The Effect Of Sino-Foreign Bilateral Investment Treaties On Linkages Of Value Chain

At present,the trend of economic anti-globalization is spreading,and Sino-US trade frictions are unpredictable,and the reconstruction of global value chain has become a prominent feature of the evolution of economic globalization.In the absence of global investment agreements,Bilateral Investment Treaties play an increasingly prominent role in the reconstruction of global value chains.At present,there are two typical characteristics of Bilateral Investment Treaties between China and foreign countries.First,there are a large number of Bilateral Investment Treaties signed between China and foreign countries,but the terms are relatively old.Second,Bilateral Investment Treaties between China and foreign countries have a high degree of market concentration,Countries along“Belt and Road”accounting for the majority.Third,international investment disputes occur from time to time,but the dispute settlement mechanism is not perfect.Fourth,it is possible to conclude high standards and liberalize investment rules.Closely related to this is the fact that the division of labor in the global value chain gradually slowed down after the financial crisis,and showed obvious regional characteristics.China has gradually moved to the central position of the global value chain,and the global value chain has formed a "tripod" structure centered on the United States,Germany and China.The participation degree of China's various industries in the value chain has obvious differences,and the participation degree of capital-intensive industries in the value chain is deeper.On the basis of the theoretical model,this paper draws an important proposition: Bilateral Investment Treaties affect bilateral value chain linkages mainly through three channels: shortening institutional distance,reducing trade costs and investment-driven.This paper uses the latest published data of value-added trade and Bilateral Investment Treaties from 2000 to 2014 to quantitatively analyze the relationship,in which Bilateral Investment Treaties use the method of quantitative scoring to measure their depth.The results show that: firstly,in general,the signing of Bilateral Investment Treaties promotes bilateral value chain linkages,and with the deepening of the terms,the promotion effect is increasing,but the impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on value chain linkages shows obvious differences in terms.In this paper,two-stage least squares method and Difference in Difference method are used to make further tests,and the measurement results are still robust and reliable.Secondly,this paper examines the impact mechanism.Bilateral investment agreements promote the value chain linkages between the two countries mainly by shortening the institutional distance between the two countries and reducing trade costs,but the investment-driven mechanism(including "bring in" and "go out")has not played its due role.Thirdly,from the perspective of time dimension,industry heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity,this paper makes a series of extended analysis.From the time dimension,first,the signing of Bilateral Investment Treaties has a greater positive effect on the linkages of bilateral value chains than the entry into force of Bilateral Investment Treaties.Although the specific clauses are legally valid only after the Bilateral Investment Treaties enter into force.However,Bilateral Investment Treaties have expected effects after signing,and the "good news" released by the signing of Bilateral Investment Treaties is more helpful than the entry into force of the agreements.Second,the impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on value chain linkages is not fully apparent in the current period,and the promotion effect has obvious lag characteristics.Third,the "upgraded version" of Bilateral Investment Treaties can more effectively promote bilateral value chain linkages.From the perspective of industry heterogeneity,asset-specific industries have obvious characteristics of institutional dependence,and Bilateral Investment Treaties have greater impact on the value chain linkages of industries with stronger asset specificity.The embedding of global value chains will be constrained by financing constraints,and the higher the dependence of Bilateral Investment Treaties on financing,the greater the impact of value chain linkages.The upstream industry has obvious monopoly power,and Bilateral Investment Treaties have greater impact on the value chain linkages of the downstream industry.Compared with the service industry,Bilateral Investment Treaties have a stronger positive effect on the relationship between manufacturing bilateral value chains.The promotion effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties on the value chain linkages between labor-intensive and capital-intensive industries does not show significant differences.From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,Bilateral Investment Treaties between China and non-G7 countries,China and countries along the belt and road have greater impact on linkages of the value chain.The "political considerations" of signing Bilateral Investment Treaties with G7 countries are greater than "economic interests".Moreover,the higher the country risk index of trading partner countries,the more significant is the effect the signing and upgrading of Bilateral Investment Treaties on the linkage of value chain.The conclusion of this paper has important practical significance.First,we need to accelerate the implementation of China's Bilateral Investment Treaties strategy,upgrade existing Bilateral Investment Treaties,and reconstruct the global value chain network system.Second,we need to further improve the fair and impartial clauses,investment promotion and recognition clauses and damage compensation clauses in Bilateral Investment Treaties,so as to dredge the investment-driven mechanism of bilateral investment agreements.Third,we need to improve enterprises' utilization ratio of Bilateral Investment Treaties,effectively playing the guiding effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties.Establishing the coordination and communication mechanism of Bilateral Investment Treaties,giving full play to the long-term effects of Bilateral Investment Treaties;Fourthly,the negotiation of Bilateral Investment Treaties should take full account of the particularities of asset-specific industries,financing-dependent industries and service industries;Fifthly,we need to speed up the reform of domestic system,speed up the market opening of upstream industries,and give full play to the positive effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties on the upstream industries.Sixth,while actively promoting Sino-US Bilateral Investment Treaties negotiations,China should speed up the signing and upgrading of Bilateral Investment Treaties with the countries along the "belt and road",and accelerate the formation of a two-way "Conjugate Circulation" of the value chain between East and West.