conduction is proportional.In the empirical research,this paper firstly introduced the panel vector auto regression model,the influencing factors of the nonferrous metals international price fluctuations are estimated,and further introduces the impulse response function model based on the international price of nonferrous metal face analysis of response factors of the impact;then,using fuzzy breakpoint regression model effect on iron ore price the factors were estimated.In the mineral product price fluctuation in the international transmission power analysis framework,the model was tested from two aspects of the problem of Asymmetric Volatility Spillover and the magnitude of spillovers on China mineral products price fluctuation in the international conduction effect;the residual demand model for empirical measure of the import and export of mineral products Chinese international market forces.The following five conclusions are drawn: first,there is a long-term equilibrium between GDP and non-ferrous metals prices,that is,the price of non-ferrous metals is continuously affected by supply and demand factors.The effect of money supply on nonferrous metal prices short and intense,the financial factors will cause short-term volatility of non-ferrous metal prices;secondly,the index pricing mechanism has a significant negative impact on the price of iron ore supply and demand factors,and monetary and financial factors have a significant positive impact on the price of iron ore.Third,the price of mineral products in the international wave conduction along the transmission path,the transmission delay,transmission direction and transfer degree are asymmetric,causes of the above asymmetry is mainly short-term effects and long-term effects of the price volatility transmission direction is inconsistent;fourth,China mineral products price fluctuations in the volatility spillover international transmission have initially shown great power effect,there is such a big effect to China domestic macro-control policies will have an impact on the international market price,which makes the short-term international conduction effect price fluctuation deviates from its long-term trend,but in the range of overflow,Chinese only has fluctuation import power status,but not with the export country fifth,market position;import of mineral products China field forces greater than the export market power,Chinese export led in mineral products Market forces domain does exist lack is lack of Chinese in mineral exports in the field of market forces has hindered the magnitude of spillovers;sixth,Chinese mineral products price fluctuation in the international conduction showing the whole non symmetry,and the non conduction relationship between symmetry: on the one hand,the mineral product price fluctuation in the international influence of asymmetric the factors that cause non symmetry of the mineral product price fluctuation,the asymmetry and volatility itself can be conducted;on the other hand,the non symmetry of the Chinese import and export international market forces lead to the asymmetry of mineral products Chinese price fluctuation in the international conduction effect,which leads to the non symmetry Chinese mineral products price fluctuation in the international transmission mechanism.Based on the above analysis,this paper finally puts forward to guard against price of mineral products imported inflation and the input of a risk of deflation,the price fluctuation in the international market to stabilize the domestic mineral products and adjustment of mineral products import and export international market forces structure policy recommendations,in order to achieve the two dimensions of the domestic price of mineral products resource stability and safety objectives.The possible innovations in this paper are as follows:First,international trade,mining economy and price based on the theory,construct a framework for analysis of price fluctuation of the international transfer of mineral products,expand the basic theory of price volatility transmission of mineral products original isolated framework part makes up the research blank.In the process of research,this paper analyzes comprehensively and systematically from three aspects of mineral price fluctuation,international transmission mechanism of mineral price fluctuation and international conduction effect of mineral price fluctuation,and improves the scope of research.Second,to carry on the empirical test of mineral products price fluctuation and the international transmission mechanism based on China perspective,expanding to the origin of price fluctuations in global mineral products and real influence,prove the asymmetry of the price transmission system,and in-depth research,to draw more convincing conclusions,provide empirical evidence the formulation of macroeconomic policies and implementation.Third,innovative use of big country effect theory discussion of mineral product price fluctuation in the international conduction effect,are big and small countries two kinds of analysis framework,using the VECM-BEKK-BVGARCH model,the Chinese mineral products price fluctuation in the international conduction effect measure;on this basis,based on the APT theory,the interaction mechanism of international market power and price fluctuation in the international conduction big country model to analyze the final interpretation of the mineral product price fluctuation in the international conduction effect from the theory of international market power angle.Study on the above two aspects to further enrich the power effect and the international market forces theory,provides a good empirical evidence for subsequent research in related fields. |
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