Japanese Think Tanks And Japanese Diplomatic Decision-making

Japan is a close neighbor of China separated only by a strip of water and is an important external influence and strategic presence for China's peaceful development and surrounding security.China and Japan have gone through a friendship for thousands of years and a war for a century,and they have a complex relationship of in culture,affection and geography.Today,China and Japan still have profound structural contradictions in terms of territory,history,security and status.Since the beginning of the 21st century,with changes of the international situation and the adjustment of two countries' strength,there are unceasing frictions between China and Japan,and Sino-Japanese relations have fallen into confusion.The exchange of visits between the Chinese and Japanese leaders in 2018 temporarily eased the tense relationship between the two countries.However,Sino-Japanese relations still coexist with cooperation and competition,sensitivity and divergence.The Japanese think tank was founded in the 1970s.After decades of development,it has formed its own distinctive characteristics.It used to be the most developed think tank in Asia,and still has important influence among think tanks in Asia and the world.With the changes of the international and Japan domestic environment,Japan's traditional foreign policy-making mechanism is gradually disintegrating,and the decision-making participant is showing a trend of diversification.The role of Japanese think tanks in foreign policy decisions can be estimated.A research of Japanese think tanks,especially of the think tank influencing Japan's diplomatic policy,is an important access to deeply understanding and studying Japan's diplomatic decision-making,strategic direction and Sino-Japnese relations.This thesis consists of the introduction,the main body of four chapters and the conclusion.Core chapters are divided into four parts.The first chapter systematically introduces the development history and status of Japanese think tanks.This chapter mainly introduces the history and stages of the development of Japanese think tanks,the international evaluation of Japanese think tanks,the development status,the types,managing and operating modes and mechanisms,based on the history of Japanese politics and economy.The purpose is to understand and grasp the whole picture of the Japanese think tank through an introduction to overall think tanks and certain typical ones like the diplomatic and security think tanks from various dimensions.This will lay a solid realistic foundation for further researches on Japanese think tanks and Japanese diplomatic decision-making mechanism.The second chapter attempts to construct an analytical framework based on the chain of "foreign decision-making analysis theory—the mode of think tank's participation in making decisions—Japanese foreign policy-making mechanism—functions of Japanese think tanks on diplomatic decision-making".The main purpose is to find a theoretical basis for the practice of Japanese diplomatic and security think tanks to participate in making foreign policy decisions,through linking the main theories of Western foreign policy decision-making analysis,main theories of Japanese diplomatic decision-making analysis and main theories of think tanks participating in making foreign policy decisions.While explaining the main foreign policy analysis theory,it analyzes the formation process of the Japanese diplomatic decision,the changes and characteristics of the foreign policy decision-making mechanism after the Cold War,especially the reasons for those changes.In the analyzing process,the Japanese think tank is placed in the theory of diplomatic decision-making analysis and the formation of Japanese diplomatic decision.The third chapter focuses on the typical cases of Japanese think tanks' participation of foreign policy.Through the continuous tracking and interview of major Japanese think tank websites during the doctoral study period,the first two sections introduces the Japan Ocean Policy Research Institute and the Defense Research Institute with different organizational forms as the research objects.These two think tanks' basic situations,organizational operation and roles playing in the formation of Japan's marine policy and the introduction of security guarantee policies has been studied,with the avoidance of the "black box" problem that foreign policy-making research has to face.To some extent,this verifies functions of Japanese-specific professional think tanks in Japan's diplomatic decision-making process.This paper examines the unique"temporary Japanese think tank" phenomenon and finds that when traditional think tanks cannot play a part,the earnest talk replaces them to participate in making foreign policy decisions.The fourth chapter,from the perspective of Japan,demonstrates think tanks'researches on Sino-Japanese relations.Based on the research reports,policy suggestions and seminar contents published on the Japanese think tank website,the paper focuses on the views and attitudes of Japanese think tanks on important sensitive issues such as "China threat" and "China's rise".Based on the well-known think tanks'researches on China such as the PHP Research Institute and the Defense Research Institute,this paper has sorted out the texts published in recent years that have a strong influence on the Japanese public and even the government.Eventually,it is clear that how they realize Chinese "coexistence of containment and cooperation" and the prevention alongside with contact" of Sino-Japanese relations.Based on the research of these parts,the paper draws the following conclusions:First,the experience of the Japanese think tanks' development and their participation in making foreign policy decision is worthy for China to learn from,such as the legalization,internationalization and networking of think tank construction.Second,the adjustment period of the Japanese think tank will not end in the short term.The factors that affect the overall development of the Japanese think tank,such as human capital and financial resources,and weak decision-making participation,are difficult to change in the short term.Third,the development of Japanese think tanks and their roles in foreign policy decisions are influenced by factors at home and abroad.The most important factor is the domestic political environment and political system,especially the influence of Japanese bureaucratic decision-making systems.Fourth,Japanese awareness of think tanks has generally improved.In the context of "political dominance"in Japan,it will have a greater room for improvement of think tanks' functions in making foreign policy.Besides,the ability of main think tanks to provide suggestions for the Japanese government cannot be ignored.Fifth,Japanese think tanks aiming at foreign policy have formed a specific "collusion" effect studied by organizational behavior in a certain sense,and have obvious "double structure" characteristics in dealing with Sino-Japanese relations.The strategic appeal of Japan's pursuit of "autonomous politics" will not change in a short term.The trend of national conservatism based on the Japan-US alliance will not change.The "pragmatism" strategy of preventing and cooperating with China will not change.We must be alert to the fact that Japanese think tanks,especially think tanks influencing foreign policy,have formed a "collusion" effect with Japanese conservative political groups,and have formed some special emotional decision-making preferences in China's diplomatic decision-making process.Exploring the relationship between Japanese think tanks and Japanese foreign policy decision-making mechanism can infer the direction of Japan's future foreign policy and its impact on Sino-Japanese relations from a new perspective.It also helps to avoid the interference of Japanese domestic factors such as think tanks on the long-term and stable development of Sino-Japanese relations.