Research On The Cause Of Structural Differentiation Of China’s Real Estate Market And Policy Regulation

The healthy development of the real estate market concerns the national economy and the people’s livelihood.The structural differentiation trend of China’s real estate market gradually increasing in recently years.While housing prices in first-and second-tier cities continue to shoot up,three-,four-and five-tier cities are facing a heavy inventory problem.The coexistence of housing price bubble and high inventory is not only harmful for the healthy development of China’s macro economy,but also brings great challenges to the government’s policy regulation.Our government has implemented a series of differentiated regulation policies for cities with different development conditions to restrain the further aggravation of the structural differentiation trend in the real estate market.Although the current policy is basically in line with the current situation of China’s real estate market,it remains to be proven whether the policy tool’s choice meets the regulatory needs of specific market.This article aims to starting from the perspective of policy analysis,systematic research of the monetary cause of the structural differentiation in our country’s real estate market and how to adjust the policies for different cities with different development conditions.Firstly,this paper explores the monetary policy cause which from the outside of the cities that aggravates structural differentiation of China ’s real estate market by using the interactive effect dynamic panel model.Then,by using the quasi-natural experiment of "withdraw country districts ",this paper discusses the regulation effect of the local government’s land supply policy on housing price in key cities from the perspective of supply side.And based on side view of the demand in the city,this paper analyzes the influence of the demand transfer caused by the"purchase restriction" policy on the real estate market in the non-restricted cities by researching the spillover effect of housing "purchase restriction policy" in central cities.Finally,we put forward the policy recommendations according to relevant research results.A series of theoretical derivation and empirical test results show that:Fitstly,The effect of the increase of money supply on the urban housing price in China is far greater than that of interest rate,from the calculation results,The increase in money supply has pushed up prices in first-tier cities by 26.23%,but this effect in line Second,third,forth and fifth tier cities was attenuated to 11.03%,6.35%,2.50%and 1.56%respectively,and increase of money supply is the important external factor that exacerbates the structural differentiation of the real estate market in different cities.The results of mechanism analysis show that the influence is achieved through the land market.The policy of "withdraw country districts" can effectively stimulate local governments to expand the land supply scale under the condition of local government monopoly in the land market,the growth of land supply is still an effective way to curb the excessively rapid rise of housing prices in key cities even in the case of housing demand growth.Finally,the policy of purchase restriction will have an spillover effect on the real estate market in the surrounding non-restricted cities within a certain distance,the resulting demand transfer helps drive the price rise of unrestricted cities and reduce the pressure on housing inventory,however,this effect decreases with the increase of geographical distance.In conclusion,the key to suppress the further structural differentiation of China’s real estate market are the following:First,the central bank should consider the inclusion of real estate prices in the formulation of monetary policy,and should reasonably control the growth rate of the money supply to restrain the further aggravation of the trend of the property market differentiation.Second,for housing prices regulation of first-and second-tier cities,the central government should actively promote the supply side of the land market reform and change the endogenous incentive.mechanism of local government to maximize land revenue,by expanding the scale of land supply to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in key urban real estate market.Third,for the problems of inventory pressure of third,forth,fifth tier cities,the government can implement regional purchase restriction policy in the areas where the housing price is overheated,reduce the housing inventory pressure in the surrounding cities by promoting the effective transfer of market demand.