Research On Monitoring And Measurement Of Systemic Financial Risk In China

From the current situation of financial market in China,different types of financial risks have been multiplexed and emerged gradually.As the core of the economic system,financial stability is not only related to the normal operation of the market,but also has great significance to the overall economic stability.Based on the financial data which is from 2002 to 2016,this paper study on financial risk from three aspects:from monetary structure,financial market and commercial bank operation.This paper uses a variety of quantitative and empirical analysis methods to study.The main conclusions are as follows:The main conclusion of the monetary structure:first,Chinese basic currency supply dependent on the foreign exchange assets excessively in the long period.Once the external environment changes,the unconventional adjustment of the basic currency will have negative impact on the stability of the financial market directly.With the change of the economic situation,the Central Bank provides liquidity for the market through the use of proactive tools,so as to enhance its position in the financial market.But there are still some problems,such as the shock of the market interest rate,the contradiction between the volume and price and so on.Second,in recent years,there has been a significant change in the structure of Money supply.The decline in the trade surplus and the increase of the proportion of loans and other categories of subjects have worsened China's monetary structure,and the overall stability of the M2is gradually decreasing.Third,from the changes in the MRSI and the MRSI~*index,which show that there have been in the upward trend in the recent period.This means that in the future stage,China is facing significant financial risk pressure.The financial market angle:first,the risk change degree of the financial submarket has certain convergence in some period.Second,the macroeconomic pressure index has a significant ability to explain systemic financial risk.At the same time,financial risk also has a better ability to predict the economic risk.Third,the stock market suffers the highest loss under the given confidence level,followed by the foreign exchange market and the banking market.In addition,in the case of the maximum loss of the three markets,the loss degree of the overall market has a certain convergence.Finally,there are some convergence characteristics between the three markets for the degree of systemic risk spillovers.But the biggest contribution to the overall market loss still is the stock market,followed by the foreign exchange market and the bank market.The main conclusion of commercial banks operation:first,when monetary authority takes loosing policies,the leverage of commercial banks will rise synchronously.Second,the leverage of commercial banks has a significant impact on promoting systemic financial risk.Third,the leverage of commercial banks,in fact,acts as an intermediate variable in monetary policy,which plays an important role in the risk transfer and expansion of commercial banks.Fourth,the lag phase leverage has a significant negative impact on systemic financial risk.The hysteresis of the interest rate has a significant negative impact on the level of leverage.Fifth,according to the result of the impulse response function,in the long term,the three variables have a dynamic effect on each other.That is to say,the adjustment of monetary policy will affect the level of the leverage of commercial banks,and then affect the systemic financial risk.This article believes that there need more measures to monitor those kinds of risk,and keep the bottom line that do not make systematic financial risk occurred.In the future,we need to further consolidate and improve the framework of monetary policy,and constantly strengthen the regulation mode of monetary policy plus macro Prudential policy,to enhance the coordination and cooperation of those two parties.In addition,the regulatory framework should be reasonably defined for the existing regulatory framework and the supervision boundary,in order to carry out the responsibility and ownership of the supervision.At the same time,we should also pay attention to the coordination and cooperation between various departments.Finally,the government should take measures to promote enterprise investment enthusiasm,such as more tax cuts,take measures to reduce logistics costs,and vigorously promote the formation mechanism of state-owned enterprises and the reform of the price,appropriate to enhance the velocity of currency circulation,so as to save the quantity of money effectively,to control the bank leverage growth and decrease the debt level of private sector,which can reduce the debt pressure significantly,to ensure Chinese economic and financial stability and orderly make the deleveraging target come true.