The Study On Regime Switching Characteristics Of China's Macroeconomy Based On MS-DSGE Model And Its Extension

Since the reform and opening up,China has achieved rapid economic develop-ment.At the same time,the economic situation is facing increasingly complex.S-ince 1992,China's quarterly average GDP growth rate achieved 9.96%,much higher than the growth rate of other countries over the same period.However,the econom-ic growth rate and inflation has also experienced significant fluctuations.In order to effectively control the economic fluctuation,China's monetary policy implementation framework and operating tools are increasingly improved,the central bank adjusted monetary policy position according to the real-time economic situation.At present,China's internal and external economic environment is more and more complex,the economic growth environment has large uncertainty.Thus,the government has repeat-edly stressed the need to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy,improve the central bank's macroeconomic regulation and control capacity.In view of this,quanti-tative analysis of China's Phillips curve,the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy and the study of its effectiveness has practical significance.This can not only help to understand the central bank monetary policy implementation mechanism,but also can improve monetary policy efficiency for central bank.Based on MS-DSGE model and its extended form,this paper focuses on the analysis of regime switching characteris-tics of the Phillips curve,the impact of public expectation on monetary policy and the choice of monetary policy objectives.Firstly,the regime switching characteristic of the Phillips Curve is studied.The Phillips Curve depicts the dynamic relationship between inflation and output,which provides an important reference for the central bank to judge the current economic sit-uation.This paper constructs a New Keynesian Open Economy MS-DSGE model with Regime Switching Domestic Product Phillips Curve and Regime Switching Imported Product Phillips Curve to discuss the nonlinear characteristics of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve.The results show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curves have obvious regime switching characteristics.In addition,according to the comparative analysis of the impulse response of different regime,it can be found that the persistence of the shock on the economic variable increases with the increase of the price sticky.Secondly,the paper explores the macroeconomic effects of public expectation.China's central bank has increasingly paid attention to the role of the expectation man-agement.This paper constructs MS-DSGE model with the regime switching of mone-tary policy response coefficients.This paper uses the counterfactual analysis to explore the macroeconomic effect of public expectation,and provides the empirical experience for the central bank to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.The results show that the MS-DSGE model can capture the regime switching characteristics of monetary policy.Through the counterfactual analysis,it is found that the anti-inflation monetary policy with the expected management can control inflation more effectively and reduce the economic loss.Finally,it discusses the regime switching characteristics of China's monetary pol-icy target.The choice of monetary policy objectives is an important topic of macroe-conomic research.According to China's actual economic situation,China's monetary policy target will be adjusted according to the economic environment.Therefore,this paper proposes a MS-DSGE model with time-varying monetary policy target to explore the characteristics of China's monetary policy switching characteristics.The empirical study shows that the MS-DSGE model can capture the regime switching characteris-tics of China's monetary policy target.In the period of overheating,the central bank prefers the output target.In the high inflation stage,the central bank chooses to peg the inflation target.In the period of substantial appreciation of the RMB,the central bank pegs to the exchange rate.The impulse response research finds that when the central bank pegs to the exchange rate target,the impact of exogenous shocks on economic fluctuations can be effectively reduced.