| After the financial crisis in 2008,the financial gap of local governments has been increasing.The implementation of the "four trillion" plan in China has stimulated economic growth,but also brought about the continuous expansion of local government debt.In recent years,problems caused by local government debt have gradually emerged,and the crisis that local government debt may bring has become the focus of attention of all sectors of society.At the same time,China's urbanization rate increased from 17.90% in 1978 to 58.52% in 2017.With the acceleration of urbanization in China,local governments must raise a large amount of funds to support the construction of municipal infrastructure services.However,the financial capacity of local governments can not meet these financial needs.Local governments have to borrow money to obtain sources of funds,and the scale of local government debt has increased.As there are gaps in local government finance,the state prohibits local governments from issuing bonds,and the financing channels of local governments are limited,the urban construction investment bonds,as a new financing means of local governments,which are raised through the establishment of urban investment companies by local governments,have alleviated the predicament of local governments' shortage of funds to a certain extent.The urban construction investment bonds have gradually become a kind of financing means of local governments and the focus of the bond market.The continuous progress of urbanization has stimulated the rapid expansion of the scale of urban construction investment debt.As a part of the debt of local government financing platform,the scale of urban construction investment debt has accelerated and increased China's local government debt risk.At present,the information of local government debt in China is not transparent enough,the deviation of statistical caliber is not uniform,and it is impossible to obtain more accurate data on the scale of local government debt.Therefore,quantitative analysis of local government debt in China will be greatly limited.Firstly,this paper reviews the connotation,causes,impacts,countermeasures of local government debt in China and the literature of local government debt risk management at home and abroad.In view of the current situation of local government debt in China,this paper studies the causes,current situation and risks of local government debt in China,analyses the development status,trends and risks of urban construction investment bonds,and explores the relationship between urbanization,local government debt and construction investment bonds.Through the analysis of the development of foreign local government debt and risk management system,combined with China's national conditions,draw lessons from foreign experience,and draw some inspiration on local government debt management.Subsequently,this paper takes urban construction investment bonds as an agent variable to analyze,based on the perspective of urban construction investment bonds this paper studies the local government debt problem under the urbanization process,from the relationship between the urbanization level and the cost of local government debt financing,the relationship between urbanization level and the local government debt scale,the relationship between the scale of local government debt and the local economy,and the relationship between the scale of local government debt and housing prices.The promotion of urbanization has brought about the expansion of urban construction investment bonds,the increase of the scale of local government infrastructure investment,and the accelerated growth of local government financing costs,which has brought huge burdens to local governments and aggravated the risk of local government debt.The sample selection from 2008 to 2016,nine years,a total of 4566 urban construction investment bonds issuance data,taking the credit spread of urban construction investment bonds as the agent variable of local government's debt financing cost,in view of the level of urbanization and the cost of local government debt financing for empirical analysis in chapter 4.The results show that:(1)there is a significant positive correlation between the urbanization rate and the credit margin of the urban construction investment bonds under the 1% significant level,the higher the urbanization level,the greater the credit spreads of the urban construction investment bonds,the higher the cost of financing.(2)the higher the rating and debt rating of urban bond issuers,the greater the total issuance,the longer the bond maturity and those bonds with guaranteed,the smaller the risk of urban construction investment bond is,and the smaller the cost of financing is.(3)the issuer of the urban construction investment bond company with relatively good financial condition is less risky.(4)the level of urbanization and the credit spreads of urban construction investment bonds have obvious regional differences in different regions,and the impact on the central and eastern regions is significantly higher than that of the western regions.With the rapid improvement of urbanization level and the increasing demand for urban infrastructure construction,local governments have to increase a large amount of funds to support the construction of municipal infrastructure and the supply of public services,which makes the issuance of urban construction investment bonds have certain requirements.In chapter 5 4566 urban construction investment bonds samples were collected from thirty provinces in 2008-2016,and the empirical analysis was conducted on the level of urbanization and the scale of local government debt.The results of the empirical study show that:(1)there is a significant positive correlation between the urbanization rate and the issue scale of the urban construction investment bonds;(2)the local government will choose more capital to raise more funds to build infrastructure,which will increase the issue scale of the urban construction investment bonds.(3)the larger the local government's fiscal revenue and expenditure,the more urban construction investment bonds will be issued to raise funds.(4)the higher the interest rate of the urban construction investment bonds the more investment will be attracted and the issue scale of the urban construction investment bonds is increased.The longer the debt maturity of the urban construction investment bonds,the risk of the urban construction investment bonds is increasing,which leads to a decreasing trend in the issue scale of the urban construction investment bonds.(5)the stronger the profitability of the city investment corporation,the larger the scale of the debt issuance.(6)the urbanization process among different economic regions in China has obvious regional differences in the issuance of urban construction investment bonds.The eastern region has the greatest impact,followed by the central region,and the western region has the smallest impact.In recent years,the local government debt has been expanding.The impact of its rapid expansion on the local economy has attracted more and more attention.A total of 4566 urban construction investment bonds in 30 provinces in 2008-2016 years were selected as the samples in chapter 6,and the relationship between the scale of local government debt and local economic growth from the perspective of urban construction investment bonds was analyzed.The empirical results show that in the 1% significant level,the scale of the urban construction investment bonds is positively correlated with the GDP,and the two times of the scale of the urban construction investment bonds is negatively related to the GDP,and the urban construction investment bonds scale and the local economic growth show a significant inverted "U" type nonlinear relationship.As a whole,the scale of the urban construction investment bonds will significantly promote the development of local economy,but when the scale of the urban construction investment bonds exceeds a certain threshold,it will have a negative impact on the local economic growth.The impact of the scale of urban construction investment bonds issuance on the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.Meanwhile,the scale of local government debt has been expanding,and the local housing price level has also shown a rising trend.4566 urban construction investment bonds scale data by 30 provinces in 2008-2016 years are selected as research samples in chapter 7,and the relationship between the scale of local government debt and housing prices from the perspective of urban construction investment bonds was analyzed.The empirical results show that the scale of local urban construction investment bonds is positively correlated with the housing price at the 1% significant level,and the increase of the scale of urban construction investment bonds will lead to the rise of local housing prices.There are regional differences,and the eastern region is more significant than the central and western regions.Based on the conclusions of the above empirical analysis,the paper finally summarizes the debt problems of local governments under the urbanization process from the perspective of urban construction investment debt,and puts forward relevant policy recommendations:(1)In the process of promoting urbanization,clarify the relationship between urban investment companies and local government investment and financing platforms and local governments,and control them reasonably.The level of urbanization should be improved,the management of local government financing platform should be strengthened,the credit risk of urban construction investment debt should be effectively prevented,and then the financing costs of local government should be managed,so as to promote the harmonious and stable development of local economy.(2)According to the level of urbanization,we should reasonably judge the credit risk of urban construction investment bonds.Without affecting the funds needed by local governments,we should issue urban construction investment bonds and at the same time improve the level of urbanization in our country,so as to avoid blocking the pace of urbanization construction and the growth of local economy because of the occurrence of credit risk of urban construction investment bonds and the rising cost of local government debt financing.While promoting the process of urbanization,we should promote the development of urban construction investment bonds and rationally plan the scale of urban construction investment bonds to ensure local economic growth.(3)Raising local government revenue through multiple channels,rationally planning the expenditure,establishing a reasonable credit guarantee mechanism and improving the rating system of urban construction investment bonds are conducive to better regulating the credit risk of urban construction investment bonds and stabilizing the local economy.(4)Paying attention to the characteristic indicators of urban investment debt,paying attention to the financial situation of urban investment enterprises,effectively controlling the debt level of urban investment companies,and strengthening the management of information disclosure of urban investment companies can alleviate the credit risk caused by information asymmetry,help to standardize the urban investment debt market,effective control local government debt financing cost and promote local economic development.(5)Give full play to the role of the government,rationally plan the investment direction of debt,make clear the use of funds,effectively use the funds to carry out relevant municipal construction,promote the urbanization process in an orderly manner,and release the potential of economic growth.(6)Reasonable control of the issuing scale of urban construction investment bonds and clear investment direction of debt funds are conducive to effective regulation and control of housing prices.The innovation of this paper lies in:(1)Make up for the lack of quantitative research.The existing literature on local government debt in China focuses on countermeasures and suggestions,and qualitative analysis.Based on the data of urban construction investment bond issuance as the agent variable,this paper establishes an empirical analysis of the econometric model,quantitatively explains the relationship between urbanization level,the cost of local government debt financing and the scale of local government debt,local economy and housing prices,and makes up for the shortage of current quantitative research and analysis.(2)Innovation in research angle.Most of the research on local government debt in China is based on the scale of debt or the impact analysis of regional indicators by selecting regional data,and the perspective is relatively single.This research perspective is relatively new.It combines the urbanization process with local government debt and urban construction investment debt.From the perspective of local government debt financing in the context of urbanization,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the local government debt risk in China,filling the defects of most of the current empirical research analysis is too simple.(3)The sample data are more comprehensive and rich,and the selection of index variables is more extensive.This paper chooses a wide range of data coverage,the sample size is more comprehensive and rich than previous studies,and the data support is stronger and more convincing.The index factors involved in Chapter 4 and 5 are broader and deeper,and the increase of the number of variables is considered more comprehensively,which helps to better understand the impact of multiple factors on it.(4)The research has strong foresight and pertinence.Chapter 3 combines with the relevant policies of local government debt and urban construction investment bond issued in recent years in China,draws lessons from foreign management experience in the development of local government debt,and expounds the enlightenment of local government debt in China,which is forward-looking and targeted.(5)This study takes into account the differences of spatial regions and has a better guiding role for the development of local government debt in different regions of China.(6)Extension of research dimension.Chapter 6 and 7 explore the impact of local government debt scale on local economy and local housing prices from the perspective of urban construction investment debt,elaborate the impact of local government debt,and provide empirical support for the study of local government debt in China. |
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