Analysis Of The Social Cost Of Economic Growth In China Based On PSVAR Model With Interactive Effects

In the process of rapid growth of China's economy,along with the acceleration of urbanization,the rapid accumulation of population and the widening gap between the rich and the poor,a series of social problems have arisen,bringing about a certain negative impact family stability,social security and the natural environment,which pose a threat to the healthy and stable development of the economy and society.Therefore,comprehensive analysis of the negative impact of economic growth on the economy and society,that is,the social cost of economic growth,has a certain theoretical guiding significance for the healthy and stable development of the economy and society.Based on this,in view of the negative impact of economic growth on the economy and society,this paper comprehensively analyzes the social cost of economic growth,including family stability costs are measured based on divorce,social security costs are measured based on crime and environmental improvement costs are measured based on smog pollution.These social problems arising from the process of economic growth are not only related to economic and social factors,but also inseparable from the impact of unquantifiable overall social environmental factors,including changes in social structure and cultural awareness,and the impact of relevant policy systems.Since the overall social environmental factors are neither observable nor quantified by specific indicators,the traditional model does not consider the influence of this factor,and the interactive effect model can effectively capture the impact of such non-quantitative factors.Therefore,in order to to measure the non-quantitative overall social environment factors,this paper establishes the PSVAR model with interactive effect by introducing the interactive effect to the PSVAR model.Different from the structural abruptness reflectedby the dummy variables,the overall social environmental factors based on the interactive effects can reflect the gradual change and trend.As there is no literature to summarize the estimation of the PSVAR model with interactive effect,we propose the 2SLS-PCA estimator and analyze its finite sample properties based on Monte Carlo simulation.The results show that the proposed 2SLS-PCA estimator exhibits good finite sample properties and can quickly converge to a consistent estimator.On this basis,this paper analyzes the social cost of economic growth and its related overall social environment factors based on the PSVAR model with interactive effect.The results show that:Family stabilization costs measured by divorce account for 0.03% to 0.1% of real GDP,and its regional differences may be related to local ethnic characteristics and traditional culture.Regarding the influencing factors of divorce,different from previous experience judgments,family planning and compulsory education popularization and other policy factors have a relatively large impact on divorce,while economic and social factors such as economic growth and urbanization have relatively little impact on divorce.The overall social and environmental factors have a certain reducing effect on divorce,but this effect is steadily weakening.Therefore,while formulating the birth policy,the state should also reduce the cost of raising children and increase the employment rate,fundamentally improve people's willingness to bear,thereby improving the stability of marriage,and thus promoting family harmony and social stability.Social security costs measured by crime have a certain relationship with the natural geographical environment and population movement of each region,accounting for 2% to3% of the actual GDP of each region.Specifically,in border areas,resource-based areas,complex areas of ethnic and religious issues,and areas with frequent population movements,the social environmental cost of crime are relatively high.In general,increasing investment in education is conducive to reducing crime,but elementary education plays a major role.The overall social and environmental factors have a certain improvement effect on crime,but this effect is weakening.Therefore,while formulating relevant policies such as crime strikes,the government should also rationally allocate educational resources and increase the proportion of resources invested in the elementary education in order to fundamentally reduce crimes and thus promote social stability.Natural environmental cost measured by smog pollution is relatively stable,accounting for about 0.8% to 1.3% of the per capita GDP of each region,which is closer to the result measured by the systematic method of I-O model.This also indirectly indicates the feasibility of the method.The results of regional comparisons show that the natural environmental cost of economic growth are from Beijing to Tianjin,the Yangtze River Delta,other regions and the Pearl River Delta region.This may be related to the level of economic development,energy structure,natural environment,population density and road transport intensity of each region.The results of variance decomposition show that,in addition to its own inertia,smog pollution is mainly affected by the industrial structure,which may be related to the current slow economic transformation and the effect of smog treatment.The mitigation effect of policy environmental factors on smog pollution is still rising.Therefore,we must speed up the transformation of the economic structure while carrying out smog management to fundamentally reduce smog,enhance the credibility of the government and promote social stability.