Equipment Evaluation And Operational Plan Decision Based On Operational Data Analysis

Information and digital warfare has become an important development trend of modern warfare,operational data with an unprecedented depth runs into the various areas,elements and the time of the war.Operational data with the orderly organization and integration of cross-linked,beyond the war of physical space and human thinking space,achieves a formation of a relatively independent information space and becomes the link of combatants subjective world and objective reality of the battlefield,and thus influences deeply in the information war characteristics and winning mechanism.In the process of equipment utilization,decision-makers cannot ignore the importance of operational data.Based on the operational data,reasonable analysis and evaluation of equipment system problems are imminent.Traditional equipment evaluation and application of decision-making methods focus on specific models and subjective evaluation and the quality analysis is not enough.In the context of data analysis and data-driven,evaluating and analyzing the equipment based on operational data are the creative tools for the operations decision-making support.The main contents of this study are given as follows:(1)A framework of equipment evaluation and decision-making based on operational data analysis is proposedIn the era of big data,the emergence of data analysis methods provides a new way of thinking for a large number of researches.With regarded to the large amounts of data generated from equipment in the battle process,the evaluation and analysis of equipment are carried out,which can support equipment utilization decisions.First,the concepts of operational data and operational data analysis are discussed.Then,multi-criteria evaluation theory is introduced and the input and output of the problem are clarified.In the views of different operational data,the data is analyzed in different level,and then the idea of equipment evaluation is given.Secondly,by introducing the multi-attribute/target planning theory,the problem of equipment program selection is analyzed and the idea of equipment utilization plan decision is put forward.Finally,the research framework of this study is given,and the problem is abstracted into four sub-problems,which formed the research frame of the equipment evaluation and decision-making based on operational data analysis.(2)An equipment combat capability evaluation model based on combat test data is proposedBased on the test data of the equipment in the operational data,the correlation between the equipment system function and the final performance index is analyzed,which can reflect the capability level of the equipment participating in the combat process.First,the equipment combat capability evaluation problem is transformed into the correlation analysis problem between the function index and the performance index of the equipment system.The correlation analysis and the definition of the correlation measure index are given,and the correlation index is used as the capability evaluation index.Secondly,the data correlation(MINE,Maximal Information-based Nonparametric Exploration),the maximum mutual information correlation index(MIC)is introduced,and the calculation of the MIC index and the algorithm design are also given.The non-parametric exploratory analysis is carried through MIC index,which is used to evaluate the combat capability of the equipment.Finally,based on the simulation data of missile intercepting by the US ballistic missile defense system,the correlation analysis results of the system function-performance index data are obtained as the measure of the combat capability of the equipment system.(3)A reliability evaluation model for weapon equipment based on simulation data is proposedBased on the simulation data in the operational data of the Equipment,analysis of the reliability of equipment are carried out,with which Equipment maintenance can determine the best time to significantly reduce the damage rate of equipment,even to maximize combat effectiveness.In order to predict the reliability of equipment,a degraded system method is proposed based on DFP model.First of all,based on the multidimensional monitoring signal of the training set as the data base,the common principal component analysis(PCA)was used to extract the performance characteristics(F module)after preprocessing the data(D module).Secondly,the model library of engine degeneration was established.Finally,the residual life of the engine is predicted(P module)by matching the trajectories in the phase space of the degraded trajectory with the trajectories in the model base.As a technical indicator of the reliability of weapon systems,the remaining life provides a reference for wartime protection work involved in the maintenance and management decision-making,and serves the operational needs truly from the "data-driven" point of view.(4)A model for equipment risk early-warning evaluation based operation monitoring data is proposedIt can effectively avoid the risk and provide assistance for the decision-making of the equipment by evaluating the equipment's risk level based on the equipment operation monitoring data in the operational data.Firstly,the basic concepts of risk management and multivariate time series are described.The essence of similarity matching of equipment operation data is analyzed,and the mapping relation between risk evaluation method and time series similarity measurement method is analyzed.Secondly,the concrete flow of the dynamic time warping algorithm is combed and extended to the similarity measure method of the multivariate time series.After the effective data preprocessing,the piecewise linear representation method is used to express the time series,Two similarity measures are proposed,and the similarity of multivariate time series is measured by dynamic time warping algorithm.Then,using the nearest neighbor classification method,the similarity between the current event and the historical event is matched,the matching historical event is found by the maximum similarity degree,and the risk level is evaluated according to the consequence and occurrence possibility of the risk event.Finally,taking the fuel transportation in an equipment operation as an example,the calculation process and results of the model are demonstrated by monitoring the six key indicators data.(5)A decision model is proposed for equipment operation plan selection considering the result of operational data analysis and evaluationThe above three aspects of evaluation results can be used as information input for equipment use program decision-making process,by being considered separately or comprehensively.Firstly,this study describes the decision-making problem of equipment operation plan considering the result of operational data analysis and evaluation,and designs the basic framework of the decision-making process of equipment operation plan,and gives the equipment for the whole combat process Classification and all-element military value evaluation.Secondly,on the basis of the above,the study analyzes the equipment utilization plan and constructs the evaluation index of military value based on the atomic structure of the equipment.Data analysis of the results of individual or integrated results are used as value in military value assessment in order to maximize the use of equipment program and optimize the military value of the target,with the military value of demand and funding constraints for the establishment of equipment utilization plan decision-making model.Finally,taking the missile defense system as an example,the operational evaluation of equipment for combat missions and the sort of analysis are carried out to verify the decision-making model of practicality and effectiveness.