| The impact of the central bank's monetary policy on micro enterprises' behaviors are implemented through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy,that is to say,the central bank uses interest policy,open market operations and other monetary policy tools,by influencing the intermediary indexes such as asset prices,credit interest rates and so on,to affects the social investment and consumption,finally realizes the expected goals.In recent 20 years,the world has appeared volatility of asset prices with the real estate prices,the stock price as the main representative,then the adjustment of asset prices destabilized the financial system and caused the recession for real economy.Especially,in the reality that investment is still the main driving force for China's economic growth,it is of great significance to study the effect of monetary policy on the investment behavior of enterprises through the asset price.At present,the studies on how monetary policy does affect economic indicators are mostly based on the macro level,less on a micro level.The macro research is cleared with the micro research.Due to the inherent inadequacy of macro data,there is still no clear understanding of the mechanism of monetary policy affecting micro enterprises' behaviors.At the same time,a few studies on the relationship between monetary policy and micro enterprises' behaviors are mainly focused on the discussion of the direct impact of monetary policy tools(such as interest rates,money supply,etc.)on corporations' investment and financing,which ignores the mechanism of monetary policy's asset-price transmission.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study this problem.This paper studies the mechanism of central bank's monetary policy affecting enterprises' investment behavior through asset price.In the first,the basic theories and literature of the transmission of monetary policy to asset prices,the transmission of asset price to enterprises' investment behaviors,and monetary policy affecting enterprises' investment behaviors have been reviewed,and the background of the topic on "monetary policy,asset prices,enterprises' investment" has been analyzed combining with the change of macro and micro economic environment in China since 1990 s.Secondly,this paper carry out empirical methods,such as multivariate nonlinear regression,the balance panel measuring,GMM estimation and so on,to study how monetary policy transmits to asset prices,how asset prices affect,how monetary policy affects enterprises' investment behaviors through asset prices,and how forward-looking monetary policy rising from the financial crisis affect enterprises' investment behaviors,whose purpose is to clarify the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to enterprises' investment via asset prices.Finally,this paper summarizes the main conclusions,and puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions,and further points out the possible deficiencies and future improvable directions of this paper.Research conclusions of this Doctoral thesis are summarized as below:(1)Based on the actual situation of China,analyzed the influence of shadow banking on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy,it is believed that shadow banking will have more influence on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China compared with developed economies.Through reviewing of central banks' monetary policy on asset prices at home and abroad,and combining the characteristics of monetary policy,analyzed the impact of transmission of monetary policy on asset prices,argues that monetary impact to a certain extent,represents the macroeconomic environment,including a variety of external factors impact on asset prices and the microscopic main body;Combined with the actual data in our country,this paper expounds the structural change in the balance sheet of our business and financing characteristics,and points out that corporate asset-liability ratio affect the financing ability,financing ability and further affect the investment ability;And according to the changes of the economic and financial situation of the global financial crisis,combed the monetary policy changes,the global financial system reform and the macro-prudential management in "monetary policy and macro-prudential policy" the importance of double pillar framework.(2)The transmission channels of monetary policy to the real estate price and the stock price are unimpeded,and the effect of monetary policy to the real estate price is optimal.It has found that the price-based and the quantity-based monetary policies both have significant impact on asset prices' changes in China,reverse changes in interest rates and asset prices,money supply and asset price changes direction;monetary policy have positive significant effect on the real estate prices' growth rate and stock prices' growth rate,the real estate prices' growth rate has negative significant impact on monetary policy,but the stock prices' growth rate have no significantly impact on monetary policy.As a whole,the effect of the real estate price's reaction to monetary policy is far more significant than the stock price's reaction to monetary policy,therefore,if the central bank should focus on asset prices,relative to the stock price,monetary policy can pay more attention ton the real estate prices.(3)The direct impact of asset price's fluctuation on enterprises' investment behavior is not significant,while indirectly affects the investment decision of enterprises by affecting the value of the assets held by the enterprise.The empirical results show that both of the growth rate of housing sales' price and the growth rate of commercial property sales' price have no strong effect on the growth rate of enterprises' investment,but the real estate price,through the value of the real estate stock,has significantly indirect effect on enterprises investment behavior.The value of the property held by private listed companies has a stronger effect on enterprises' investment behavior than state-owned listed companies.The impact of the value of property held by enterprises on the investment behavior of listed companies in the manufacturing industry is stronger than that of the overall sample enterprises and private sample enterprises.On the whole,there is a significant real estate mortgage guarantee effect in China,that is,the effect of real estate price on enterprises' investment behavior is unimpeded.(4)The indirect effect of China's monetary policy on micro enterprise investment is significant through asset price(real estate price and stock price).The empirical results show that,the indirect effect of monetary policy on enterprises' investment is significant through the value of property stock,that is,money supply can affect the growth rate of enterprises' investment much more through indirectly playing role on real estate prices than through stock price.The influence degree of monetary policy on non-state-owned enterprises' investment through asset price is stronger than that of state-owned enterprises.The capital adequacy ratio promotes the effect of the growth rate of enterprises' investment on monetary policy,but the counter-cyclical capital adequacy ratio has no significantly different impact on enterprises' investment before and after the implementation.(5)The forward-looking monetary policy being emerged after the financial crisis has a basic effect on the investment behavior of micro enterprises.This chapter establishes a forward-looking Taylor's Rule model which contains demand and efficiency of investment,and constructs a Integrated Conditions Index reacting on corporate balance sheets which is introduced to the forward-looking Taylor's Rule model.The empirical results show that,the reaction coefficients of short-term nominal interest rates responding on Integrated Conditions Index gap of over 80% of overall industry are significant,but differences of coefficients of response on different industries are large;e respond on inflation gap and the output gap.The forward-looking interest rates can have negative significant influence on the growth rate of investment in enterprise through real estate prices and real estate values,namely,improving forward-looking interest rates will reduce the enterprises' investment growth rate by interaction of forward-looking interest rates and real estate prices or real estate values. |
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