The Mechanism Of Monetary Policies Affect Corporate Cash Flow Risk

In 2008 the U.S.credit crisis has bad influence to our country for export,economic growth and employment.Later that year,the State Council introduced a package of active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy "four trillion" economic stimulus plan,a battle aimed to save the economy was employed.For 2009?2010 two years,rising prices,real estate prices soaring,folk began to doubt and criticize the effect of "four trillion" the stimulus package,while the official was defending its position constantly,at last by the end of 2010 "four trillion" stimulus package quietly resolved.To control the rising price level in 2011,central Banks employed tighten monetary policy to control currency amount in the market.Since the economic developed provinces such as Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Guangdong,the bosses run away and private enterprise went bankruptcy one after another.Various experts debated each other caused by "guo jin min tui" phenomenon and fill in various occasions.Many doubts about "four trillion"economic stimulus plan further,think it is a major cause of the private enterprises to seek bankruptcy protection.One famous scholar even put forward the "four trillion"stimulus package is deadly poison...However,even if famous expert published views on the popular media such as television,newspaper that were mostly conceptual,lack of systemic and data support.Corresponding is that academic journals still lacks the evaluation research about "four trillion" economic stimulus plan.Based on the above research background,this paper aims to evaluate the "four trillion" economic stimulus package launched in 2008.The researches get through three aspects:First,does the "four trillion" economic stimulus plan help enterprise out?Second,for the "four trillion" economic stimulus plan if there is a price,what bad influence for enterprise cash flow situation?Third,whether there is a causal relationship between "four trillion" economic plan in 2008 and private enterprises bankruptcy boom in 2011?To answer the above questions,we will research topics focus on:the influence of the loose monetary policy for the enterprise cash flow risk.And cash flow risk usually refers to the professional noun "financial difficulties" in accounting empirical research.This paper adopts normative research combined with empirical research method.Concept,theoretical derivation,summarizes the conclusion mainly normative research plan,see chapter 1,the second chapter,the third chapter,chapter 4th and chapter 5th.And the 6th chapter and the 7th chapter is mainly empirically research on the normative concept framework of the 4th chapter.On the empirical method,mainly adopts the variance analysis and multiple linear regression methods.More specific,includes moderation variables and mediation variables.From macro,the macro to the micro,as well as microscopic three levels of analysis,the study reached the following conclusions:the goal of loose monetary policy objectives is not consistent with enterprises.To promote full employment,the central government adopted economic stimulus programs,in part at the expense of enterprises by increasing business external uncertainty.In traditional macroeconomic theory,companies provide employment as the main carrier,whose interests are often ignored at the policy-making process.The conclusion indicates that easing monetary policy in order to promote employment or economic growth operates at the expense of corporate uncertainty.In the macro-control process,as the main carrier of employment,corporate interests are often ignored.This paper focused on the relationship between monetary policy and financial risk,and found that 2009,2010 loose monetary policy significantly boost listed companies out of the 2008 financial predicament;We also find that the relation of monetary policy and financial risk influenced by corporate investment or debt financing.That means large-scale corporate investment or external debt financing will offset the positive impact of easing policy on the financial health of the enterprise.When tightening monetary policy,those investment or debt financing behavior will exacerbate the negative impact to corporate financial risk.The article also examined the tightening monetary policy impact on bank lending growth of listed companies.Relative to the state-owned enterprises,private enterprises have a greater impact that bank lending growth fell more.Compared with less developed areas,the listed companies of the high market developed area have been affected more by tightening monetary policy that bank lending growth fell even more.Even more shocking,state-owned enterprises in less developed areas,the average growth rate of loans has increased;And corresponding to the developed areas of private enterprises,the average growth rate decline is the most great.The paper also studies enterprise strategy in the loose monetary policy environment.Research suggests that under the loose monetary policy environment,the optimal strategy of state-owned enterprises is acquiring rival,second strategy is to increase investment,reach economic of scale and the lowest unit costs of production.And for private enterprises,if its competitor is the state-owned enterprises,the cost per unit after the investment is expected to less than your opponent's unit variable cost,the optimal strategy is the enterprise to sell.