Research On Sequential Choice Behavior Of Consumers Considering Sequential Search And Variety Seeking

The rapid development of information technology has made consumers’ behavioral data generated by sequential search and choice in various online trading platforms explode.At the same time,the ability of online platforms to use information technology to collect consumer behavior data has also greatly increased.Therefore,it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to find out the potential interest and choice intention of consumers based on the behavior information of consumers in order to provide technical support for enterprises to increase consumer loyalty and attract new consumer groups.However,most of the existing research on consumer choice behavior intentions is carried out from consumer historical choice behavior information,thereby ignoring the sequential search behavior information that reflects consumers’ potential interests and preferences,which causes that the results of consumer behavior analysis are not sufficiently real-time and dynamic.Therefore,the analysis of potential choice behavior intention based on the search behavior information of consumer sequence has become the focus of consumer behavior and marketing.In order to more accurately model consumer sequential choice behavior and apply it to management practice,this study starts from the two perspectives of sequential search and variety seeking,using sequential search theory,consideration set theory,and variety seeking theory and circadian rhythm theory,by establishing a consumer stochastic sequential choice model that considers various factors,and using data mining and computer simulation and other technologies,design four sub-researches in parallel with each other in order to effectively explore how to based on consumer sequential choice behavior information to accurately analyze its future behavior intentions.Research 1 uses sequential search and information fusion theory,data mining and computer simulation technology,and establishes consumer sequential search and choice models to explore how to integrate consumers’ online and offline search behavior information for consumers to recommend the optimal search path;research 2 uses sequential search theory,establishes a stochastic sequential choice model that reflects consumer search cost heterogeneity,adopts the newly proposed parameter estimation method,and through computer simulation technology to research consumer sequential choice behavior considers sequential search;Research 3 uses circadian rhythm and variety seeking theory to establish a consumer stochastic choice model.This model uses Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods and computer simulation techniques to discuss and consider the influence of consumers’ circadian rhythm and variety seeking on the accuracy of their sequential choice behavior intention prediction;Study 4 establish a variety seeking model of product attribute distance based on consideration set theory and variety seeking theory to measure the variety seeking degree of consumers,and to quantitative research the degree of overall variety and heterogeneity consumers variety seeking.From the perspective of consumer sequential search,the following research conclusions can be drawn:(1)The net utility value obtained by searching with the reserved utility theory is higher than that using the expected utility theory and the effect is lower when the search cost is lower the more obvious.(2)Compared with the traditional kernel smooth frequency simulator parameter estimation method,the new parameter estimation method proposed in this study is superior to the traditional parameter estimation method in terms of efficiency and accuracy of parameter estimation.(3)This study considers its impact on consumer search costs not only from the market and individual levels of product factors,but also from the perspective of overall consumers and heterogeneous consumers.From the perspective of consumer diversity,the following research conclusions can be drawn:(1)Compared with models that do not consider consumer heterogeneity or circadian rhythm heterogeneity,consumer heterogeneity and circadian rhythm heterogeneity are covered of consumer product diversity seeking models can better fit consumers ’true diversity seeking behavior.(2)the degree of consumer variety seeking is related to the product’s attribute type,and the variety-seeking degree of low-attribute product is higher than the high attribute product.In theory,this study explores the inherent relationship between sequential search,variety seeking and sequential choice behavior from the perspective of consumers’ objective sequential choice behavior,clarifying the impact of consumer search costs,circadian rhythm heterogeneity and consumer variety seeking on consumer’s sequential choice behavior.Thereby enriching the research perspective of consumer’s sequential choice behavior.At the same time,factors such as consumer search cost,circadian rhythm,and variety seeking heterogeneity can better fit the actual sequential choice behavior of consumer individuals,and thus have a stronger practical significance.In terms of management practice,this research can provide information reference for product manufacturing companies to make product planning,positioning and design plans in the early stage,and at the same time,provide decision support for the design of marketing plans and heterogeneous customer relationship management for product operating companies.In terms of methods,unlike most traditional parameter estimation methods,this study considers the random effects of consumer search costs from the perspective of consumer sequential search and selection behavior,resulting in the traditional parameter estimation methods have decreased in efficiency and accuracy,so this study has made new attempts at parameter estimation methods.In addition,compared with the traditional sequential search and selection model,this study considers the cost of consumers’ offline search.Therefore,the traditional sequential search and choice model has been improved.