| As a pillar in the financial industry,the commercial banks play an important role in the development of Chinese economy.In a period of time,the changes of monetary policy regulation,interest rate liberalization,financial disintermediation and technicalization require commercial banks to deepen the reform and transform their development patterns.The transformation of revenue structure is the most important and direct way to take up the challenges faced by commercial banks.The author analyzes the typical characteristics of the influences brought by commercial banks’revenue structure on their profitability and business risks and sums up the experience of development for China’s research.The author hopes to make contributions to indicating directions for Chinese commercial banks’ transformation development.The research of thesis can be divided into four parts.First part is the research on the discrepancies between the revenue structures of international commercial banks,what kinds of transformations the revenue structures have underwent and their referential value for Chinese commercial banks.Second part is the research on what the level of Chinese commercial banks’ revenue structure is,the typical characteristics of revenue volatility and correlation,and the similarities and discrepancies between China’s commercial banks and international ones.Third,the author hopes to give answers about the influences of the interior structure of interest income and non-interest income on the profitability and business risks,given that the interior structures of interest income and non-interest income are complicated and there are no studies on a micro-level both at home and abroad.Fourth,based on conclusions on the influences of international commercial banks’interior structure on their profitability and business risks,the author hopes to make conclusions on the transformations of China’s commercial banks for indicating directions for their further development.According to the relative research questions,the research is conducted by adopting normative analysis and empirical analysis.First,the author chooses America,Japan and European countries and studies these well-developed economies’ revenue structures of commercial banks for observing their influences on profitability and business risks.Besides,the author also analyzes the volatility and correlation factors of revenue by adopting the revenue structure management theory.The conclusions are as follows.(1)The changing tendencies of commercial banks’ proportion of non-interest income are exactly similar in different countries,but most countries’ proportion of non-interest income was on an upward trend by 2000 while it went to a downward trend later,especially after the international financial crisis.(2)From the volatility and correlation factors of revenue,we can find the volatility of non-interest revenue is stronger than that of net interest revenue and the covariance between non-interest revenue and non-interest revenue is positive.Among interest revenues,the loan interest revenue is of the smallest volatility,followed by investment interest revenue while among the non-interest revenues,the non settlement revenue is of the biggest volatility.(3)The revenue structure of commercial banks from different countries mostly have a positive correlation with the profitability and a negative correlation with business risk.Second,the author focuses on the transformation of China’s commercial banks’revenue structure and analyzes some exterior factors faced in the transformation process such as monetary policy regulation,interest rate liberalization,financial disintermediation and technicalization.At the same time,the author also analyzes the typical characteristics of commercial banks’ revenue structures in China and the regularity of volatility and correlatio.The conclusions are as follows.(1)The transformations of commercial banks’revenue structure embodies in the changes ofthe proportion of non-interest revenue as well as in the interior structures of interest revenue and non-interest revenue.(2)On the changes of revenue structure,first,the non-interest income’s proportion is on the upward trend.Second,on the interest revenue,the loan revenue makes up the biggest part,though its downtrend is obvious.And the proportions of interbank business revenue and securities investment revenue rise.Third,on the non-interest revenue,net fee and commission revenues make up the biggest part,followed by investment revenue.And the settlement revenues’ proportions of fee and commission revenues undergo a fall and then a rise again.(3)As for the volatility and correlation factors,first,the volatility of non-interest revenue is stronger than net interest revenue.Second,their covariance is positive,.Third,among interest revenues,the volatilities of interbank business revenue,deposit revenue in central bank,loan interest revenue and investment interest revenue decrease successively while among the non-interest revenues,the volatilities from net fee and commission revenues are the smallest.Third,this is an empirical study on the influences of revenue structures of Chinese commercial banks on their profitability by adopting a conventional empirical analysis,and an empirical analysis considering the interactive effects of asset size.The conclusions are as follows.(1)The influence of proportion of non-interest revenue on profitability is not obvious.(2)Among interest revenues,the rise of interbank business revenues’ proportion can contribute to the improvement of profitability.(3)Among non-interest revenues,the rise of proportions of net fee and commission revenues can contribute to the improvement of profitability while the rise of proportion of investment revenue can lower the profitability.The rise of proportion of fee and commission revenues among settlement revenues can contribute to the improvement of profitability.Besides,when the time factor and interactive effect of different asset size are taken into consideration,there are more profound conclusions,which will be elaborated in the thesis.Fourth,this is also an empirical study on the influence of commercial banks,income structure in China with a conventional empirical analysis,and an empirical analysis considering the interactive effect of asset size and an empirical analysis based on GMM dynamic panel data model.The conclusions are as follows.(1)As for the proportion of non-interest income,two other empirical tests show the bigger the proportion of non-interest income is,the higher the business risks are,though it is not so obvious in the conventional empirical test.(2)As for the interest revenue,none of the three empirical tests show that the proportion of income from similar businesses have obvious influences on business risks,though there was a growing risk effect during 2012-2015.The growth of proportion of loan interest revenue will lower the business risks while the growth of proportion of securities investment revenues will increase the business risks.(3)As for the non-interest revenue,the test of the dynamic panel data model based on GMM shows the bigger the proportion of net fee and commission revenues are,the lower the business risks are,though the proportion is not obvious in the other two empirical analysis.The proportion of investment revenue is not obvious among the three empirical analyses,but there was a growth of risk effect during 2012-2015.Besides,while the time factor and interactive effect considered,there are more profound conclusions,which will be elaborated in the thesis.Based on the conclusions,the author gives his suggestions on policies after analyzing the influences of revenue structure on the volatility and correlation of revenues,profitability and business risks.(1)Instead of only taking increasing the proportion of the non-interest revenue of commercial banks as a development direction,the banks should also take the macro-environment and their own different factors into consideration.(2)As for the transformation of interest revenue structure,there are three aspects.First,strengthen the leading position of loan transaction from interest-rate-differential management,scale management and investment management.Second,enhance the development of securities investment and the development policies of securities investment should be made according to different commercial banks’ own situations.Third,standardize the management of interbank businesses.Strengthen the liquidity management of interbank businesses and implement the penetrating principle.(3)As for the transformation of non-interest revenue structure,there are three aspects.First,for small and medium commercial banks,it is advisable for them to focus on the settlement services,promoting the service level of payment and settlement,bank card,custody business and agency business.Second,for big commercial banks,it is advisable to continuously strengthen group collaboration and highlight subsidiary corporations’ contribution and ability of risk counteraction to their parent companies.Third,to improve the risk management of non-interest business,the banks need to strengthen risk management of innovative businesses,and promote the whole-process management and control level of risk.There are four aspects showing the thesis’s characteristics and innovations.First,as for the innovation,most researchers focused on the proportions of net interest revenue and non-interest revenue when it comes to commercial banks,revenue structure.However,the thesis initially turns to the interior structures of interest revenue and non-interest revenue.Second,as for the academic nature,based on the research on bank’s asset management theory,liability management theory,asset liability management theory and intermediary business management theory,the author expands the theories to the revenue structure management theory and applies it to commercial banks’revenue volatility and correlation,revenue structure influence on profitability and business risks.The relevant researches are of academic value.Third,as for the practical value,the analyses are conducted based by substantial data of foreign commercial banks’ revenue structures,profitability and business risk,and then the research is conducted in combination with Chinese real conditions for giving advise on transformation development.Therefore,it is of practical value.Fourth,as for its accuracy,the author chooses conventional empirical analysis,empirical analysis considering interaction effect of asset size and dynamic panel data model based on GMM.Besides,the author also gives elaborate demonstration on data selection,index selection and variable inspection for guaranteeing the accuracy. |
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