Research On Effect Of Trade Liberalization On China’s Animal Husbandry In FTA

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China’s trade liberalization has been accelerating.China has opened up the process of multilateral trade liberalization,China’s import and export trade has grown significantly,with accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001.In recent years the Doha Round has been struggling,China has been focusing on the development of trade liberalization promoted by regional economic integration.In recent years,China’s free trade area construction has made great progress,China signed 13 free trade agreements with 22 countries and regions,China is currently negotiating for 7 free trade agreements,and has started early research with 9 countries.Free Trade Area Strategy has been promoted to national strategy,which will further accelerate China’s trade liberalization process.With the establishment of FTA between China and New Zealand,Australia which are animal husbandry powers,liberalization driven by FTA not only deeply affected the livestock trade,but also affected the livestock production and other aspects.China is accelerating the process of building a free trade area.Trade liberalization under FTA has both real and potential effect on China’s animal husbandry.The related research is of great significance.Based on the theory of trade liberalization and the theory of regional economic integration,this paper combins qualitative with quantitative analysis to analyze the impact of livestock product trade liberalization on China’s livestock husbandry under the FTA.Through the liberalization of trade in livestock products under the FTA,analyzing the current situation of animal husbandry in China,the paper studies the process of trade liberalization of livestock products.Using the Gravity model,VAR model and GTAP model,this paper analyzes the the real and potential effect of trade liberalization on livestock husbandry.The main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,through the expansive fixed effect gravity model,based on panel data of 20 years,the impact of trade liberalization on China’s trade of livestock products is analyzed empirically.The results show that trade liberalization has a positive effect on the import and export of China’s livestock products,but the promoting effect on exports is greater than imports.It is closely related to the geographical distribution of China’s trade of livestock products and the geographical distribution of China’s free trade agreements.Trade liberalization has a great different impact on the trade of different livestock products.The export promoting effect of livestock products is greater than that of import promotion which is opposite to raw furs.Secondly,based on the analysis of China’s trade with countries which have reached free trade agreements,it is found that trade liberalization has a great different impact on the output of different livestock products.Trade liberalization has little effect on the production of domestic pork and poultry meat.Beef imports from the free trade area supplement the production of domestic beef to a certain extent,and the large amount of imported lamb has a negative impact on domestic mutton production.Dairy products imported from New Zealand which is highly competitive is not conducive to the development of China’s dairy industry.The imports of wool by trade liberalization supplement the lack of domestic production of wool,but the domestic wool industry has had a negative impact.The exports of eggs increased from China to the FTA member countries less affected domestic egg production.Thirdly,the author analyzes the effect of trade liberalization on the price of livestock products in FTA.In recent years,China’s mutton producer prices are much higher than the New Zealand mutton producer prices.Tariff concessions lead to prices of New Zealand mutton import decline,and prices of mutton import vary under the item of different HS code.Through the VAR model,the prices of New Zealand mutton import have the positive impact on domestic mutton prices and it gradually lead to changes of domestic mutton prices in CNFTA.China’s raw milk producer prices have been higher than New Zealand’s raw milk producer prices for a long time.For tariff concessions,the reduction of annual import price of the yogurt and whey are more than the reduction of annual import price of liquid milk,milk powder and cheese which have longer import duties holiday.The impulse response function and variance decomposition show that,the prices of New Zealand import dairy products obviously affect the prices of domestic dairy product for a long time.Finaly,through the GTAP model,this paper analyzes the future of China’s trade liberalization on the impact of China’s animal husbandry.The results show that trade liberalization in general promote the development of China’s livestock trade,but the difference exits among specific livestock products,wool and dairy products have a greater influence,other products have ralatively small effect.Trade liberalization will further expand the trade deficit of Chinese livestock products.Future trade liberalization will intensify competition among large animal husbandry countries,China’s wool and dairy imports prices will decline,other livestock prices will rise slightly,but the domestic market price have relatively small effect.Both short-term and long-term trade liberalization will have a negative impact on domestic main livestock production,especially domestic production of wool,dairy products and meat will fall in different degrees.According to the conclusion of the analysis,it suggests strengthening the competitiveness of Chinese livestock products and adopts a flexible and prudent free trade area policy.