A Study On Effective Assets Risk Management Of Grid Company

As a pillar state-owned monopoly industry related to national security and the pulse of the national economy,the power grid industry undertakes the social mission of providing safe,economic,clean and sustainable power supply for people's livelihood and economic development.With the improvement of people's production and living standards and the continuous progress of social civilization in recent years,the national economic development and social life improvement have become more and more demanding and dependent on the power industry.The effective allocation of grid assets to provide sustainable electrical energy is the basic requirement of modem society for gridenterprises.The new round of power system reform has caused great changes in the power market structure,and has forced the grid companies to change the traditional economic model of asset management and explore new development models that are more in line with the new environmental requirements in order to continuously meet the requirements of current social service performance and power enterprise management performance.The qualitative and quantitative techniques and methods for the scientific and rational risk managementare conducive to improving the serviceability,reliability,safety and sociality of effective assets of power grid enterprises,and are conducive to improving the level of risk management of power grids in an all-round way.The achievement of the established performance and future performance of power enterprises depends not only on the high degree of unification of power decision-makers and implementers in management thinking and execution,but also on the quality of management and operation of grid assets,and on the risk management and control of grid effective assets.Therefore,the research on effective risk management of power efficient assets is very important.Based on the PAS55 effective assets theory to define the connotation of grid effective assets,this paper adopted the risk management theory,grounded theory,management science,sociology engineering,econometrics,Bayesian theory and other disciplines to construct the grid effective assets risk management framework system.At the same time,combined with the case studies,quantitative research on human error,and other research methods,the risk induction mechanism of the grid effective assets was analyzed.Secondly,on the basis of grasping the scientific connotation of the grid effective assets,it payed attention to the risk assessment,risk decision-making and risk control of the effective assets from three dimensions:namely the fixed assets,human assets and information assets.Finally,some reasonable suggestions were made for the grid effective assets risk management.Firstly,the research statuses of the power grid risk management,the risk management of grid effective assets and the Bayesian risk theory decision in grid risk management were systematically combed and analyzed.On this basis,the specific technical route of grid efifective assets risk management was clarified.Subsequently,based on the analysis on the national power grid major accidents in the past 17 years using the grounded theory,the risk identification of the grid effective assets was carried out.By systematically analyzing the risk events,policy text and related literature of the grid enterprises,and combining the research paradigm of PASS5 assets management,the spindle coding analysis,selective coding analysis and theoretical saturation tests were conducted on the factors affecting the risks of the grid effective assets.Subsequently,three structural dimensions affecting the risk management of the grid effective assets were identified,namely the fixed assets(equipment)risk,human assets risk and information assets risk.Furthermore,a conceptual model of the induced factors was constructed.Then,based on the CBRM system,the risk assessment of the grid effective assets was carried out.In the assessment,the power transmission tower and the information assets equipment GIS breaker,which were typical representative of the power grid enterprises,were selected to conduct the risk assessment of the asset status.The specific evaluation index included the grid performance,finance,safety,environment,etc..Furthermore,the risk of information failure and information leakage generated in the process of fixed assets operation and management,as well as the risk of lost time injury and performance impact factors in human assets were evaluated by specific examples.Subsequently,the risk decision of the grid effective assets was studied.This part proposed a risk decision-making plan from three aspects:fixed assets,human assets and information assets of power grid enterprises.For example,the Bayesian inference was performed on the fixed assets which mainly included the operation and maintenance materials fees,maintenance fees,GIS maintenance fees,and main change maintenance fees of the grid effective assets.The profit or loss of these expenses as a function of the probability of occurrence was predicted to define the risk of fixed assets.For the risk analysis of human assets,the probability of human error was firstly measured,and the probability and severity of these action error modes were further evaluated.Subsequently,the estimated performance impact factor probability was selected.Finally,the losses caused by these probabilistic changes were determined to make the risk decisions.For the risk decision of information assets,the actual and measuring failure rates of a grid assets under specific operating conditions were predicted.The probability of non-blackout time was predicted to provide a basis for the risk decision-making of information assets.Finally,the risks of the grid effective assets were controlled.In the process of risk control,a mathematical relationship between the GDP of the grid enterprise area and the amount of electricity supplied was established based on OLS and cointegration ideas,and then the total amount and component of fixed assets were predicted through the power supply required by the economic development of the grid enterprise area,so as to achieve the risk control of the future fixed assets from both the total amount and the component.Secondly,the failure rate of fixed assets in the whole power grid was controlled by the scientific measurement on the quantity of fixed assets equipment.The corresponding assets allocation for each unit of reduction for the corresponding failure rate was predicted.Finally,the risk control of information assets was conducted from three aspects:namely strengthening the information risk decision-making ability;implementing the management and control integration for different stages of information assets risk management;and strengthening the information assets security protection.The human assets risk control was strengthened by improving the personnel's own quality and the external environment,and transferring the risk.Finally,based on the risk sharing model and the institution building,the risk management recommendations were suggested from the perspective of the supplier management and the company's own operation management.