The Decision Mechanism And Effect Of Organic Fertilizer Substituting Chemical Fertilizer

Green agricultural development is closely related to food safety,resource security and ecological security,and contributes to the construction of China's ecological civilization and beauty.The substitution of organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers is an important measure to realize the reduction of chemical fertilizers and the reutilization of agricultural organic waste resources,which is an effective way to promote the green development of agriculture.As farmers are the decision-makers and implementers of the substitution of organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers,their decision-making behavior is crucial for evaluating the effect and optimizing the policy of the substitution of organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers,and achieving the goal of the substitution of organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers.Based on the characteristics of the internal and external environment of the decision-making process of fertilizer substitution,the article establish a research framework covering the internal and external conditions constraints and the most direct endogenous economic factors that affect the decision to replace chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer.Choose apple growers as the basic research unit,and study the decision-making mechanism of organic fertilizer substituting for chemical fertilizer in four steps:first,build a production function model,calculate the economically optimal input of organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer according to the conditions for profit maximization,investigate the deviation extent of actual fertilizer input from the optimal input.Second,consider the resource endowment constraints and element substitution conditions,construct an organic fertilizer application behavior model,analyze the substitution relationship between organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer,and identify the key factors that affect the decision of organic fertilizer application.Third,build a simultaneous equation model including the fertilizer input equation,yield equation,income equation,and cost equation,to analyze the interactive relationship between the decision-making behavior and the behavior effect of organic fertilizer substitution for chemical fertilizer,and reveal the behavior logic of decision-making on the substitution.Fourth,analyze typical cases of organic fertilizer substitution for organic fertilizer,compare the implementation effect and realization conditions of different fertilizer input decisions,and explore the realization path of substitute organic fertilizer for chemical fertilizer from the perspective of apple growers and government.The main conclusions mainly can be drawn as follows:Apple growers are not economically rational enough about fertilization,for which the prominent performances are excessive application of chemical fertilizers and insufficient application of organic fertilizers.In contrast,the insufficient application of organic fertilizers is more significant,so there is more space to increase organic fertilizer application.The excessive application of chemical fertilizer is manifested as relatively excessive input——the actual input ratio of chemical fertilizer to organic fertilizer is higher than the economically optimal input ratio,which highlighted the excessive application of chemical fertilizer.Therefore,the key to balance the fertilizer application ratio is to increase the application of organic fertilizer.The excess and deficiency problem coexists in fertilizer application.Insufficient application of organic fertilizer is more general compare with the former.The main factors restricting the organic fertilizer application are fertilizer price,income level,risk preference,cognitive level,and resource endowment.High-yeild-oriented production pattern is a major cause of excessive fertilizer input.Whereas there are cases where excessive application of chemical fertilizers don't lead to high output,which means increasing chemical fertilizers is not cost-effecive and beneficial to the improvement of yield.In contrast,it is feasible to increase organic fertilizer.The interactive effect of fertilizer input and output is significant.At the current fertilization level,increasing the organic fertilizer application has a significant effect on yield promotion,which doesn't apply to chemical fertilizer.Chemical fertilizer and commercial organic fertilizer input are important components of production costs,while the application of farm fertilizer is conducive to reducing production cost.The price of fertilizers,yield and capital input are important factors that affect fertilizer input decisions.Output is both the result and the basis of investment decision.According to the output,the farmers amend the fertilizer input decision until the input and output reach a satisfying equilibrium,which is the logic of the farmer fertilizer input decision.Empirical analysis shows that organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer are imperfectly substitutionable and the complementary to some degree.The practical experience of apple growers shows that the combined application of organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer is beneficial to the fertilizer input efficiency.And the combined application of "farmer fertilizer&commercial organic fertilizer&chemical fertilizer" is the economically optimal model.According to theoretical and practical analysis,improving the economic rationality of fertilizer application is the core to promte substituting organic fertilizer for chemical fertilizer.Under the internal and external constraints,adopting a long-term approach that combines policy guidance and market stimulus is the key to establishing a decision-making mechanism for organic fertilizer substitution.Judging from the reflection of policy pilots,flexible policies are more effective than restrictive ones.Currently there are some problems in the policy,such as the mismatch between fertilizer subsidies supply and demand,the overlook of farmers' demand for stable production and income increase in the policy objective constitution,and the oversimplification of the policy implementation effect evaluation.It is necessary to optimize and summarize the experience of pilot policies for substituting organic fertilizer for chemical fertilizer,and to form a working mechanism to effectively promote scientific fertilization.This article builds a relatively complete research framework for the decision-making mechanism and effect of organic fertilizer substitution for chemical fertilizer,which provides a systematic analytical idea for subsequent research.Based on the empirical research on apple growers,the analysis shows that organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer are imperfectly substitutionable,which expands the connotation of the relationship between organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer.This article proposes that the investigation of the organic fertilizer substituting for chemical fertilizer should extend from measuring the reduction of chemical fertilizers to increasing the application of organic fertilizers.And at the status quo,we should pay more attention to increase the application of organic fertilizers,which provides enlightening thinking for optimizing the decision of substituting organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers.Based on field research,this article summarizes the practice pattern of organic fertilizer substitution for chemical fertilizer.Through comparative analysis,this article makes a judgment on the implementation effect and the conditions of organic fertilizer substitution.This article proposes to take measures that combine government guidance and market stimulus to improve the economic rationality of fertilizer application,and provides a path for promoting organic fertilizers substituting for chemical fertilizers effectively.