| Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,China's economy has made remarkable achievements,with an average economic growth rate of 14.74%that creates a miracle of world economic development.Following the jump of China's total economic output to the second largest economy in the world in 2010,the total GDP in 2018 exceeded 90 trillion yuan and entered a new stage again.With the rapid development of economy,the basic economic system and economic structure of our country have also undergone significant changes.The socialist market economy system,which relies on market mechanism as the basic means of social resource allocation,has been initially established,while a new economic pattern of economic diversification and global distribution has been formed.With the rapid development of China's economy and the change of economic structure,a financial system that is compatible with modern economy and conforms to China's national conditions has been initially established,forming a financial system structure with state-owned financial institutions as the leading factor,market efficiency as the principle and multi-level asset market as the support.If there is no systematic financial risk in the formation of China's current financial system structure and financial development,it is obviously "closed eyes and talks".However,the practice of 40 years of reform and opening up shows that in the process of market-oriented reform and opening up in the past 40 years,there has never been a systematic financial risk in China.This phenomenon is not only inconsistent with the economic cycle and financial cycle theory,but also with the practice of countries around the world.It is also extremely rare.The reasons for this are as follows:(1)The superiority of the socialist system makes the systemic financial risk to always be in a controllable range;(2)The effectiveness of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control makes the systematic risks accumulated in financial operations to continue to be resolved;(3)The rapid development of the economy and the continuous optimization of the financial structure have alleviated the systemic financial risks and the relative risk levels have been continuously reduced.However,after entering a new era,the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing,the external economic shock is getting stronger and stronger,the uncertainty of economic policies is becoming more and more prominent,and the misalignment of financial innovation and financial supervision is increasingly obvious.In this realistic context,China's systemic financial risks are not only impossible to resolve in development,but are more likely to accelerate the deterioration of systemic financial risks,and may even become a tipping point for systemic financial risks.Therefore,it is undoubtedly of great significance to systematically explore the emergence,measurement,evolution and monitoring and prevention of systemic financial risks under the socialist market economy system in theory and practice in order to establish the socialist economic theory with Chinese characteristics and ensure the stable and healthy operation of China's economy and financeThe carrier of systemic financial risk is the financial system.The financial system structure determines the risk source,influence degree,mutual relationship and evolution law of systemic financial risk.When we Iook at systemic financial risks,we must first base on the financial system structure,and then explore the systematic financial risk measurement and their relationship based on the characteristics of the financial system structure.On this basis,the evolution process and law of systemic financial risk are further discussed,and a statistical monitoring system for systemic financial risk is constructed,providing a scientific basis and effective policy guidance for preventing systemic financial risks.It is not difficult to find out that China's financial system structure be more similar to the typical bank-oriented financial system structure type.The five major state-owned banks of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,Agricultural Bank of China,Bank of China,China Construction Bank and China Bank of Communications are also systemic important banks under the banking system,which means that as long as we seize the operational risk characteristics of the five state-owned banks can basically reflect the status of China's systemic financial risks.In order to give a quantitative measure of systemic financial risk in China,this paper puts forward a measurement model of systemic financial risk in China based on the characteristics of financial crisis under the structure of bank-led financial system and the corresponding basis between the occurrence of systemic financial risk in China and the outbreak of financial crisis under the structure of bank-led financial system.On this basis,we start from the perspective of bank asset composition and conduct an positive research of the relationship between various asset risks and systemic financial risks of systemically important banks.Through the stress test analysis,the main risk sources of systemic financial risks in China are explored,which provides realistic basis and technical support for constructing the corresponding statistical monitoring system and seeking to resolve the systemic financial risks in China.The analysis in this paper shows that:(1)From overall view,China's systemic financial risks are not high,the probability of systemic financial risks is small,and the financial system operates safely.Even in the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the domestic stock market crash in 2015,systemic financial risks are also within the controllable interval;(2)China's systemic financial risks have their own deteriorating trend,which must be highly valued;(3)As far as the current situation is concerned,the main risk source of systemic financial risk in China is the real estate market,followed by the foreign exchange market,and once again the interbank borrowing market;(4)Stress test analysis shows that if the average price of the real estate market is reduced by 34.14%,the exchange rate of US dollar against the RMB will drop to 5.5RMB/?,and the interbank offered rate will fall to around o,all of which will inevitably trigger systemic financial risks;(5)The bond market and the stock market have basically no impact on systemic financial risks.There are three main reasons for this.First,the current separate operating system arrangement hinders the transmission of risks,and second,the product structure dominated by risk-free bonds provides protection.Third,the retail investor structure of the retail market has played a decentralized effect;(6)Although China's financial operation has always been in a relatively safe area,the downward pressure on the economy,the possible deterioration of the external environment,and the accumulation and evolution of systemic financial risks will inevitably deepen the hidden dangers of systemic financial risks.At present,the focus of China's systemic financial risk monitoring should be placed in the real estate market and the foreign exchange market.Maintaining a stable exchange rate and a moderate bubble in housing prices is the key to avoiding systemic financial risksThe innovations of this article are as follows:(1)The hierarchical structure of systemic financial risk in China is proposed,while the internal relationship and mechanism between the hierarchical structures are analyzed by method of positive research;(2)A systematic financial risk measurement model conforming to China's financial system structure is constructed,and the number interface of China's systemic financial risk bottom line is clarified;(3)The risk sources of systemic financial risks in China is located,and the significance of controlling the risks of real estate market,foreign exchange market and interbank borrowing market to prevent systemic financial risks in China is clarified;(4)The statistical monitoring system of systemic financial risk and the order of important market monitoring are constructed. |
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