Research On The Determinants Of RMB Internationalization

2018 is China's reform and opening up 40 th anniversary.After 40 years of rapid development,China's economic strength and comprehensive national strength have been greatly improved.As the inherent requirement and inevitable result of the rise of great powers,the internationalization of RMB has also been gradually put on the agenda.Since the use of RMB in the private border trade in 1990 s,by 2009,the Chinese government pilot cross-border trade RMB settlement formally started the RMB internationalization,and then the RMB into the SDR currency basket in October 1,2016,the process of internationalization of RMB was steadily advancing.The positive progress of RMB internationalization should be driven by subjective and objective factors.Subjectively,as the second largest economy and the largest trading country in the world,China's discourse power in the international monetary system needs to be matched with the influence and contribution of China to the world economy.At the same time,a lot of use of US dollars as the valuation and settlement currency of China's international trade makes the macroeconomic regulation and control of our country often affected by the economic policy of the United States,and the continuous accumulation of reserve assets based on the dollar denominated the security of our foreign exchange reserve assets can not be guaranteed.Therefore,China needs to push forward and realize RMB internationalization step by step,which is related to China's long-term interests.Objectively speaking,after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1970 s,the international monetary system entered the Jamaica system.However,from the Bretton Woods system to the Jamaica system,it is actually a transition from the "dollar gold standard" to the "dollar standard",and the inherent defects of the international monetary system still exist.The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 were the most powerful examples.The United States,with its own national interests,made and adjusted its monetary policy,resulting in a large fluctuation in the exchange rate of the United States dollar,which made the world,especially the emerging market economies,suffered a heavy blow.The developed economies and emerging market economies outside the United States are thinking about reforming the existing international monetary system which relies too much on the US dollar.The diversification of the international monetary system has become the common voice of many countries.RMB internationalization is of great significance both in theory and practice.First,the traditional international monetary theory is carried out in the theoretical framework of western monetary economics.The analysis of the conditions,influencing factors and mechanism of the international currency internationalization,especially the macro level analysis,implies the hypothesis of the homogeneity of the sovereign currency issuer.Therefore,when the traditional international monetary theory is applied to the analysis of the internationalization of RMB,some explanatory variables are not able to explain the current situation,which leads to the "defects" in the theory of RMB internationalization.Secondly,RMB internationalization is a breakthrough practice of currency internationalization in emerging market economies.The success of RMB internationalization will explore an effective way to realize the diversification of the international monetary system and other emerging market economies.Because of the above reasons,domestic and foreign scholars' research on RMB internationalization has also been heated up,and many positive results have been achieved.However,the author believes that there are two shortcomings in the study of the current RMB Internationalization: one is from the perspective of "problems and Countermeasures",but less from the theoretical root;the two is to use the theoretical model of western scholars to carry out empirical analysis,and the use of original theoretical model is less.This paper first defines the concept of RMB internationalization,combs the related international monetary theory,and then from the origin of the theory of RMB internationalization to the realistic logic,in-depth analysis of the principle and mechanism of the RMB internationalization.On this basis,we set up the econometric model and index system of the influencing factors of RMB internationalization,and make an empirical analysis.In addition,through the review of the main international currency and the process of RMB internationalization,this paper summarizes the Enlightenment of the major international currency on the internationalization of RMB from the perspective of the evolution of the international monetary system.Finally,based on the empirical analysis and the deduction of historical facts,the paper puts forward policy recommendations for further promoting RMB internationalization.The internationalization of RMB is related to the discourse power and long-term economic interests of China in the international monetary system.It is a necessary strategy for the country to promote the internationalization of RMB.In 2017,the government work report put forward that we should adhere to the direction of exchange rate market reform and maintain the stable position of RMB in the global monetary system.In July 2017,the national financial work conference further clarified the need to "steadily push forward the internationalization of RMB".At present,the political and economic structure of the world is undergoing profound changes.The trend of international trade protectionism and reverse globalization,represented by the United States,is increasing.How to consolidate and continuously expand the achievements made in the internationalization of RMB in the complex international environment and to cope with the challenges and adjustments of the internationalization of the people's currency,we need to be in the currency countries of the emerging market economies.The interdisciplinary theory and practice have made a breakthrough.I hope this article can make some contributions to the research of this problem.