| The realization of a well-to-do society in China,the revitalization of rural areas and the construction of a beautiful and better China must depend on ecological protection and green,circulation and low-carbondevelopment.Timber,as a sustainable raw material with renewable,low energy consumption and low pollution,will become an important raw materials for the development of China's economic life and the improvement of pepole's living standard.At present,China has carried out the policy on comprehensive ban of commercial logging in natural forest,which led to the new problems of domestic timber supply and the increasing of foreign dependence degree.While at the same time,due to the international environmental protection policies,trade policies,and roundwood and sawnwood export restriction polices implemented by trading partners,China is facing a huge challenge on importing timber to make up for domestic supply shortages and the gap between timber supply and demand is enlagering.Therefore,timber security has become a major problem for resource strategy and an increasingly complex international political issue.This study aims to define the concept and logical framework of timber security,define the connotation and research ideas of timber security warning,analyze the status and problems of China's timber security,and establish an evaluation indicator system to deeply analyze the warning conditions and forecast the situation of China's timber security.The results of this study are of significance to grasp the timber security situation and make the prevention and control measures in time,establish accurate and scientific forest protection policies and timber security strategies,and ensure sustainable and healthy development of timber industry.The research content mainly included the following aspects:(1)The definition of timber security and its logical framework.The supply and demand theory of timber,industrial structure theory,industry security theory and trading security theory were elabrated in this paper.The connotation of timber security was defined in such three aspects as supply security,industry security and trade security and the influencing factors were analyzed in this paper.Meanwhile,the connotation of early-warning and the research process was stated.(2)The status quo and the existing problems of China's timber security.Based on the statistical data in 1997-2015,the status quo and the existing problems of China's timber security were analyzed deeply by method of statistical analysis in four aspects of China's forest resources,timber processing industry,trade of timber products,and the influence on timber supply and timber processing industry from protection policies of natural forests.(3)The establishment of indicator system of China's timber security.Using the PSR conceptual model and on the basis of the cause-and-effect relationship among pressure,state and response,the timber security problems were analyzed and an early-warning indicator system of timber security was built in several aspects of society,economy,resources,industry,trade,technology and policy.(4)Warning analysis of China timber security.Based on the indictor data of China timber security early warning from 1997 to 2015,the weight of China timber security early warning indicators were determined by the entropy method.The warning index of China's timber security from 1997 to 2015 were calculated by using multi-objective linear weighting method.Then the warning degree threshold was determined by using theses systematic methods such as majority principle,median principle and mean principle,and the warning conditions of China's timber security and their reasons were analyzed in these aspects of pressure,state,response and comprehensive level.(5)The prediction of China's timber security early-warning.The data of each indicator of China's timber security early warning during 2016 to 2025 were predicted by GM(1,1)model and Holt-Winters.On this basis,the BP neural network model was established by using the principle of BP neural network.What's more,an optimal model was determined to forecast the situation of China's timber security by using cross validation method to make a training and testing on the neural network.(6)The countermeasures and suggestions of China's timber security.The suggesstions of timber secutrity were proposed in two aspect of State and Response based on empirical analysis results of timber security early-warning.The main conclusion of this paper are as follows:(1)The process of timber security early-warning was proposed as identifying the meaning of early-warning,finding the crisis origin,analyzing the situation,forecasting the warning degree,and giving feedback.(2)The exsiting problems of China's timber security were as follows: 1)the supply capacity of natural forest was restricted by the implementation of natural forest protection policy,and the low quality and productivity of plantation had led to a decline of China's total timber supply;2)although the wood processing industry has continued to grow,and had formed a certain industrial structure with a certain scale,problems such as the small scale of timber processing enterprises,the weak competitiveness of products,and its environmental pollution had become the main reasons restricting the rapid growth of timber processing industry;3)international environmental protection policies,trade policies of various countries and policies to combat illegal logginghave brought greater uncertainty to China's timber imports;4)the policy on comprehensive ban of commercial logging in natural forest had led to the decrease of domestic timber supply,especially to the timber processing industries in the natural forest area.Most enterprises in this region were led to suspension,relocation or closure.(3)In the warning indicator system of China's timbe security,the weight of resources and supply were the largest,the second is trade status indicators,and then is the industry technical response indicators and pressure indicators,which showed that the forest resource state level is a major factor affecting China's timber security,followed by the international timber trade status.the timber industry technical progress index and the waste paper recovery rate in wood comprehensive utilization and wood supply also play a huge role.(4)The warning degree of pressure on China's timber security from 1997 to 2015 was maintaining in ‘non-alarm',but the warning index indicated a fluctuation curve.the warning degree of state on China's timber security from 1997 to 2015 went through a change from ‘non-alarm' to ‘midem alarm' and ‘non-alarm',and the warning index indicated a U-shaped curve.The warning index of response from 1997 to 2015 indicated a straight climb trend and the warning degree went through a change from ‘high alarm' to ‘non-alarm'.due to the development of industry technology and the recycled utilization.The trend of comprehensive warning index of China's timber security was changed as a ‘U' shaped curve,and the warning degree was changed from ‘non-alarm' to ‘light alarm' to ‘non-alarm'.(5)With the development of Chinese economy,China's urbanization rate and GDP would expand from 2016 to 2025,while timber external dependency and import concentration of China would rise,and the timber production of natural forest pretected area would decline,which might lead to the risk of timber security in the future.Meanwhile,because of the influnce on indicators of resource state and technical response,the warning degree of China's timber security were basically maintained in the “none alarm” state during 2016 to 2025,but the warning index showed a trend of rising and decline;therefore,the monitoring and prevention should be strengthened.(6)The countermeasures and suggestions were put forward in the following aspects of forest resources,timber trade,industrial transformation and upgrading and wood recycling. |
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