| Since 2014,China has entered a period of relatively low economic growth.GDP growth rate has been slowed down to 6.6 percent in 2018.Relatively low growth of China's economic development is the new normalization.Along with the lower GDP growth,the real economy irrvestment is insufficient compared with the past.In view of the profit-seeking of property,more and more funds have entered the asset investment market,especially the stock market and the real estate market,which increase asset price fluctuation and bring huge financial risks.Based on the intense price fluctuations in the stock market and the real estate market,the regulatory authorities has repeatedly mentioned that "Ensuring that no systemic financial risk occurs",which has become the regulatory target of the government management.No systemic risk means that ensture the stability and security of the financial system.There are many factors which cause asset price fluctuation,but they are all because of people's participation ultimately.Demographic dividend is an important source of economic performance and social development in China.The changes in population structure and the consequent effects on investment philosophy are important origins of asset price fluctuations.In the past few years,China's population structure and population policy have been changing.The population age structure is the most important core in population structure.In the 21st century,China's population age structure has been undergone the tremendous changes,the demographic dividend has disappeared,and China has been entered into an aging society ahead of schedule.At this background,China has liberalized the "second child,policy,which has brought a new population age structure change in the short term,that is,the number of underage children has increased significantly.Then,China will face a growth of both the elderly and the minors in the future.These changes will definitely have a huge impact on the asset investment market and will also affect China's financial stability.Therefore,it makes extremely important sense both in theoretical and practical affairs to study the effect of changes in population age structure on financial stability.The paper starts with the changes in risk aversion which comes from the changes in population age structure,and studies the effect of the changes in population age structure on financial stability.The logic of the paper is as follows:(1)The changes in population age structure will affect the risk aversion and the asset allocation firstly.Risk aversion is the subjective consciousness,while asset allocation is the result of objective behavior,but the changes in risk aversion and the changes in asset allocation are in the same process.Because of the changes in risk aversion,the person has different tendencies of asset selection and different results of asset allocation according to the different ages.(2)The changes in risk aversion and changes in asset allocation will cause the changes in the market's demand for various assets,thereby changing the price of the corresponding asset.If the population age structure causes a significant growth in the proportion of households in an asset,the asset price will be increased.On the contrary,if the population age structure causes a significant reduction in the proportion of households in an asset,the asset price will be dropped.Therefore,the changes in population age structure will lead to asset price fluctuation.(3)Financial stability will be ultimately affected by asset price fluctuations through macroeconomics,baiking systems,capital markets and other ways.The impact of asset price volatility on financial stability is comprehensive.The moderate growth in asset price is beneficial to financial stability.However,if the growth of asset price is excessive and even brings about bubbles,the damage to the financial stability is enormous.If the population age structure brings about a steady change or a moderate growth in the price of stocks,real estate and other important assets,then the entire financial system is stable.Conversely,if the population age structure causes continuously drastic fluctuation of asset priees,the skyrocketing and Plunging will destroy the financial stability.Therefore,the changes in population age structure will have an impact on financial stability.Based on the logic of the paper,the influence path of the changes in population age structure on the financial stability is as follows:the changes in population age structure firstly affect the risk aversion and bring about the changes in asset allocation.The changes in asset allocation bring about the fluctuations of asset price,and the fluctuations of asset price ultimately affect financial stability.The paper is composed of eight chapters:Chapter 1 is an introduction.It mainly introduces the research planning and the current research status in China and abroad,and proposes the innovation and deficiencies of the paper.Chapter 2 is "the mechanism about the impact of the changes in population age structure on financial stability." Firstly,the paper defines the concept of the research object.Then it comprehensively analyzes the research goal "financial stability",studies the connotation and measurement methods of financial stability,defines the financial stability index system and index synthesis methods,and gives the formula for calculating the index value of financial stability.Finally,it analyzes the internal mechanism and related basic theories about the influence of the changes in population age structure on financial stability.Chapter 3 is "the influence path of the changes in population age structure on the financial stability."Firstly,the micro-household balance sheet is used to analyze the changes in the individual household asset allocation,then extend to the changes in the overall macro-household asset allocation,and analyze the relationship between the asset price fluctuation and the changes in the household asset allocation.Finally,it analyzes the relationship between the asset price fluctuation and the financial stability from three aspects:macroeconomics,banking system and capital market.Chapter 4 is "the status,characteristics and development trends of the global population age structure".It analyzes the trend of the changes in population age structure in the whole world and major countries.Chapter 5 is "the empirical test about the impact of the changes in population age structure on the risk aversion and the asset allocation.H It has been tested from both micro and macro perspectives.Chapter 6 is "testing the impact of the changes in population age structure on asset Price Fluctuations".The impact of the changes in population age structure on asset price fluctuations was examined in three ways which is divided into three parts.The first part examines from the perspective of graphical trend and qualitative description.The second part examines the impact of the changes in the US population age structure on US asset price fluctuation based on the changes in the generational population structure in specific historical stages of the United States.The third part is the empirical test with the domestic and foreign relevant data based on metrological model.Chapter 7 is "the empirical test about the impact of the changes in population age structure on the financial stability." Firstly,by the financial stability index measurement method in Chapter 2 the paper measures the financial stability index of major countries and China.Then use the financial stability index which is calculated as the explained variable,and use the population age structure as an explanatory variable to test the impact of the changes in population age structure on the finance stability index.Chapter 8 is "the conclusions and policy recommendations." This chapter sununarizes the full paper and proposes the corresponding countermeasures.The major conclusions of the Paper are as follows:(1)The trend of global aging population is obvious;the global child rearing ratio has been declining continuously for decades,and has gradually stabilized after 2010.China,s child rearing ratio has also stabilized,but it is lower than the United States,Britain and France.(2)The changes in population age structure signifieantly affect the risk aversion and the asset allocation.The paper examines the impact of the changes in population age structure on the risk aversion and the asset allocation from the perspectives of micro-behavioral finance and macro-financial performance.The research results show that the changes in the risk aversion of the micro-investment subject that of the population age structure have a U-shaped effect;macro-financial performance shows that the population age structure significantly affects the asset allocation.(3)The changes in population age structure significantly affect the asset price fluctuation.From the perspective of the graphical trend and qualitative description,the changes in population age structure of the United States,Germany,France,Britain,Japan and China have close association with the trend of the real estate prices,and the changes in popPulation age structure of these countries have weak association witih the stock price.From the perspective of historical experience,using the analysis of the changes in the US generational population age structure,the decline of the US stock market in 2001 and 2008 is closely related to the the US generational population age structure.An important reason for the continued decline in US housing prices is that the silent generation and the baby boom generation continue to throw huge investment houses in 2006.The empirical results of global panel data prove that the changes in population age structure significantly affect the changes in the real estate priee and the stock priee;China's relevant data shows that the changes in China's population age structure significantly affect the changes in China's real estate price;but China's relevant empirical data doesn't shows that the changes in China's population age structure have a significant impact on the changes in China's stock price.(4)The changes in population age structure have an impact on financial stability,but the effects in China and abroad are inconsistent.The changes in population age structure of the major countries in the world have a significant impact on financial stability.The youth dependency ratio is negatively correlated with financial stability.The old-age dependency ratio is positively related to financial stability.China's changes in population age structure have a significant impact on the financial stability,but the Chinese youth dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio are negatively related to the financial stability.Based on these conclusions,the paper proposes policy recommendations from the following aspects:(1)In the long run,we should encourage fertility,and moderately increase the birth rate and youth dependency ratio.We should continue to observe the implementation effect of the "second child" policy,we should curb housing price increases to perform the function of "second child",policy;(2)Pay close attention to the changes in the old-age dependency ratio data,and continuously test the effect of old-age dependency ratio on the financial stability;(3)The government should improve the supply side reform of the financial market,and ensure it steady;(4)The financial asset supply structure of financial markets should be timely adjusted.Most importantly,we should strengthen the development and application of fixed income assets;(5)The government should guide the elderly to invest rationally in China;(6)The government should accelerate the construction of the social security system to implement the positive effects of the elderly on financial stability;(7)The government should strengthen financial market supervision and curb stock market price fluctuations.The innovations of the paper are as follows:(1)The paper establishes the relationship between the population age structure and financial stability,and studies the intrinsic factors affecting financial stability from the long-tern mechanism,and enriches the financial stability analysis framework.(2)The paper depicts the path of the changes in population age structure affecting financial stability,and examines the role of asset alloeation and asset priee fluctuations in the proeess of financial stability caused by the changes in population age structure.(3)The paper tests the effect of the changes in population age structure on financial stability.It was found that the effect of the elderly in China and other countries on the financial stability was different. |
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