The Fluctuation Of RMB Exchange Rate,Conduction Effect And Corporate Cash Flow Research

Exchange rate policy is not only an important macroeconomic regulation and control policy,it is also a critical policy levers and tools of regulating international trade balance,especially along with our country become the world’s largest trading nation,particularly highlight its importance.And cash flow as the "blood,of enterprises,how to realize the optimization management has always been the focus of theoretical and practical circles,surplus abundance doesn’t mean enterprise cash flow"Tat".Countries in the formulation and implementation of macroeconomic policy,often assumed role through certain conduction mechanism and methods of micro enterprise operating behavior,in the hope of this intervention enterprise output and economic benefit,realizes the industrial and trade tilt,meet the national regulatory goals and objectives of economic regulation.Exchange rate policy as one of national important macroeconomic policy,whether it will affect the micro enterprise cash flow operation,If the answer is yes,it is through what kind of path and mechanism to affect the micro enterprise cash flow,this article will attempt to find the answer based on related theories and methods.First of all,this paper based on the RMB exchange rate policy as a research starting point,combining the theory of financing constraints,a-share listed companies in our country during 2003-2011 as research samples,studied the traits and characteristics of cash-cash flow sensitivity of listed companies in the RMB exchange rate policy tightening and easing.Study found that when the RMB exchange rate policy tightening or the RMB appreciation slowing,external financing constraints slow down,companies cash accumulation will tend to be lower,cash flow sensitivity changes,with the corresponding,when the RMB exchange rate policy loosening or the RMB appreciation rapidly,external financing constraints,companies tend to use cash flow accumulation will tend to be more stable.The study also found that,at the time when the exchange rate policy tends to be tightening or the RMB appreciation slowing,its cash-cash flow sensitivity decreased more obvious of the financing constraints enterprise,while the stable RMB exchange rate policyto reduce cash-cash flow sensitivity effects is not obvious for the non-financing constraints enterprise,because the non-financing constraints have higher financing convenience,it not have the obvious tendency to accumulate cash with cash flow and not sensitive to the changesof the RMB exchange rate policy,and this is also the evidence of mutual cooperation mechanisms between the monetary policy and exchange rate policy.Secondly,To explore why enterprise cash flow is more sensitive to the RMB exchange rate policy,we need to study the mechanism of action of RMB exchange rate policy and so on,that means we need to study the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on import and export commodity price conduction effect,thus the next,we use monthly indicators and data such as RMB exchange rate,customs import and export commodity price index,producer price index and so on during January 1995-September 2013,through the methods such as the vector auto-regression,co-integration,granger and so on,tested the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on import and export commodity price conduction effect,the study found that there are significant conduction effect of the RMB exchange rate volatility on China’s import and export commodities,and the transmission speed faster,it also conforms to the characteristics of the conduction effect of the developing countries.Moreover,based on the study of theconduction effect of RMB exchange rate,this paper analyzedhow to adjustand management the sales revenue and cost of productionof the import and export enterprises according to the conduction effect of exchange rate fluctuations,this would form a cost viscous effect.Combined with the cost viscous theory,to study thecharacteristics of the cash flow which under the mechanism of cost viscous effectof enterprise,a-share listed companies in our country during 2003-2011 as research samples,the study found that when revenue declined of the listed companies which have the cost viscous characteristics in our country,the cash flow was significantly decreased based on thecost viscous effect.And,under the premise of continuous appreciation of RMB,the cost viscous effect enhanced,and this is also aggravate the decline of cash flow.The research conclusion and the reality of some enterprises are basically the same at present stage in China.Finally,this paper analyzes the general direction and trend of fluctuations of RMB after we implement the floating exchange rate regime.From the point of analysis,although there is still a slight concussion,the overall trend seems to be appreciated,Just the magnitude and intensity of appreciation depending on the economic environment or policy needs prevailing in the country.Therefore,based on the background of the RMB appreciation,we divided import and export enterprises into beneficiary enterprises and damaged enterprises,after analysis and summarize the general rules and characteristics of how the RMB appreciation effect on cash flow running of two types of companies,this paper presents different cash flow equilibrium management strategies for the two types of enterprises.I hope to provide some insight and guidance to the cash flow equilibrium management for the two types of enterprises.