| Since adopting the reform and opening-up policy,China's economy has developed rapidly and has leaped to become the second largest economy in the world.The rapid economic growth has also prompted the rapid expansion of debt leverage in China.Especially after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,China's debt accumulated rapidly,pushing up the debt leverage rate of the whole society.The changes of debt leverage rate and economic growth reflect the changes of China's economic structure,growth momentum and monetary and financial environment.It is well known that appropriate debt leverage can promote economic development effectively,but when the debt leverage ratio is too high,it will become the burden of economic development.Therefore,in order to realize the optimal adjustment of debt leverage,a number of regulatory measures have been introduced since 2015,by China's government.At the same time,the debt leverage rate of the whole society remains high.After a slight decline in 2018,it rose again in 2019 and reached a new record.The problem of the reduction and differentiation of debt utilization efficiency has become increasingly prominent.The dynamic change of debt leverage plays an important role in macro-economy and micro-economy.The essence of the changes of debt leverage lies in the external manifestation of monetary and financial fluctuations.Therefore,the choice of monetary policy is important for the adjustment of debt leverage.However,the practice of regulation and control in many countries has proved that there is a dilemma when adopting the traditional monetary policy to adjust the debt leverage.The specific manifestation is that excessive loose monetary policy will accelerate the expansion of debt scale,thus accumulating debt risk.If monetary policy continues to tighten,it may lead to liquidity shortage,a further decline in economic growth and even "debt-deflation".How to deal with the trade-off between "steady growth" and "leverage control" of monetary policy,and how to choose monetary policy through synchronous adjustment of supply side and demand side,especially through structural reform of supply side,so as to achieve the goal of matching supply and demand,which is the response of monetary authorities in debt leverage adjustment focus topic of attention.In response,the purpose of this paper is to study the adjustment of debt leverage rate and the choice of monetary policy systematically in China,based on the background of high-quality economic development and the optimization of debt leverage efficiency.By studying the driving mechanism and economic impact of the leverage ratio of national debt,this paper analyses the causes of high leverage in China and its impact on the formation of economy.This paper also points out the problems existing in the transmission mechanism of traditional monetary policy in China by studying the effect of traditional monetary policy on debt leverage ratio.Based on the perspective of structural reform,this paper studies the influence mechanism of liquidity stratification on monetary policy transmission in China's financial system,and further makes an empirical analysis of the effect of structural monetary policy in the stage of debt leverage adjustment.Finally,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on debt leverage management and monetary policy choice in the conclusion.The core content of this paper can be summed up as the following four aspects:Firstly,starting from the analysis of the evolution of China's debt leverage rate and the current situation of monetary and financial,this paper analyses the formation of China's "high leverage" from a historical perspective.This paper combs systematically the occurrence,the development and the economic,social and policy environments of debt activities of different economic entities in China behind the changes of debt leverage in each stage,and analyses emphatically the changes of domestic and foreign economic situation that our country is facing at present.As the rising and fluctuating of debt leverage will affect the stability of financial system,the reference index of the qualitative judgment of monetary policy should consider the trend and driving factors of debt leverage.In view of the current situation of monetary and financial development in China,this paper points out the difficulties and challenges faced by China's monetary policy,and that "stable leverage" is more important to China's current economic development.At present,the effectiveness of monetary policy mainly embodies in stabilizing the growth rate of leverage and restraining its excessive growth momentum.And improve the allocation efficiency of debt leverage in different sectors and regions.Secondly,to provide policy basis for whether different entities and regions have leverage space,the economic impact of debt leverage on China's economic growth is empirically analyzed from two aspects: the quantity of economic growth and the quality of economic growth.This paper constructs a VECM model to study the effect of real economic debt leverage on economic growth from a sectoral perspective.The results show that the change of debt leverage level in different sectors of China has significant difference in stimulating economic growth.The improvement of debt leverage level in government sector and non-financial enterprise sector has a positive impact on economic growth,and the positive stimulation of debt leverage level in government sector to economic growth is higher than that in non-gold sector.The level of debt leverage in the financial sector has a negative stimulating effect on economic growth,while the level of debt leverage in the residential sector has a negative stimulating effect.Then,the total factor productivity(TFP)of 31 provinces and cities in China is estimated from the perspective of subregion by using Solow residual value accounting method embedded in spatial econometric analysis.The results show that there are differences in investment efficiency among different regions in China.Further,the panel model is constructed to explore the impact of factors such as total factor productivity,indirect financing proportion,per capita GDP,industrial structure,ownership structure,degree of openness and R&D investment on debt leverage in the eastern,central and western regions.The results show that the factors affecting debt leverage are different in different regions.Total factor productivity,openness and industrial structure exert significant negative effects on the improvement of debt leverage.Other factors have different effects on debt leverage in different regions;it shows that the three major regional economic developments in China belong to different stages of development.Therefore,the adjustment of debt leverage should have spatial thinking,and the key areas and key links of the optimization and adjustment of debt leverage in China should be clarified.Thirdly,the paper studies the effect of traditional monetary policy on debt leverage ratio,and analyses the main reasons for blocked the transmission mechanism of traditional monetary policy in leverage regulation.To begin with,a theoretical model is constructed and the monetary and financial environment conducive to debt leverage adjustment is analyzed.Then,the VAR model is constructed to study the influence mechanism of four variables,including debt leverage rate,total factor productivity,interest rate and exchange rate.Empirical results show that in the initial stage of interest rate change,the positive stimulus to the growth rate of debt leverage gradually weakens,until the fifth stage re-enters the negative stimulus,and reaches the maximum stimulus near the ninth stage,then gradually weakens.The stimulus effect of exchange rate on the growth rate of debt leverage is not obvious,which is about in the fourth stage,negative stimulus effect,but this impact has been relatively weak,and in the subsequent period has maintained a negative impact,and total factor productivity can indeed play a weakening role in debt leverage,so we should pay close attention to the changing trend of total factor productivity in China.The above empirical results show that the transmission mechanism of traditional monetary policy in China has been blocked since the "deleveraging" task was put forward.The paper further analyses the reasons for the weakening of the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy from the following aspects: the impact of shadow banks on monetary control indicators,the sensitivity of micro-subjects to changes in monetary policy,and the liquidity analysis triggered by interbank supervision.Fourthly,in view of the weakening of the efficiency of traditional monetary policy regulation,this paper presents a theoretical model of "liquidity stratification" in China's financial system and an analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.It also makes an empirical analysis of the implementation effect of China's structural monetary policy since "deleveraging".The paper focuses on the effects of Standing Lending Facility,Medium-term Loan Facilities and Mortgage Supplementary Loans on debt leverage ratio.The empirical analysis of TVP-VAR model shows that three kinds of structural monetary policies have significant effects on debt leverage and economic growth in China.Among them,Mortgage Supplementary Loan has the best stimulating effect on "leverage control" and "steady growth",followed by the effect of Medium-term Lending Facilitation.However,it should be noted that in the long run,Medium-term Lending Facilities will have a negative effect on economic growth.Standing Lending Facility failed to achieve "leverage control" and "steady growth",so the monetary authorities should balance the choice of structural monetary policy instruments.Finally,based on the above conclusions,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the directions of debt leverage management and the choice of monetary policy.The management of debt leverage rate includes: First,policy-making organs should deleverage by means of market-oriented reform and improving total factor productivity,adhere to the quality reform;efficiency reform and power reform of economic development,further deepen the reform of financial system in the field of monetary finance,and enhance the ability of financial services to the real economy.For sectors and regions with high TFP,we should fully release their economic growth potential,while for backward production,we should try to adjust the debt leverage ratio through debt restructuring,debt replacement and other ways.Second,we should build an evaluation system of debt leverage management based on high-quality economic development as soon as possible.The evaluation system under the framework of debt leverage management should include the impact indicators of debt leverage ratio in different regions of China,and grasp the adjustment and optimization of debt leverage ratio based on the improvement of economic quality.The third is to promote the construction of multi-channel financing system in China.The supply side reform of capital market is the core of the financial supply side reform.We should speed up the market-oriented determination of social resource property rights,improve the current situation of the new third board and regional equity trading market,and strengthen the development of regional equity investment funds.At the same time,we should further improve the construction of the banking system,give full play to the differentiated characteristics of private banks,take financial science and technology as the main focus to expand the scope of financial services,and carry out diversified financial services.In order to achieve the purpose of increasing the proportion of direct financing of microeconomic subjects in the economic field,a multi-channel financing system should be constructed Fourthly,we should strengthen the macro Prudential Management,further improve the financial supervision system,and explore the regulatory methods and risk disposal mechanism suitable for the adjustment of debt leverage ratio through the implementation of the mode of rule supervision,classification supervision and technology supervision.In terms of the choice of monetary policy: first,we should grasp the strength and rhythm of regulation and control to create a good monetary and financial environment for the optimization and adjustment of debt leverage ratio.In the case of paying attention to the change of total debt leverage ratio,the monetary authority should also pay attention to the difference of debt sustainability of each department,and try to realize that the rising speed of the real economic sector's income is faster than that of its debt,so as to prevent the fast interest rate The rapid rise has increased the debt burden of the real economic sector.The second is to build a multi-objective and Multi Tool monetary policy framework,and create favorable conditions for the choice of China's monetary policy by building a Multi Tool regulatory system with appropriate scale,reasonable structure,flexible operation and controllable risk.The third is to strengthen the construction of interest rate corridor mechanism.The central bank should determine the target interest rate based on the judgment of economic and financial situation and liquidity,and carry out the corresponding open market operation,so as to reduce the actual loan interest rate as the goal to alleviate the debt pressure of all sectors of the real economy.Fourth,we should use structural monetary policy and open market business to dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy,expand the scope of financial structure covered by structural monetary policy,strengthen the information communication between the central bank and the market,and continue to improve the expected management system.Fifth,we should strengthen the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy,ensure that liquidity can enter the real economic sector through the implementation of monetary policy,and achieve the goal of promoting the upgrading and adjustment of industrial structure by exploring the coordination mechanism between monetary policy and fiscal policy,so as to achieve the optimization and adjustment the denominator of debt leverage structure by increasing the GDP in the debt leverage ratio index. |
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