| The intergenerational income mobility of society,which is an important factor to measure the social opportunity equality,reflects the dependence of the economic income on family background and external environment.It is related to the rational allocation of social resources and the formulation of government public policies.At each stage of the life cycle,the personal factors,the environment,and the society can be made of the key factors that regulate opportunity equality.The improvement of social environment and family environment can improve the intergenerational income mobility.The civilized and harmonious social culture can reduce the exclusion from poverty group.A healthy and positive family environment can help improve the children’s living habits and the human capital.The government public expenditure can also play a key role in improving income mobility,such as the maternal and child health system,the public education system,and the markets(labor,capital,and land)system.Under the regulation of public policies,the social environment can become more equal.There are three main views on the level of intergenerational income mobility in China:The first,the development of economy has effectively promoted the intergenerational income mobility;The second,the increasement of income inequality has stimulated the solidification of the economic class.The children of rich families have a higher probability of maintaining the original economic status,and the social intergenerational income mobility is relatively low;The third,the intergenerational income mobility in China is at a medium level in the world.The increasement of government public expenditure can further increase the social mobility.In summary,since the intergenerational income mobility in China has not yet been determined,it is both theoretical and realistic to use a more scientific method to accurately estimate the level of intergenerational income mobility,and to conduct an in-depth analysis of its formation mechanism.The core questions of this paper are as follows: Measuring the intergenerational income mobility in China;Exploring the transfer mechanism of intergenerational income mobility;Analyzing the impact of public policy on intergenerational income mobility.This article was mainly based on the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS).It used IV estimation,quantile regression,and transition matrix analysis to measure the intergenerational income mobility in society,and used structural equation model analysis to analyze the internal transmission of intergenerational income mobility.The impact of income inequality on intergenerational income mobility was discussed using the ‘counterfactual analysis method’.The effects of redistribution policies on the intergenerational income mobility was analyzed using numerical simulation methods.In addition,this article made an international comparison of the intergenerational income mobility based on the Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility(GDIM)(2018).The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In recent years,the intergenerational income mobility of society is still relatively low.The estimation of intergenerational income elasticity with instrumental variables is 0.322.The mobility in cities is lower than that in rural areas.The intergenerational income of father and daughter is higher than that of father and son.Households with a median income distribution function have the highest intergenerational income mobility.Households at both ends of the income distribution function show greater income inheritance.(2)From the family perspective,the human capital,social capital and wealth capital have a significant intermediary role in the process of intergenerational income transfer,with a contribution rate of 40.92%.The direct effect of intergenerational transmission in rural areas is greater.From the perspective of gender differences,human capital and wealth capital have a significant mediating effect in the process of father and son’s income transmission,with a contribution rate of 19.72%.Social capital and wealth capital have a significant mediating effects in the process of father and daughter’s income transmission,with a contribution rate of 15.22%.(3)From the perspective of market environment,income inequality has a structural impact on intergenerational income mobility.Opportunity inequality has an inhibitory effect on intergenerational income mobility,and efforts inequality contribute to the increase of intergenerational income mobility.(4)From the perspective of public policy,increasing the proportion of social redistribution will help the balanced distribution of social resources and the increase of intergenerational income mobility,but reduce the economic development of society.the efficiency and fairness of the economy cannot be optimal at the same time.In addition,raising the tax rate appropriately and raising the tax threshold will be more beneficial to low-income groups;lowering the tax rate and lowering the tax threshold will be more beneficial to high-income groups.(5)Through international comparison,it can be found that the intergenerational income mobility in China gets a high rank among developing countries and gets a middle rank in the whole world.The intergenerational mobility still needs to be further improved.Although it is difficult to achieve optimal economic efficiency and equity at the same time,Chinese society still needs to vigorously develop the economic level and increase the scale of public spending.The purpose of policy formulation is to increase the economic income of disadvantaged groups,improve the quality of public education and the market return of human capital,and promote the improvement of intergenerational income mobility.The policy implication of the above conclusions is that the intergenerational income mobility of society is the result of the interaction between the market environment,labor capital factors and public policies.Improving the intergenerational income mobility needs to further optimize resource allocation,improve the social security system,balance efficiency and fairness,and coordinate regional balanced development.The possible innovations and contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the signal theory,the Item Response Theory was used to estimate the potential human capital,the potential social capital,and the potential wealth capital.The estimated human capital,social capital and wealth capital contained abundant capital information.(2)Decomposing income inequality into opportunity inequality and effort inequality,this paper discussed the impact of income inequality on intergenerational income mobility,and provided a new perspective for the theoretical analysis between income inequality and income mobility.(3)Based on the OLG model,the intergenerational transfer model of economic income was constructed.The intergenerational changes of economic income were analyzed by numerical simulation.The public education investment,personal human capital investment,family endowment and social redistribution ratio were discussed.Further,this article discussed the impact of the social redistribution ratio on intergenerational income mobility. |
