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Research On The Investment Model And Risk Evaluation On Renewable Energy Resources Under Uncertainty

Posted on:2018-02-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J J FengFull Text:PDF
GTID:1362330548970816Subject:Technical Economics and Management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the deteriorating relationship between environmental crisis and energy supply and demand around the world,both developed and developing countries are facing more severe energy and environmental problems.As an important support for the development of modern society,the production and consumption of the power industry has received the attention of all governments.Accelerating the scientific research and technological development of renewable energy not only has the important significance of actively adjusting the national energy structure,relieving the environmental pressure and enhancing the social and economic sustainable development ability,but also an important symbol of the national comprehensive national strength and the level of scientific and technological development.However,there is a great deal of uncertainty in the development and investment of renewable energy.First is the incentive mechanism.Taking into account the greater technical risks of renewable energy,the government has introduced a series of legal systems and economic incentives to encourage renewable energy investment.The incentive effect of different incentive policies on renewable energy is different,and the uncertainty of this incentive mechanism will lead to the potential change of the investment motive of the investment subject,which will affect the scale of investment,regional choice and economic benefit of renewable energy.Second are the transmission constraints.Taking into account the large-scale renewable energy power generation is often far from the load center,the need for long-distance transmission,transmission system planning and expansion of the upgrade is becoming increasingly important,the uncertainty of this transmission constraints on renewable energy investment planning has an important impact;third are the electricity levels.Demand-side response resources have become an important resource.In the case of renewable energy investment planning,in addition to taking into account supply side resources and transmission constraints,but also need to consider the cost-effective demand side response resources.Due to the breadth and fragility of the user,there is a great deal of uncertainty in the demand side resource,which has a potential impact on the optimal size of the renewable energy investment.These uncertainties may have a negative impact on renewable energy investors and lead to investment losses.Therefore,each inventor should dialysis the characteristics of renewable energy development,identify renewable energy risks adn take risk response measures before taking investment.In the process of advancing the development of renewable energy,the uncertainty of incentive mechanism,transmission level and electricity level will increase the capital cost of renewable energy investment enterprises,and to a certain extent affect the decision-making of investment enterprises.Therefore,the study of uncertainties under the conditions of renewable energy investment and risk assessment is particularly necessary.Based on the theory of microeconomics,modern management science theory,system science theory and power system theory,this paper focuses on the application of power market economic theory and optimization method,and aims at the investment of renewable energy in the uncertainty of incentive mechanism,transmission level and electricity level,to provide technical and strategic support,and to promote the further development of renewable energy.The paper mainly carried out the following research:First,overviews of the uncertainty of renewable energy investments are researched on.From the perspective of incentive mechanism,the impact of market and non-market incentives on renewable energy investment are analyzed.From the perspective of transmission level,the influence of transmission is reported on the basis of the participation of transmission system planning for renewable energy.From the perspective of electricity level,the uncertainty about the demand side response is discussed.Second,based on incentive uncertain conditions a multi-stage renewable energy investment model is established.From the perspective of risk neutrality and risk aversion,an optimization strategy of renewable energy project investment is proposed by dynamic stochastic programming method.Third,considering the uncertain conditions of wind farm in competitive electricity market environment,a collaborative planning method of power supply and transmission network is proposed.Under the condition of considering the safe operation of the power system,the power supply and transmission network co-planning is presented to provide effective auxiliary tools for the decision-making of the power generation company and the transmission company.Fourth,the decision-making model of wind power investment target year considering different load level and wind speed is constructed.Under the condition of considering the fluctuation of the load and the price of the market,the wind power investment model is constructed to provide the decision for the wind power investment in the electricity market environment.Fifth,a life cycle of wind power investment benefit evaluation index system is established.Based on the TOPSIS model of gray relational degree,the risk control and guarantee mechanism of wind power project investment process is studied from the perspective of the whole life cycle of wind power project.
Keywords/Search Tags:Renewable energy investment, risk assessment, uncertainty, stochastic dynamic programming
PDF Full Text Request
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