Research On The Choice Of Exchange Rate System Of Emerging Powers

The choice of exchange rate system has long been an important topic of concern and debate in the international financial field,namely,what kind of exchange rate system should a country choose?Choose the fixed exchange rate system or the free floating exchange rate system,or the intermediate exchange rate system.In recent years,from the perspective of the practice of the choice of exchange rate regime around the world,some countries have adjusted and perfected their exchange rate system,making the economies to the domestic and the foreign develop smoothly.However,some countries seem to be at a loss when choosing the exchange rate regime.Instead,some inappropriate exchange rate regimes have been adopted,which has led to the various problems in the economy.the emerging powers have many problems of economic development in recent year,with a lot of obvious imbalance for them.As the representative of the emerging powers,China?India?Russia and Brazil is particularly prominent.This paper attempts to find the reasons from view of the choice of exchange rate regime,and then put forward some suggestions for the emerging powers including China in the future,so as to facilitate the steady and healthy development of these countries.This paper reviewed the relevant papers on the choice of exchange rate regime,think that the choice of exchange rate regime was relatively rich,but the study is still not clear enough,the related concepts are still a little indistinct.Therefore,this paper starts with sorting out the related concepts,and defines the boundary of related concepts on this basis of comparing and summarizing these related concepts,especially for the redefinition of exchange rate regime,which is the core concept of this paper,This paper argues that the choice of exchange rate regime should not be just a simple decision,but a complete dynamic adjustment process,this process should include investigating and analyzing the object of the choice of exchange rate system,understanding the reference,determining which factors are the key for the choice of exchange rate regime,evaluating the choice of a country the exchange rate system,and how to converse the exchange rate system better etc..Therefore,Based on the redefinition of the choice of the exchange rate system,this paper includes the following aspects of the research content.The first,the Journals reviewed.This part includes the part of the theory reviewed part and the related Journals reviewed.The theory reviewed part mainly reviews the main theories for the choice of exchange rate regime,and finds that the related theories are relatively rich.and there is a great difference between theory and theory.the related Journals reviewed includes mainly the three parts,the factors that influencing the choice of exchange rate regime,the performance evaluation of exchange rate system,and the transformation of exchange rate system.These three aspects are the three core parts of the latter study.The Journals reviewed laid the foundation for the follow-up study and pointed out the direction.The second.The classification and comparative analysis of the choice of exchange rate system.This part is for the studies of the classification of the exchange rate system,and finds that there are many classifications of the exchange rate system.Based on the comprehensive evaluation,this paper confirms the IMF2009 version classification method as the research basis.Then do the comparative study from two aspects of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the choice of exchange rate system.The third,Analysis of the evolution and the main characteristics of the international exchange rate regime.This part firstly analyzes the evolution process of the international monetary system,and based on the analysis of the main characteristics of the global exchange rate regime,it puts forward proposals of the choice of exchange rate system for the emerging powers.The main conclusion is that in recent years,the exchange rate regimes of all countries of the world are moving towards the direction of exchange rate marketization for the trend,but the quantity of the countries that choose the intermediate exchange rate regime is not down but up all over the world.This proves that the disappearance of the intermediate exchange rate system is untenable.Therefore,the emerging powers,including China,have a certain reason for the choice of the intermediate exchange rate system.The fourth,the analysis of the factors affecting the choice of the exchange rate system of the emerging powers,.on the basis of combing the theories and the papers of the exchange rate regime,give the preliminary analysis of possible factors influencing the choice of their exchange rate regime,and then use multiple rank Probit model for Russia,India.Brazil,Logistic model for china to the empirical test of possible factors of thechoice ofexchange rate regime,and find significant factors of the choice of their exchange rate regime.Finally,Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis,put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.The fifth,Evaluates the performance of the choice of the exchange rate regime of the emerging powers.This part is on the basis of the Journals reviewed for the performance evaluation of exchange rate system of the second chapter,summarizes the factors of performance evaluation of the choice of exchange rate regime,and then through the,China?India?Russia and Brazil,the four counties' nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate,foreign exchange reserves and foreign debt,against the currency crisis,the four aspects,to evaluate the situation of the choice of exchange rate regime.The sixth,The conversion analysis and suggestions of the exchange rate system of the emerging powers.This part is firstly on the basis of the Journals reviewed for the conversion of exchange rate regime,construct the timing model of the choice of exchange rate regime,Secondly,briefly analyzed the conversion of exchange rate regime of the emerging powers,combined with the case analysis on the exchange rate regime transformation of Poland and Thailand,ultimately put the proposals for the choice of exchange rate regime transition of the emerging powers.The seventh,the conclusions and suggestions.the choice of exchange rate system for the emerging powers are summarized,the paper insist that the emerging powers shouldn't believe the the optimal exchange rate regime,should be based on the internal and external economic and political environment,grasp the opportunity to choose the suitable exchange rate regime,also stressed the need to pay attention to the accumulation and management of foreign exchange reserves.In addition,the special suggestions for China are put forward,such as maintaining and optimize the current managed floating exchange rate regime,and promoting the exchange rate marketization reform cautiously and gradually.